Compendium › Surge › WMT
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
WMT
Alpaca Tradeable

Surge's Analysis

Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 18 trades in period

+11.90%
Year to Date Return
$15,817.66
Current Value
61%
Win Rate
$14,135.85
Period Start
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PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Signals generated 2026-05-06 12:24:20

Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
74 overbought
20d Trend
+6.1%
5d Trend
+7.2%
EMA20 Dist
+5.3%
ATR%
1.8%
Range Pos
94%
Bounce Ratio
3.3×
Green/Red 10d
6/4
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

48
Lifetime
Confidence: 75%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
32.0/35
Total Return
14.7/25
Win Rate
5.4/15
Profit Factor
5.3/15
Consistency
6.9/10
Raw Quality 64.3/100
× Confidence 0.75 = 48.1

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (75%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
8,205
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
92 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)

Market Closed (4 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$14,135.85
Current Value
$15,817.66
Period P&L
$1,681.81
Max Drawdown
-6.4%
Sharpe Ratio
0.42

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
18
Winners / Losers
11 / 7
Best Trade
+3.39%
Worst Trade
-1.33%
Avg Trade Return
+0.64%
Avg Hold Time
1.4d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$539,735.13
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,681.81
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,681.81
Gross Return
+11.90%
Net Return (after fees)
+11.90%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 WMT Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 92 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 18 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $14,135.85 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jan 2, 2026 12:00pm ET $112.36 125 $14,044.38 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 5, 2026 12:30pm ET $113.59 125 $14,198.75 $14,290.23 +$154.38
(+1.1%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 6, 2026 12:55pm ET $113.81 125 $14,226.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 7, 2026 10:00am ET $112.50 125 $14,062.94 $14,126.92 $-163.31
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 8, 2026 10:15am ET $112.27 125 $14,033.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 9, 2026 10:45am ET $114.80 125 $14,349.38 $14,442.55 +$315.63
(+2.2%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 9, 2026 2:55pm ET $115.07 125 $14,383.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 12, 2026 10:50am ET $118.01 125 $14,751.25 $14,810.05 +$367.50
(+2.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Jan 12, 2026 10:55am ET $118.02 125 $14,752.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 13, 2026 11:25am ET $119.85 125 $14,980.63 $15,038.18 +$228.13
(+1.6%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Jan 13, 2026 1:15pm ET $120.07 125 $15,008.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 14, 2026 1:45pm ET $120.29 125 $15,036.25 $15,065.68 +$27.50
(+0.2%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Jan 16, 2026 3:50pm ET $120.43 125 $15,053.38 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 20, 2026 10:05am ET $119.02 125 $14,877.50 $14,889.80 $-175.88
(-1.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Jan 21, 2026 2:25pm ET $119.28 124 $14,791.09 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 22, 2026 2:15pm ET $118.09 124 $14,642.54 $14,741.25 $-148.55
(-1.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Jan 28, 2026 10:25am ET $117.26 125 $14,657.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 28, 2026 2:20pm ET $116.06 125 $14,507.50 $14,591.25 $-150.00
(-1.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Jan 30, 2026 10:05am ET $117.63 124 $14,585.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 2, 2026 10:00am ET $120.69 124 $14,965.56 $14,971.01 +$379.76
(+2.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
11 🟢 BUY Feb 2, 2026 10:10am ET $121.25 123 $14,914.36 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 3, 2026 10:00am ET $125.37 123 $15,420.51 $15,477.16 +$506.15
(+3.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
12 🟢 BUY Feb 3, 2026 10:30am ET $126.62 122 $15,447.64 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 4, 2026 11:00am ET $128.25 122 $15,646.50 $15,676.02 +$198.86
(+1.3%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
13 🟢 BUY Feb 4, 2026 12:20pm ET $129.32 121 $15,647.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 4, 2026 2:55pm ET $127.91 121 $15,477.11 $15,505.41 $-170.61
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
14 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 10:15am ET $129.49 119 $15,409.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 11:30am ET $127.77 119 $15,204.63 $15,300.14 $-205.27
(-1.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
15 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 11:05am ET $129.45 118 $15,275.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 11:35am ET $129.68 118 $15,302.24 $15,327.28 +$27.14
(+0.2%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
16 🟢 BUY Feb 11, 2026 11:50am ET $128.75 119 $15,321.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 12, 2026 10:10am ET $131.97 119 $15,704.42 $15,710.45 +$383.17
(+2.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
17 🟢 BUY Feb 12, 2026 10:30am ET $132.74 118 $15,663.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 13, 2026 11:00am ET $133.85 118 $15,794.73 $15,841.85 +$131.40
(+0.8%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
18 🟢 BUY Feb 13, 2026 11:05am ET $133.99 118 $15,810.23 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 13, 2026 3:55pm ET $133.78 118 $15,786.04 $15,817.66 $-24.19
(-0.1%) 		📅 Sim Ended
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $15,817.66
Net Profit/Loss: +$5,817.66
Total Return: +58.18%
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