NIO Trent Follower's Analysis
Last Year: 2025-05-07 to present • 55 trades in period
-8.71%
Last Year Return
$5,722.87
Current Value
45%
Win Rate
$6,268.61
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
47
Neutral
VIX
17.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
47.7 neutral
20d Trend
-0.8%
5d Trend
-0.8%
EMA20 Dist
-0.1%
ATR%
4.5%
Range Pos
9%
Bounce Ratio
2.0×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
Strategy Score Scored May 7, 2026
3
Lifetime
Confidence: 97%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.2/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.2/10
Raw Quality
3.4/100
× Confidence 0.97
= 3.4
30-Day Momentum
19
+1.8%
30d Return
75%
Win Rate
4
Trades
1.2×
Profit Factor
Quality: 28.5
Conf: 0.66×
Accelerating (+16 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (97%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last Year)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
39,595
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-05-07 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
265 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)
Market Closed (10 days)
2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last Year)
Period Start Capital
$6,268.61
Current Value
$5,722.87
Period P&L
$-545.81
Max Drawdown
-49.6%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.05
Trade Statistics (Last Year)
Trades in Period
55
Winners / Losers
25 /
30
Best Trade
+8.66%
Worst Trade
-4.38%
Avg Trade Return
-0.13%
Avg Hold Time
7.8h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$631,824.58
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-545.81
Net P&L (after fees)
$-545.81
Gross Return
-8.71%
Net Return (after fees)
-8.71%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 NIO Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 265 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last Year - 55 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Trent Follower had $6,268.61 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | May 12, 2025 9:30am ET | $4.25 | 1,475 | $6,266.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 12, 2025 3:35pm ET | $4.20 | 1,475 | $6,195.00 | $6,197.43 |
$-71.24 (-1.1%) |
TREND_BREAK
6.1h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 4, 2025 10:30am ET | $3.71 | 1,668 | $6,195.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 4, 2025 2:15pm ET | $3.78 | 1,668 | $6,296.70 | $6,298.18 |
+$100.75 (+1.6%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.8h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 11, 2025 9:40am ET | $3.87 | 1,627 | $6,296.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 11, 2025 11:25am ET | $3.79 | 1,627 | $6,166.33 | $6,167.86 |
$-130.32 (-2.1%) |
TREND_BREAK
1.8h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 24, 2025 10:40am ET | $3.52 | 1,753 | $6,164.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 24, 2025 1:30pm ET | $3.50 | 1,753 | $6,135.68 | $6,138.58 |
$-29.28 (-0.5%) |
TREND_BREAK
2.8h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 27, 2025 1:25pm ET | $3.55 | 1,731 | $6,136.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 27, 2025 2:35pm ET | $3.44 | 1,731 | $5,954.64 | $5,956.83 |
$-181.76 (-3.0%) |
TREND_BREAK
1.2h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 1, 2025 9:50am ET | $3.56 | 1,673 | $5,955.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 1, 2025 11:05am ET | $3.47 | 1,673 | $5,805.48 | $5,806.59 |
$-150.24 (-2.5%) |
TREND_BREAK
1.3h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 10, 2025 10:50am ET | $3.62 | 1,604 | $5,806.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 10, 2025 1:25pm ET | $3.59 | 1,604 | $5,750.34 | $5,750.45 |
$-56.14 (-1.0%) |
TREND_BREAK
2.6h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 14, 2025 9:30am ET | $4.16 | 1,382 | $5,748.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 14, 2025 12:30pm ET | $4.07 | 1,382 | $5,617.83 | $5,619.99 |
$-130.46 (-2.3%) |
TREND_BREAK
3h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 17, 2025 9:40am ET | $4.23 | 1,328 | $5,617.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 17, 2025 1:55pm ET | $4.40 | 1,328 | $5,843.07 | $5,845.75 |
+$225.76 (+4.0%) |
TREND_BREAK
4.3h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 21, 2025 9:30am ET | $4.54 | 1,287 | $5,843.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 21, 2025 12:50pm ET | $4.57 | 1,287 | $5,875.16 | $5,877.80 |
+$32.05 (+0.6%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.3h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 22, 2025 12:50pm ET | $5.08 | 1,157 | $5,877.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 22, 2025 2:25pm ET | $4.99 | 1,157 | $5,767.65 | $5,767.88 |
$-109.92 (-1.9%) |
TREND_BREAK
1.6h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 25, 2025 10:30am ET | $4.99 | 1,155 | $5,766.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 25, 2025 1:10pm ET | $4.95 | 1,155 | $5,717.25 | $5,718.22 |
$-49.67 (-0.9%) |
TREND_BREAK
2.7h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 31, 2025 11:00am ET | $4.70 | 1,216 | $5,715.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 31, 2025 3:40pm ET | $4.89 | 1,216 | $5,940.16 | $5,943.18 |
+$224.96 (+3.9%) |
TREND_BREAK
