Compendium › Lucky Strike › SPY
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
SPY
Alpaca Tradeable

Lucky Strike's Analysis

Last 6 Months: 2025-11-07 to present • 4 trades in period

-3.71%
Last 6 Months Return
$12,702.87
Current Value
50%
Win Rate
$13,192.78
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-05-07 07:42:22

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
47
Neutral
VIX
17.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
37.4 neutral
20d Trend
-2.6%
5d Trend
-2.0%
EMA20 Dist
-1.7%
ATR%
1.1%
Range Pos
54%
Bounce Ratio
0.7×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored May 7, 2026

27
Lifetime
Confidence: 58%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
18.9/35
Total Return
12.0/25
Win Rate
4.6/15
Profit Factor
5.4/15
Consistency
5.3/10
Raw Quality 46.3/100
× Confidence 0.58 = 26.9

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (58%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
16,457
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-11-07 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
137 days
Data Gaps
None (6 market holidays)

Market Closed (6 days)

2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$13,192.78
Current Value
$12,702.87
Period P&L
$-489.89
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.17

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
4
Winners / Losers
2 / 2
Best Trade
+2.15%
Worst Trade
-3.50%
Avg Trade Return
-0.38%
Avg Hold Time
35d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$99,649.00
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-489.89
Net P&L (after fees)
$-489.89
Gross Return
-3.71%
Net Return (after fees)
-3.71%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 SPY Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 137 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 4 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Lucky Strike had $13,192.78 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Sep 25, 2025 9:30am ET $657.14 19 $12,485.66 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 7, 2025 9:35am ET $664.50 19 $12,625.50 $13,050.83 +$139.84
(+1.1%) 		TRAIL_STOP
43d held
2 🟢 BUY Nov 13, 2025 9:30am ET $680.06 19 $12,921.14 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 20, 2025 12:40pm ET $656.28 19 $12,469.32 $12,599.01 $-451.82
(-3.5%) 		TRAIL_STOP
7.1d held
3 🟢 BUY Dec 1, 2025 9:30am ET $679.67 18 $12,234.06 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 15, 2026 9:30am ET $694.29 18 $12,497.22 $12,862.17 +$263.16
(+2.2%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
45d held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET $682.65 18 $12,287.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 6, 2026 9:30am ET $673.80 18 $12,128.40 $12,702.87 $-159.30
(-1.3%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
45d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $12,702.87
Net Profit/Loss: +$2,702.87
Total Return: +27.03%
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