Compendium › Lucky Strike › PM
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
PM
Alpaca Tradeable

Lucky Strike's Analysis

Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 4 trades in period

-3.83%
Year to Date Return
$13,333.31
Current Value
75%
Win Rate
$13,864.47
Period Start
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PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Signals generated 2026-05-07 06:37:17

Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.

Fear & Greed
47
Neutral
VIX
17.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
71.8 overbought
20d Trend
+12.7%
5d Trend
+2.2%
EMA20 Dist
+5.0%
ATR%
2.4%
Range Pos
97%
Bounce Ratio
1.2×
Green/Red 10d
8/2

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

30
Lifetime
Confidence: 64%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
23.3/35
Total Return
12.8/25
Win Rate
1.7/15
Profit Factor
2.2/15
Consistency
6.1/10
Raw Quality 46.0/100
× Confidence 0.64 = 29.7

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (64%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
7,024
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-02 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
87 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)

Market Closed (4 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$13,864.47
Current Value
$13,333.31
Period P&L
$-531.15
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.21

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
4
Winners / Losers
3 / 1
Best Trade
+7.02%
Worst Trade
-9.58%
Avg Trade Return
+1.36%
Avg Hold Time
18.7d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$110,825.14
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-531.15
Net P&L (after fees)
$-531.15
Gross Return
-3.83%
Net Return (after fees)
-3.83%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 PM Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 87 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 4 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Lucky Strike had $13,864.47 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Dec 8, 2025 9:35am ET $146.95 86 $12,637.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 5, 2026 9:30am ET $157.26 86 $13,524.36 $13,629.68 +$886.66
(+7.0%) 		TRAIL_STOP
28d held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 6, 2026 9:45am ET $158.21 86 $13,606.06 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 20, 2026 10:10am ET $167.90 86 $14,439.40 $14,463.02 +$833.34
(+6.1%) 		TRAIL_STOP
14d held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 30, 2026 9:40am ET $176.55 81 $14,300.15 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 11:30am ET $179.84 81 $14,566.64 $14,729.51 +$266.49
(+1.9%) 		TRAIL_STOP
10.1d held
4 🟢 BUY Feb 11, 2026 1:55pm ET $186.84 78 $14,573.52 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 6, 2026 9:30am ET $168.94 78 $13,177.32 $13,333.31 $-1,396.20
(-9.6%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
22.8d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $13,333.31
Net Profit/Loss: +$3,333.31
Total Return: +33.33%
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