4.7h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 6, 2025 9:30am ET | $4.66 | 1,276 | $5,939.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 6, 2025 11:10am ET | $4.52 | 1,276 | $5,773.26 | $5,776.66 |
$-166.52 (-2.8%) |
TREND_BREAK
1.7h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 8, 2025 11:15am ET | $4.85 | 1,192 | $5,775.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 8, 2025 2:20pm ET | $4.81 | 1,192 | $5,727.56 | $5,728.98 |
$-47.68 (-0.8%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.1h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 15, 2025 9:30am ET | $4.62 | 1,239 | $5,728.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 18, 2025 11:40am ET | $4.83 | 1,239 | $5,984.25 | $5,984.59 |
+$255.61 (+4.5%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.1d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 19, 2025 12:00pm ET | $5.15 | 1,161 | $5,984.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 19, 2025 1:10pm ET | $5.07 | 1,161 | $5,880.47 | $5,880.91 |
$-103.68 (-1.7%) |
TREND_BREAK
1.2h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 21, 2025 9:30am ET | $5.32 | 1,106 | $5,878.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 21, 2025 2:10pm ET | $5.55 | 1,106 | $6,132.77 | $6,135.29 |
+$254.38 (+4.3%) |
TREND_BREAK
4.7h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 26, 2025 9:30am ET | $6.66 | 921 | $6,129.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 26, 2025 3:30pm ET | $6.70 | 921 | $6,166.10 | $6,172.13 |
+$36.84 (+0.6%) |
TREND_BREAK
6h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 9, 2025 10:20am ET | $6.29 | 982 | $6,171.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 9, 2025 11:55am ET | $6.12 | 982 | $6,011.02 | $6,011.28 |
$-160.85 (-2.6%) |
TREND_BREAK
1.6h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 11, 2025 9:40am ET | $5.92 | 1,015 | $6,008.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 11, 2025 1:55pm ET | $6.06 | 1,015 | $6,150.90 | $6,153.48 |
+$142.20 (+2.4%) |
TREND_BREAK
4.3h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 15, 2025 9:30am ET | $6.72 | 916 | $6,150.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 15, 2025 1:35pm ET | $6.48 | 916 | $5,935.77 | $5,938.31 |
$-215.17 (-3.5%) |
TREND_BREAK
4.1h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 16, 2025 1:35pm ET | $6.94 | 855 | $5,933.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 17, 2025 1:10pm ET | $7.21 | 855 | $6,160.28 | $6,165.14 |
+$226.83 (+3.8%) |
TREND_BREAK
23.6h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 23, 2025 10:05am ET | $7.14 | 863 | $6,161.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 23, 2025 1:25pm ET | $7.03 | 863 | $6,062.58 | $6,065.98 |
$-99.16 (-1.6%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.3h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 25, 2025 9:55am ET | $7.35 | 825 | $6,064.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 25, 2025 1:10pm ET | $7.43 | 825 | $6,125.63 | $6,126.95 |
+$60.97 (+1.0%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.3h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 30, 2025 9:30am ET | $7.42 | 825 | $6,122.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 30, 2025 2:45pm ET | $7.54 | 825 | $6,216.38 | $6,220.84 |
+$93.89 (+1.5%) |
TREND_BREAK
5.3h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 2, 2025 9:30am ET | $7.90 | 787 | $6,217.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 2, 2025 10:00am ET | $7.65 | 787 | $6,020.63 | $6,024.16 |
$-196.67 (-3.2%) |
TREND_BREAK
30m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 8, 2025 9:55am ET | $7.77 | 775 | $6,017.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 9, 2025 9:30am ET | $7.59 | 775 | $5,882.17 | $5,888.46 |
$-135.70 (-2.2%) |
TREND_BREAK
23.6h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 13, 2025 9:30am ET | $7.11 | 827 | $5,883.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 13, 2025 2:40pm ET | $7.15 | 827 | $5,908.92 | $5,913.93 |
+$25.47 (+0.4%) |
TREND_BREAK
5.2h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 20, 2025 10:45am ET | $7.00 | 844 | $5,908.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 20, 2025 3:25pm ET | $7.02 | 844 | $5,927.58 | $5,933.43 |
+$19.50 (+0.3%) |
TREND_BREAK
4.7h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 29, 2025 10:15am ET | $7.31 | 811 | $5,931.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 29, 2025 11:15am ET | $7.10 | 811 | $5,758.10 | $5,760.36 |
$-173.07 (-2.9%) |
TREND_BREAK
1h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 3, 2025 9:35am ET | $7.42 | 776 | $5,757.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 4, 2025 9:30am ET | $7.10 | 776 | $5,505.72 | $5,508.24 |
$-252.12 (-4.4%) |
TREND_BREAK
23.9h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 10, 2025 10:05am ET | $7.04 | 782 | $5,501.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 10, 2025 12:05pm ET | $6.91 | 782 | $5,403.62 | $5,410.49 |
$-97.75 (-1.8%) |
TREND_BREAK
2h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 24, 2025 9:55am ET | $5.82 | 929 | $5,406.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 24, 2025 2:55pm ET | $5.80 | 929 | $5,388.20 | $5,391.91 |
$-18.58 (-0.3%) |
TREND_BREAK
