NVDA Lucky Strike's Analysis
Last Year: 2025-05-07 to present • 29 trades in period
+28.65%
Last Year Return
$24,956.60
Current Value
45%
Win Rate
$19,398.64
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
47
Neutral
VIX
17.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
33.4 neutral
20d Trend
-9.7%
5d Trend
-7.1%
EMA20 Dist
-5.9%
ATR%
3.2%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.7×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
Strategy Score Scored May 7, 2026
47
Lifetime
Confidence: 74%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
35.0/35
Total Return
18.1/25
Win Rate
0.7/15
Profit Factor
3.1/15
Consistency
5.8/10
Raw Quality
62.7/100
× Confidence 0.74
= 46.6
30-Day Momentum
Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (74%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last Year)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
40,830
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-05-07 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
265 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)
Market Closed (10 days)
2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last Year)
Period Start Capital
$19,398.64
Current Value
$24,956.60
Period P&L
$5,557.99
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.18
Trade Statistics (Last Year)
Trades in Period
29
Winners / Losers
13 /
16
Best Trade
+20.15%
Worst Trade
-4.47%
Avg Trade Return
+1.02%
Avg Hold Time
6.7d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,520,180.16
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$5,557.99
Net P&L (after fees)
$5,557.99
Gross Return
+28.65%
Net Return (after fees)
+28.65%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 NVDA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 265 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last Year - 29 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Lucky Strike had $19,398.64 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | May 7, 2025 2:05pm ET | $112.65 | 172 | $19,375.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 14, 2025 12:30pm ET | $135.34 | 172 | $23,279.05 | $23,302.06 |
+$3,903.44 (+20.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6.9d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | May 16, 2025 10:40am ET | $133.52 | 174 | $23,233.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 21, 2025 3:00pm ET | $132.42 | 174 | $23,041.08 | $23,110.05 |
$-192.01 (-0.8%) |
TRAIL_STOP
5.2d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | May 22, 2025 3:55pm ET | $132.79 | 174 | $23,105.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 29, 2025 2:20pm ET | $137.98 | 174 | $24,008.52 | $24,013.12 |
+$903.08 (+3.9%) |
TRAIL_STOP
6.9d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 4, 2025 10:00am ET | $140.05 | 171 | $23,949.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 1, 2025 10:50am ET | $153.00 | 171 | $26,162.15 | $26,226.21 |
+$2,213.08 (+9.2%) |
TRAIL_STOP
27d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2025 9:30am ET | $158.42 | 165 | $26,138.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 22, 2025 9:45am ET | $166.60 | 165 | $27,489.02 | $27,576.73 |
+$1,350.53 (+5.2%) |
TRAIL_STOP
15d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 30, 2025 2:55pm ET | $178.14 | 154 | $27,433.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 1, 2025 9:30am ET | $173.04 | 154 | $26,648.16 | $26,791.35 |
$-785.38 (-2.9%) |
TRAIL_STOP
1.8d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 5, 2025 10:45am ET | $176.02 | 152 | $26,754.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 19, 2025 12:10pm ET | $176.97 | 152 | $26,898.68 | $26,935.75 |
+$144.40 (+0.5%) |
TRAIL_STOP
14.1d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 22, 2025 9:30am ET | $172.48 | 156 | $26,906.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 29, 2025 9:35am ET | $174.89 | 156 | $27,282.06 | $27,310.93 |
+$375.18 (+1.4%) |
TRAIL_STOP
7d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 2, 2025 9:55am ET | $171.65 | 159 | $27,292.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 5, 2025 10:10am ET | $165.89 | 159 | $26,375.72 | $26,394.29 |
$-916.64 (-3.4%) |
TRAIL_STOP
3d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 8, 2025 3:50pm ET | $168.97 | 156 | $26,359.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 17, 2025 9:30am ET | $171.63 | 156 | $26,774.28 | $26,809.25 |
+$414.96 (+1.6%) |
TRAIL_STOP
8.7d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 18, 2025 3:55pm ET | $176.28 | 152 | $26,794.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 23, 2025 1:35pm ET | $177.70 | 152 | $27,009.64 | $27,024.33 |
