XLE Lucky Strike's Analysis
to 2026-05-06 19:55:00+00 • 35 trades executed
-5.15%
2 Years Return
$10,847.65
Current Value
33%
Win Rate
$11,436.64
Period Start
PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.
Fear & Greed
47
Neutral
VIX
17.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
70 neutral
20d Trend
+11.0%
5d Trend
+2.0%
EMA20 Dist
+4.4%
ATR%
2.1%
Range Pos
76%
Bounce Ratio
3.3×
Green/Red 10d
8/2
Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026
12
Lifetime
Confidence: 64%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
5.9/35
Total Return
8.1/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.9/15
Consistency
3.8/10
Raw Quality
18.7/100
× Confidence 0.64
= 12.0
30-Day Momentum
Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (64%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
59,335
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-05-07 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
532 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)
Market Closed (21 days)
2024-05-27 — Memorial Day, 2024-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2024-07-04 — Independence Day, 2024-09-02 — Labor Day, 2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary
Starting Capital
$11,436.64
Current Value
$10,847.65
Total P&L
$-588.98
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.00
Trade Statistics
Total Trades
33
Winners / Losers
11 /
22
Best Trade
+22.10%
Worst Trade
-8.34%
Avg Trade Return
+0.02%
Avg Hold Time
15.1d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$605,070.49
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-588.98
Net P&L (after fees)
$-588.98
Gross Return
-5.15%
Net Return (after fees)
-5.15%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 XLE Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 532 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Complete Trade History
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Lucky Strike had $11,436.64 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | May 3, 2024 9:30am ET | $45.81 | 244 | $11,177.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 22, 2024 2:50pm ET | $45.87 | 244 | $11,191.06 | $11,204.84 |
+$13.42 (+0.1%) |
TRAIL_STOP
19.2d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | May 29, 2024 9:30am ET | $45.73 | 245 | $11,203.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 4, 2024 9:30am ET | $44.58 | 245 | $10,923.28 | $10,924.27 |
$-280.57 (-2.5%) |
TRAIL_STOP
6d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 6, 2024 9:30am ET | $44.84 | 243 | $10,896.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 14, 2024 10:00am ET | $43.99 | 243 | $10,688.96 | $10,717.11 |
$-207.16 (-1.9%) |
TRAIL_STOP
8d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 25, 2024 9:30am ET | $45.54 | 235 | $10,701.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 9, 2024 9:30am ET | $44.25 | 235 | $10,398.75 | $10,413.96 |
$-303.15 (-2.8%) |
TRAIL_STOP
14d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 16, 2024 9:30am ET | $45.61 | 228 | $10,397.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 23, 2024 10:20am ET | $45.57 | 228 | $10,389.96 | $10,405.98 |
$-7.98 (-0.1%) |
TRAIL_STOP
7d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 1, 2024 9:45am ET | $46.32 | 224 | $10,374.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 2, 2024 10:15am ET | $44.62 | 224 | $9,994.88 | $10,026.30 |
$-379.68 (-3.7%) |
TRAIL_STOP
1d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 13, 2024 9:30am ET | $44.53 | 225 | $10,019.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 3, 2024 10:00am ET | $44.25 | 225 | $9,955.13 | $9,962.17 |
$-64.13 (-0.6%) |
TRAIL_STOP
21d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 10, 2024 9:30am ET | $43.15 | 230 | $9,924.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 11, 2024 10:40am ET | $41.62 | 230 | $9,572.60 | $9,610.27 |
$-351.90 (-3.5%) |
TRAIL_STOP
1d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 20, 2024 9:30am ET | $43.95 | 218 | $9,581.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 26, 2024 9:30am ET | $43.00 | 218 | $9,372.91 | $9,402.08 |
$-208.19 (-2.2%) |
TRAIL_STOP
6d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 8, 2024 9:30am ET | $45.73 | 205 | $9,374.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 15, 2024 3:55pm ET | $44.91 | 205 | $9,206.55 | $9,233.98 |
$-168.10 (-1.8%) |
TRAIL_STOP
7.3d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 18, 2024 9:30am ET | $45.02 | 205 | $9,228.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 29, 2024 12:40pm ET | $43.93 | 205 | $9,005.65 | $9,011.56 |
$-222.43 (-2.4%) |
TRAIL_STOP
11.1d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 7, 2024 9:30am ET | $46.42 | 194 | $9,005.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 2, 2024 9:50am ET | $47.17 | 194 | $9,151.47 | $9,157.54 |
+$145.99 (+1.6%) |
TRAIL_STOP
25d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 4, 2024 9:30am ET | $47.00 | 194 | $9,118.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 10, 2024 9:40am ET | $45.30 | 194 | $8,788.20 | $8,827.74 |
