Compendium › Surge › VRTX
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
VRTX
Alpaca Tradeable

Surge's Analysis

Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 12 trades in period

-6.11%
Year to Date Return
$9,726.03
Current Value
42%
Win Rate
$10,359.47
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-05-06 10:59:59

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
49.5 neutral
20d Trend
-1.8%
5d Trend
-1.9%
EMA20 Dist
-0.6%
ATR%
2.9%
Range Pos
71%
Bounce Ratio
1.0×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

7
Lifetime
Confidence: 85%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
3.5/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.2/10
Raw Quality 8.7/100
× Confidence 0.85 = 7.4

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (85%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
6,860
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-02 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
86 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)

Market Closed (4 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$10,359.47
Current Value
$9,726.03
Period P&L
$-633.44
Max Drawdown
-16.8%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.24

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
12
Winners / Losers
5 / 7
Best Trade
+2.61%
Worst Trade
-5.15%
Avg Trade Return
-0.51%
Avg Hold Time
1.7d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$242,464.53
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-633.44
Net P&L (after fees)
$-633.44
Gross Return
-6.11%
Net Return (after fees)
-6.11%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 VRTX Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 86 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 12 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $10,359.47 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jan 7, 2026 12:50pm ET $482.38 21 $10,129.98 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 8, 2026 1:10pm ET $477.14 21 $10,019.84 $10,249.32 $-110.15
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 16, 2026 11:35am ET $445.76 22 $9,806.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 20, 2026 10:00am ET $433.93 22 $9,546.35 $9,988.95 $-260.37
(-2.7%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 20, 2026 10:30am ET $438.99 22 $9,657.78 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 21, 2026 10:05am ET $449.99 22 $9,899.67 $10,230.84 +$241.89
(+2.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 21, 2026 10:20am ET $451.87 22 $9,941.09 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 21, 2026 3:00pm ET $463.66 22 $10,200.52 $10,490.28 +$259.44
(+2.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Jan 22, 2026 12:20pm ET $469.12 22 $10,320.64 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 23, 2026 12:20pm ET $464.25 22 $10,213.50 $10,383.14 $-107.14
(-1.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Jan 26, 2026 11:20am ET $475.83 21 $9,992.46 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 27, 2026 11:50am ET $482.71 21 $10,136.81 $10,527.49 +$144.35
(+1.4%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Jan 28, 2026 10:55am ET $477.33 22 $10,501.26 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 29, 2026 11:25am ET $479.44 22 $10,547.68 $10,573.91 +$46.42
(+0.4%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Feb 4, 2026 10:10am ET $475.86 22 $10,468.81 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 4, 2026 3:50pm ET $469.90 22 $10,337.91 $10,443.01 $-130.90
(-1.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 10:35am ET $469.11 22 $10,320.42 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 11:05am ET $471.80 22 $10,379.71 $10,502.30 +$59.29
(+0.6%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Feb 12, 2026 10:35am ET $467.66 22 $10,288.52 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 12, 2026 11:30am ET $462.88 22 $10,183.36 $10,397.14 $-105.16
(-1.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
11 🟢 BUY Feb 13, 2026 1:20pm ET $500.37 20 $10,007.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 13, 2026 2:55pm ET $492.85 20 $9,857.00 $10,246.74 $-150.40
(-1.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
12 🟢 BUY Mar 10, 2026 9:30am ET $481.61 21 $10,113.91 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 18, 2026 9:50am ET $456.82 21 $9,593.20 $9,726.03 $-520.71
(-5.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
8d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $9,726.03
Net Profit/Loss: $-273.97
Total Return: -2.74%
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