+$215.08 (+0.8%) |
TRAIL_STOP
4.9d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 25, 2025 9:30am ET | $174.45 | 154 | $26,865.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 10, 2025 11:20am ET | $188.50 | 154 | $29,029.00 | $29,188.03 |
+$2,163.70 (+8.1%) |
TRAIL_STOP
15.1d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 14, 2025 9:30am ET | $181.34 | 160 | $29,013.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 15, 2025 1:10pm ET | $177.63 | 160 | $28,420.80 | $28,595.23 |
$-592.80 (-2.0%) |
TRAIL_STOP
1.2d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 21, 2025 9:40am ET | $181.29 | 157 | $28,462.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 22, 2025 1:50pm ET | $176.92 | 157 | $27,776.44 | $27,909.14 |
$-686.09 (-2.4%) |
TRAIL_STOP
1.2d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 23, 2025 3:55pm ET | $182.20 | 153 | $27,876.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 30, 2025 9:30am ET | $202.91 | 153 | $31,045.86 | $31,078.40 |
+$3,169.26 (+11.4%) |
TRAIL_STOP
6.7d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 3, 2025 2:00pm ET | $208.66 | 148 | $30,881.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 4, 2025 2:00pm ET | $200.51 | 148 | $29,675.48 | $29,872.20 |
$-1,206.20 (-3.9%) |
TRAIL_STOP
1d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 5, 2025 3:50pm ET | $196.08 | 152 | $29,804.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 6, 2025 3:50pm ET | $187.31 | 152 | $28,471.12 | $28,539.16 |
$-1,333.04 (-4.5%) |
TRAIL_STOP
1d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 11, 2025 9:30am ET | $194.71 | 146 | $28,427.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 13, 2025 9:40am ET | $187.08 | 146 | $27,313.68 | $27,425.18 |
$-1,113.98 (-3.9%) |
TRAIL_STOP
2d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 17, 2025 9:30am ET | $186.83 | 146 | $27,277.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 18, 2025 9:45am ET | $181.74 | 146 | $26,534.04 | $26,682.04 |
$-743.14 (-2.7%) |
TRAIL_STOP
1d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 19, 2025 12:00pm ET | $184.15 | 144 | $26,516.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 20, 2025 12:00pm ET | $186.12 | 144 | $26,800.85 | $26,966.01 |
+$283.97 (+1.1%) |
TRAIL_STOP
1d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 21, 2025 3:50pm ET | $179.14 | 150 | $26,871.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 25, 2025 9:30am ET | $173.99 | 150 | $26,098.50 | $26,193.51 |
$-772.50 (-2.9%) |
TRAIL_STOP
3.7d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 28, 2025 9:30am ET | $179.24 | 146 | $26,169.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 11, 2025 9:30am ET | $178.48 | 146 | $26,058.08 | $26,082.55 |
$-110.96 (-0.4%) |
TRAIL_STOP
13d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 12, 2025 10:55am ET | $177.24 | 147 | $26,054.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 17, 2025 10:55am ET | $171.52 | 147 | $25,214.09 | $25,242.35 |
$-840.19 (-3.2%) |
TRAIL_STOP
5d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 24, 2025 10:20am ET | $186.86 | 135 | $25,225.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 8, 2026 9:50am ET | $186.12 | 135 | $25,126.20 | $25,143.12 |
$-99.24 (-0.4%) |
TRAIL_STOP
15d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $184.91 | 135 | $24,962.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2026 10:00am ET | $180.97 | 135 | $24,431.57 | $24,611.84 |
$-531.28 (-2.1%) |
TRAIL_STOP
2d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 16, 2026 3:55pm ET | $186.22 | 132 | $24,581.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 10:15am ET | $179.70 | 132 | $23,720.40 | $23,751.20 |
$-860.64 (-3.5%) |
TRAIL_STOP
3.8d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 3:55pm ET | $183.34 | 129 | $23,650.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $186.93 | 129 | $24,114.61 | $24,214.95 |
+$463.75 (+2.0%) |
TRAIL_STOP
11.7d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $184.17 | 131 | $24,126.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 10:00am ET | $176.91 | 131 | $23,175.22 | $23,263.92 |
$-951.04 (-3.9%) |
TRAIL_STOP
1d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 10:00am ET | $173.15 | 134 | $23,202.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $185.78 | 134 | $24,894.79 | $24,956.60 |
+$1,692.69 (+7.3%) |
TRAIL_STOP
8d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$24,956.60
Net Profit/Loss:
+$14,956.60
Total Return:
+149.57%