Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-05-06 12:24:21

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
44.4 neutral
20d Trend
-1.7%
5d Trend
+0.1%
EMA20 Dist
-0.7%
ATR%
1.2%
Range Pos
44%
Bounce Ratio
1.3×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

5
Lifetime
Confidence: 75%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
1.5/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.6/10
Raw Quality 6.1/100
× Confidence 0.75 = 4.6

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (75%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
8,434
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
92 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)

Market Closed (4 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$9,643.86
Current Value
$9,099.94
Period P&L
$-543.92
Max Drawdown
-14.4%
Sharpe Ratio
-2.49

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
7
Winners / Losers
0 / 7
Best Trade
-0.19%
Worst Trade
-1.14%
Avg Trade Return
-0.83%
Avg Hold Time
17.9h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$131,130.10
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-543.92
Net P&L (after fees)
$-543.92
Gross Return
-5.64%
Net Return (after fees)
-5.64%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 XLF Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 92 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 7 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $9,643.86 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jan 5, 2026 10:25am ET $56.30 171 $9,627.30
🔴 SELL Jan 6, 2026 10:55am ET $56.20 171 $9,609.35 $9,625.91 $-17.95
(-0.2%)
END_OF_DAY
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 6, 2026 12:15pm ET $56.35 170 $9,578.65
🔴 SELL Jan 7, 2026 10:00am ET $55.73 170 $9,474.10 $9,521.36 $-104.55
(-1.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 8, 2026 12:30pm ET $56.24 169 $9,504.56
🔴 SELL Jan 9, 2026 1:00pm ET $55.84 169 $9,436.12 $9,452.91 $-68.45
(-0.7%)
END_OF_DAY
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 20, 2026 10:30am ET $54.10 174 $9,412.53
🔴 SELL Jan 20, 2026 1:20pm ET $53.52 174 $9,312.62 $9,353.00 $-99.91
(-1.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Feb 2, 2026 12:10pm ET $54.00 173 $9,342.00
🔴 SELL Feb 3, 2026 12:35pm ET $53.43 173 $9,243.39 $9,254.39 $-98.61
(-1.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Feb 4, 2026 10:40am ET $53.99 171 $9,232.29
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 10:15am ET $53.38 171 $9,127.13 $9,149.22 $-105.17
(-1.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Feb 13, 2026 12:10pm ET $51.93 176 $9,139.68
🔴 SELL Feb 13, 2026 3:55pm ET $51.65 176 $9,090.40 $9,099.94 $-49.28
(-0.5%)
📅 Sim Ended
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $9,099.94
Net Profit/Loss: $-900.06
Total Return: -9.00%
Back to Surge