$-329.80 (-3.6%) |
TRAIL_STOP
6d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 12, 2024 9:30am ET | $44.97 | 196 | $8,814.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 17, 2024 9:30am ET | $43.16 | 196 | $8,458.38 | $8,472.00 |
$-355.74 (-4.0%) |
TRAIL_STOP
5d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 18, 2024 3:40pm ET | $42.18 | 200 | $8,435.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 27, 2025 9:30am ET | $45.21 | 200 | $9,042.56 | $9,079.06 |
+$607.06 (+7.2%) |
TRAIL_STOP
39.7d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 31, 2025 9:30am ET | $44.48 | 204 | $9,073.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 13, 2025 9:30am ET | $44.19 | 204 | $9,013.74 | $9,018.88 |
$-60.18 (-0.7%) |
TRAIL_STOP
13d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 21, 2025 9:30am ET | $46.14 | 195 | $8,997.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2025 11:30am ET | $44.56 | 195 | $8,689.20 | $8,710.78 |
$-308.10 (-3.4%) |
TRAIL_STOP
4.1d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 28, 2025 9:30am ET | $44.55 | 195 | $8,687.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2025 2:45pm ET | $44.11 | 195 | $8,601.45 | $8,624.98 |
$-85.80 (-1.0%) |
TRAIL_STOP
3.2d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2025 3:50pm ET | $43.56 | 198 | $8,624.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 3, 2025 9:30am ET | $44.96 | 198 | $8,902.08 | $8,902.18 |
+$277.20 (+3.2%) |
TRAIL_STOP
29.7d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 4, 2025 9:30am ET | $41.61 | 213 | $8,861.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2025 9:30am ET | $38.14 | 213 | $8,122.76 | $8,163.07 |
$-739.11 (-8.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2025 11:05am ET | $39.48 | 206 | $8,131.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2025 11:05am ET | $37.55 | 206 | $7,735.30 | $7,766.52 |
$-396.55 (-4.9%) |
TRAIL_STOP
1d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2025 11:15am ET | $38.71 | 200 | $7,741.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2025 9:30am ET | $39.76 | 200 | $7,952.00 | $7,977.52 |
+$211.00 (+2.7%) |
TRAIL_STOP
10.9d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 22, 2025 1:10pm ET | $40.64 | 196 | $7,965.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2025 9:45am ET | $40.11 | 196 | $7,862.05 | $7,874.13 |
$-103.39 (-1.3%) |
TRAIL_STOP
7.9d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | May 2, 2025 10:00am ET | $40.18 | 195 | $7,834.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 21, 2025 9:30am ET | $41.52 | 195 | $8,095.91 | $8,135.92 |
+$261.79 (+3.3%) |
TRAIL_STOP
19d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | May 22, 2025 9:30am ET | $40.45 | 201 | $8,130.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 23, 2025 2:00pm ET | $42.97 | 201 | $8,636.47 | $8,641.44 |
+$505.52 (+6.2%) |
TRAIL_STOP
32.2d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 25, 2025 9:30am ET | $42.24 | 204 | $8,615.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 16, 2025 10:30am ET | $43.02 | 204 | $8,775.06 | $8,800.56 |
+$159.12 (+1.8%) |
TRAIL_STOP
21d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 18, 2025 11:10am ET | $43.15 | 203 | $8,759.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 1, 2025 10:00am ET | $42.80 | 203 | $8,687.39 | $8,728.49 |
$-72.06 (-0.8%) |
TRAIL_STOP
14d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 18, 2025 9:30am ET | $42.33 | 206 | $8,718.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 5, 2025 10:40am ET | $43.70 | 206 | $9,002.20 | $9,011.74 |
+$283.25 (+3.2%) |
TRAIL_STOP
18d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 9, 2025 11:30am ET | $44.06 | 204 | $8,987.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 22, 2025 9:30am ET | $43.68 | 204 | $8,909.94 | $8,934.47 |
$-77.28 (-0.9%) |
TRAIL_STOP
12.9d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 29, 2025 9:30am ET | $45.57 | 196 | $8,932.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 9, 2025 12:50pm ET | $43.97 | 196 | $8,618.61 | $8,620.87 |
$-313.60 (-3.5%) |
TRAIL_STOP
10.1d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 14, 2025 9:30am ET | $42.73 | 201 | $8,588.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 19, 2025 9:45am ET | $44.45 | 201 | $8,933.45 | $8,965.58 |
+$344.72 (+4.0%) |
TRAIL_STOP
36.1d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 20, 2025 11:25am ET | $45.38 | 197 | $8,939.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 15, 2025 11:10am ET | $44.99 | 197 | $8,863.03 | $8,888.75 |
$-76.83 (-0.9%) |
TRAIL_STOP
25d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 9:35am ET | $46.65 | 190 | $8,863.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $56.96 | 190 | $10,822.40 | $10,847.65 |
+$1,958.90 (+22.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
59d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$10,847.65
Net Profit/Loss:
+$847.65
Total Return:
+8.48%