5h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 28, 2025 9:30am ET | $5.57 | 968 | $5,391.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 1, 2025 9:30am ET | $5.39 | 968 | $5,217.52 | $5,217.67 |
$-174.24 (-3.2%) |
TREND_BREAK
3d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 4, 2025 9:30am ET | $4.97 | 1,049 | $5,213.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 4, 2025 2:20pm ET | $4.95 | 1,049 | $5,192.65 | $5,196.79 |
$-20.88 (-0.4%) |
TREND_BREAK
4.8h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 8, 2025 10:00am ET | $5.23 | 994 | $5,195.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 8, 2025 1:15pm ET | $5.12 | 994 | $5,089.28 | $5,090.73 |
$-106.06 (-2.0%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.3h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 26, 2025 10:30am ET | $5.09 | 1,001 | $5,090.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 26, 2025 3:55pm ET | $5.11 | 1,001 | $5,115.11 | $5,115.76 |
+$25.03 (+0.5%) |
TREND_BREAK
5.4h held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 30, 2025 9:30am ET | $5.58 | 916 | $5,115.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 30, 2025 12:35pm ET | $5.57 | 916 | $5,102.12 | $5,102.57 |
$-13.19 (-0.3%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.1h held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 12, 2026 9:50am ET | $4.83 | 1,057 | $5,100.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 1:20pm ET | $4.86 | 1,057 | $5,131.74 | $5,134.28 |
+$31.71 (+0.6%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.5h held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $4.76 | 1,079 | $5,130.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 22, 2026 1:00pm ET | $4.82 | 1,079 | $5,200.78 | $5,204.41 |
+$70.14 (+1.4%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.5h held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $4.80 | 1,083 | $5,202.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 28, 2026 10:40am ET | $4.65 | 1,083 | $5,035.95 | $5,037.96 |
$-166.46 (-3.2%) |
TREND_BREAK
1.2h held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $4.76 | 1,057 | $5,036.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 2:40pm ET | $4.82 | 1,057 | $5,089.46 | $5,090.81 |
+$52.85 (+1.1%) |
TREND_BREAK
5.2h held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $5.22 | 975 | $5,089.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 1:25pm ET | $5.30 | 975 | $5,167.50 | $5,168.81 |
+$78.00 (+1.5%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.9h held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 10:00am ET | $4.72 | 1,096 | $5,167.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 4, 2026 3:30pm ET | $4.88 | 1,096 | $5,343.00 | $5,344.17 |
+$175.36 (+3.4%) |
TREND_BREAK
5.5h held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $5.18 | 1,031 | $5,341.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 11, 2026 10:45am ET | $5.63 | 1,031 | $5,803.81 | $5,806.68 |
+$462.51 (+8.7%) |
TREND_BREAK
1.1d held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 13, 2026 9:35am ET | $5.79 | 1,002 | $5,801.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 13, 2026 2:50pm ET | $5.84 | 1,002 | $5,846.67 | $5,851.87 |
+$45.19 (+0.8%) |
TREND_BREAK
5.3h held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 9:50am ET | $5.66 | 1,032 | $5,846.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 23, 2026 1:25pm ET | $5.73 | 1,032 | $5,913.26 | $5,918.85 |
+$66.98 (+1.1%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.6h held |
|
| 49 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 10:25am ET | $5.55 | 1,066 | $5,918.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 1:25pm ET | $5.52 | 1,066 | $5,884.43 | $5,885.06 |
$-33.79 (-0.6%) |
TREND_BREAK
3h held |
|
| 50 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $6.29 | 935 | $5,879.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 12:25pm ET | $6.10 | 935 | $5,703.50 | $5,709.00 |
$-176.06 (-3.0%) |
TREND_BREAK
2.9h held |
|
| 51 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 9:35am ET | $6.42 | 889 | $5,705.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 12:10pm ET | $6.32 | 889 | $5,617.15 | $5,620.28 |
$-88.72 (-1.6%) |
TREND_BREAK
2.6h held |
|
| 52 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $6.43 | 874 | $5,619.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 2:15pm ET | $6.45 | 874 | $5,638.96 | $5,639.42 |
+$19.14 (+0.3%) |
TREND_BREAK
4.8h held |
|
| 53 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 9:45am ET | $6.34 | 890 | $5,638.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 1:20pm ET | $6.44 | 890 | $5,731.60 | $5,732.87 |
+$93.45 (+1.7%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.6h held |
|
| 54 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $6.65 | 862 | $5,731.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 12:45pm ET | $6.86 | 862 | $5,909.01 | $5,910.44 |
+$177.57 (+3.1%) |
TREND_BREAK
1.1d held |
|
| 55 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 10:10am ET | $6.45 | 915 | $5,906.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 10:50am ET | $6.25 | 915 | $5,718.75 | $5,722.87 |
$-187.57 (-3.2%) |
TREND_BREAK
40m held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$5,722.87
Net Profit/Loss:
$-4,277.13
Total Return:
-42.77%