Compendium › Lucky Strike › XLF
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
XLF
Alpaca Tradeable

Lucky Strike's Analysis

Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 3 trades in period

-4.44%
Year to Date Return
$11,054.95
Current Value
33%
Win Rate
$11,568.35
Period Start
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PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-05-07 07:41:33

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
47
Neutral
VIX
17.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
44.4 neutral
20d Trend
-1.7%
5d Trend
+0.1%
EMA20 Dist
-0.7%
ATR%
1.2%
Range Pos
44%
Bounce Ratio
1.3×
Green/Red 10d
5/5

Strategy Score Scored May 7, 2026

14
Lifetime
Confidence: 52%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
7.4/35
Total Return
8.8/25
Win Rate
2.9/15
Profit Factor
1.4/15
Consistency
5.3/10
Raw Quality 25.8/100
× Confidence 0.52 = 13.5

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (52%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
8,477
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
92 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)

Market Closed (4 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$11,568.35
Current Value
$11,054.95
Period P&L
$-513.40
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.14

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
3
Winners / Losers
1 / 2
Best Trade
+7.67%
Worst Trade
-3.23%
Avg Trade Return
+0.68%
Avg Hold Time
25d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$67,775.01
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-513.40
Net P&L (after fees)
$-513.40
Gross Return
-4.44%
Net Return (after fees)
-4.44%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 XLF Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 92 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 3 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Lucky Strike had $11,568.35 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Nov 20, 2025 11:55am ET $51.44 211 $10,852.79 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 5, 2026 9:30am ET $55.38 211 $11,685.18 $11,701.28 +$832.40
(+7.7%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
45.9d held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 7, 2026 9:30am ET $56.06 208 $11,659.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 13, 2026 12:05pm ET $54.25 208 $11,282.96 $11,324.80 $-376.48
(-3.2%) 		TRAIL_STOP
6.1d held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET $53.73 210 $11,282.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 12, 2026 10:45am ET $52.44 210 $11,012.40 $11,054.95 $-269.85
(-2.4%) 		TRAIL_STOP
23.1d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $11,054.95
Net Profit/Loss: +$1,054.95
Total Return: +10.55%
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