Compendium › Lucky Strike › SPY
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
SPY
Alpaca Tradeable

Lucky Strike's Analysis

to 2026-05-06 19:55:00+00 • 21 trades executed

+24.00%
2 Years Return
$12,702.87
Current Value
55%
Win Rate
$10,243.96
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-05-07 07:42:22

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
47
Neutral
VIX
17.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
37.4 neutral
20d Trend
-2.6%
5d Trend
-2.0%
EMA20 Dist
-1.7%
ATR%
1.1%
Range Pos
54%
Bounce Ratio
0.7×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored May 7, 2026

27
Lifetime
Confidence: 58%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
18.9/35
Total Return
12.0/25
Win Rate
4.6/15
Profit Factor
5.4/15
Consistency
5.3/10
Raw Quality 46.3/100
× Confidence 0.58 = 26.9

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (58%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
87,221
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-05-07 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
536 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)

Market Closed (21 days)

2024-05-27 — Memorial Day, 2024-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2024-07-04 — Independence Day, 2024-09-02 — Labor Day, 2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary

Starting Capital
$10,243.96
Current Value
$12,702.87
Total P&L
$2,458.93
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.31

Trade Statistics

Total Trades
20
Winners / Losers
11 / 9
Best Trade
+14.59%
Worst Trade
-4.33%
Avg Trade Return
+1.37%
Avg Hold Time
27.2d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$429,681.37
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$2,458.93
Net P&L (after fees)
$2,458.93
Gross Return
+24.00%
Net Return (after fees)
+24.00%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 SPY Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 536 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Complete Trade History

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Lucky Strike had $10,243.96 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Apr 25, 2024 9:30am ET $498.47 19 $9,470.93 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 10, 2024 9:30am ET $533.03 19 $10,127.57 $10,561.45 +$656.64
(+6.9%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
46d held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 21, 2024 9:30am ET $544.67 19 $10,348.73 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 24, 2024 11:00am ET $545.14 19 $10,357.57 $10,570.28 +$8.84
(+0.1%) 		TRAIL_STOP
33.1d held
3 🟢 BUY Aug 2, 2024 9:30am ET $534.05 19 $10,146.95 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 5, 2024 9:30am ET $512.23 19 $9,732.37 $10,155.70 $-414.58
(-4.1%) 		TRAIL_STOP
3d held
4 🟢 BUY Aug 12, 2024 11:20am ET $532.08 19 $10,109.52 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 6, 2024 10:40am ET $542.62 19 $10,309.78 $10,355.96 +$200.26
(+2.0%) 		TRAIL_STOP
25d held
5 🟢 BUY Sep 20, 2024 9:30am ET $567.99 18 $10,223.82 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 4, 2024 9:30am ET $570.31 18 $10,265.58 $10,397.72 +$41.76
(+0.4%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
45d held
6 🟢 BUY Nov 15, 2024 9:30am ET $589.22 17 $10,016.74 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 18, 2024 3:40pm ET $586.85 17 $9,976.45 $10,357.43 $-40.29
(-0.4%) 		TRAIL_STOP
33.3d held
7 🟢 BUY Dec 20, 2024 9:30am ET $582.32 17 $9,899.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 2, 2025 1:30pm ET $580.92 17 $9,875.66 $10,333.66 $-23.78
(-0.2%) 		TRAIL_STOP
13.2d held
8 🟢 BUY Jan 10, 2025 9:30am ET $585.18 17 $9,948.06 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 24, 2025 9:30am ET $602.15 17 $10,236.47 $10,622.06 +$288.41
(+2.9%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
45d held
9 🟢 BUY Mar 4, 2025 9:30am ET $578.56 18 $10,414.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 10, 2025 10:30am ET $564.67 18 $10,163.97 $10,371.95 $-250.11
(-2.4%) 		TRAIL_STOP
6d held
10 🟢 BUY Mar 18, 2025 9:30am ET $564.05 18 $10,152.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 28, 2025 1:05pm ET $555.74 18 $10,003.32 $10,222.37 $-149.58
(-1.5%) 		TRAIL_STOP
10.1d held
11 🟢 BUY Apr 3, 2025 9:30am ET $547.51 18 $9,855.18 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 4, 2025 9:30am ET $523.83 18 $9,428.94 $9,796.13 $-426.24
(-4.3%) 		TRAIL_STOP
1d held
12 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2025 9:30am ET $487.60 20 $9,752.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2025 1:05pm ET $504.93 20 $10,098.56 $10,142.69 +$346.56
(+3.6%) 		TRAIL_STOP
1.1d held
13 🟢 BUY Apr 10, 2025 10:10am ET $527.64 19 $10,025.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 16, 2025 1:55pm ET $524.10 19 $9,957.90 $10,075.43 $-67.26
(-0.7%) 		TRAIL_STOP
6.2d held
14 🟢 BUY Apr 21, 2025 9:30am ET $520.60 19 $9,891.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2025 9:30am ET $596.57 19 $11,334.83 $11,518.86 +$1,443.43
(+14.6%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
45d held
15 🟢 BUY Jun 13, 2025 9:30am ET $599.80 19 $11,396.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 28, 2025 9:30am ET $637.57 19 $12,113.74 $12,236.40 +$717.54
(+6.3%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
45d held
16 🟢 BUY Aug 1, 2025 9:30am ET $624.32 19 $11,861.99 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 15, 2025 9:30am ET $659.82 19 $12,536.58 $12,910.99 +$674.60
(+5.7%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
45d held
17 🟢 BUY Sep 25, 2025 9:30am ET $657.14 19 $12,485.66 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 7, 2025 9:35am ET $664.50 19 $12,625.50 $13,050.83 +$139.84
(+1.1%) 		TRAIL_STOP
43d held
18 🟢 BUY Nov 13, 2025 9:30am ET $680.06 19 $12,921.14 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 20, 2025 12:40pm ET $656.28 19 $12,469.32 $12,599.01 $-451.82
(-3.5%) 		TRAIL_STOP
7.1d held
19 🟢 BUY Dec 1, 2025 9:30am ET $679.67 18 $12,234.06 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 15, 2026 9:30am ET $694.29 18 $12,497.22 $12,862.17 +$263.16
(+2.2%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
45d held
20 🟢 BUY Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET $682.65 18 $12,287.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 6, 2026 9:30am ET $673.80 18 $12,128.40 $12,702.87 $-159.30
(-1.3%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
45d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $12,702.87
Net Profit/Loss: +$2,702.87
Total Return: +27.03%
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