Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Signals generated 2026-05-06 05:18:15

Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
62.8 neutral
20d Trend
+12.6%
5d Trend
+8.3%
EMA20 Dist
+8.3%
ATR%
4.8%
Range Pos
29%
Bounce Ratio
1.8×
Green/Red 10d
7/3
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 5, 2026

18
Lifetime
Confidence: 90%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
3.5/35
Total Return
10.7/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.6/15
Consistency
5.0/10
Raw Quality 19.8/100
× Confidence 0.90 = 17.8

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (90%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
8,729
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
91 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)

Market Closed (4 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$12,782.77
Current Value
$11,853.16
Period P&L
$-929.61
Max Drawdown
-18.4%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.07

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
20
Winners / Losers
4 / 16
Best Trade
+15.36%
Worst Trade
-5.48%
Avg Trade Return
-0.31%
Avg Hold Time
1.1d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$477,093.55
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-929.61
Net P&L (after fees)
$-929.61
Gross Return
-7.27%
Net Return (after fees)
-7.27%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 VXX Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 91 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 20 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $12,782.77 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Dec 31, 2025 3:20pm ET $26.61 482 $12,826.02
🔴 SELL Jan 2, 2026 10:00am ET $26.01 482 $12,536.82 $12,546.59 $-289.20
(-2.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 2, 2026 11:00am ET $26.49 473 $12,529.77
🔴 SELL Jan 2, 2026 11:25am ET $26.22 473 $12,402.06 $12,418.88 $-127.71
(-1.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 5, 2026 11:15am ET $26.27 472 $12,398.83
🔴 SELL Jan 5, 2026 1:40pm ET $26.00 472 $12,269.64 $12,289.69 $-129.19
(-1.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 7, 2026 10:15am ET $26.50 463 $12,269.50
🔴 SELL Jan 7, 2026 11:00am ET $26.22 463 $12,139.86 $12,160.05 $-129.64
(-1.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Jan 13, 2026 10:10am ET $26.15 464 $12,135.22
🔴 SELL Jan 14, 2026 10:00am ET $27.70 464 $12,852.80 $12,877.63 +$717.58
(+5.9%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Jan 14, 2026 10:45am ET $27.83 462 $12,858.01
🔴 SELL Jan 14, 2026 11:20am ET $27.36 462 $12,640.32 $12,659.94 $-217.69
(-1.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Jan 15, 2026 3:40pm ET $26.42 479 $12,655.18
🔴 SELL Jan 16, 2026 1:05pm ET $26.13 479 $12,513.88 $12,518.63 $-141.31
(-1.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Jan 20, 2026 1:35pm ET $29.08 430 $12,504.44
🔴 SELL Jan 21, 2026 10:00am ET $27.72 430 $11,919.60 $11,933.79 $-584.84
(-4.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Jan 23, 2026 3:50pm ET $26.53 449 $11,911.07
🔴 SELL Jan 26, 2026 10:05am ET $26.23 449 $11,776.96 $11,799.67 $-134.12
(-1.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Jan 27, 2026 12:55pm ET $26.70 441 $11,774.70
🔴 SELL Jan 28, 2026 1:25pm ET $27.02 441 $11,915.82 $11,940.79 +$141.12
(+1.2%)
END_OF_DAY
0m held
11 🟢 BUY Jan 29, 2026 10:40am ET $28.57 418 $11,940.17
🔴 SELL Jan 29, 2026 11:10am ET $28.13 418 $11,758.34 $11,758.96 $-181.83
(-1.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
12 🟢 BUY Jan 30, 2026 12:00pm ET $27.64 425 $11,747.00
🔴 SELL Jan 30, 2026 12:20pm ET $27.36 425 $11,627.96 $11,639.92 $-119.04
(-1.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
13 🟢 BUY Feb 3, 2026 10:20am ET $26.93 432 $11,633.76
🔴 SELL Feb 3, 2026 10:45am ET $26.64 432 $11,508.48 $11,514.64 $-125.28
(-1.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
14 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 10:10am ET $29.57 389 $11,502.73
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 11:15am ET $29.13 389 $11,331.57 $11,343.48 $-171.16
(-1.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
15 🟢 BUY Feb 10, 2026 3:50pm ET $27.08 418 $11,319.44
🔴 SELL Feb 11, 2026 12:20pm ET $26.80 418 $11,202.40 $11,226.44 $-117.04
(-1.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
16 🟢 BUY Feb 11, 2026 1:05pm ET $27.06 414 $11,202.84
🔴 SELL Feb 11, 2026 2:15pm ET $26.77 414 $11,082.78 $11,106.38 $-120.06
(-1.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
17 🟢 BUY Feb 12, 2026 10:35am ET $27.19 408 $11,093.52
🔴 SELL Feb 12, 2026 11:05am ET $28.05 408 $11,442.85 $11,455.71 +$349.33
(+3.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
18 🟢 BUY Mar 6, 2026 9:30am ET $33.88 338 $11,451.44
🔴 SELL Mar 9, 2026 3:40pm ET $32.03 338 $10,824.45 $10,828.72 $-626.99
(-5.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.2d held
19 🟢 BUY Mar 18, 2026 9:30am ET $32.92 328 $10,799.07
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 9:40am ET $37.98 328 $12,457.44 $12,487.09 +$1,658.37
(+15.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
9d held
20 🟢 BUY Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET $36.83 339 $12,485.37
🔴 SELL Apr 2, 2026 10:40am ET $34.96 339 $11,851.44 $11,853.16 $-633.93
(-5.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $11,853.16
Net Profit/Loss: +$1,853.16
Total Return: +18.53%
Back to Surge