SMCI Trent Follower's Analysis
Last Year: 2025-05-08 to present • 54 trades in period
+18.89%
Last Year Return
$29,788.07
Current Value
46%
Win Rate
$25,054.63
Period Start
PHASE 4: RECOVERY
Bounce in progress. Hold existing positions, let trailing stops manage exits.
Fear & Greed
38
Fear
VIX
17.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.36%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.75
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
45.9 neutral
20d Trend
+4.5%
5d Trend
+2.6%
EMA20 Dist
-2.9%
ATR%
6.5%
Range Pos
8%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
Strategy Score Scored May 7, 2026
50
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
21.4/35
Total Return
18.6/25
Win Rate
1.7/15
Profit Factor
2.9/15
Consistency
6.4/10
Raw Quality
51.1/100
× Confidence 0.98
= 50.2
30-Day Momentum
18
+2.3%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
6
Trades
1.2×
Profit Factor
Quality: 24.3
Conf: 0.74×
Declining (-32 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last Year)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
39,948
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-05-08 → 2026-05-07
Trading Days
265 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)
Market Closed (10 days)
2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last Year)
Period Start Capital
$25,054.63
Current Value
$29,788.07
Period P&L
$4,733.45
Max Drawdown
-28.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.12
Trade Statistics (Last Year)
Trades in Period
54
Winners / Losers
25 /
29
Best Trade
+9.91%
Worst Trade
-4.66%
Avg Trade Return
+0.38%
Avg Hold Time
9.3h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$2,706,511.03
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$4,733.45
Net P&L (after fees)
$4,733.45
Gross Return
+18.89%
Net Return (after fees)
+18.89%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 SMCI Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 265 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last Year - 54 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Trent Follower had $25,054.63 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | May 7, 2025 3:40pm ET | $32.50 | 766 | $24,895.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 8, 2025 1:10pm ET | $32.45 | 766 | $24,852.87 | $24,859.31 |
$-42.13 (-0.2%) |
TREND_BREAK
21.5h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | May 12, 2025 9:30am ET | $34.57 | 719 | $24,855.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 12, 2025 1:35pm ET | $33.62 | 719 | $24,169.19 | $24,172.67 |
$-686.64 (-2.8%) |
TREND_BREAK
4.1h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | May 14, 2025 9:30am ET | $45.83 | 527 | $24,152.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 14, 2025 1:20pm ET | $44.44 | 527 | $23,419.88 | $23,440.14 |
$-732.53 (-3.0%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.8h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | May 16, 2025 9:30am ET | $46.02 | 509 | $23,424.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 16, 2025 12:10pm ET | $45.41 | 509 | $23,113.69 | $23,129.65 |
$-310.49 (-1.3%) |
TREND_BREAK
2.7h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | May 27, 2025 9:45am ET | $41.30 | 560 | $23,125.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 27, 2025 2:15pm ET | $42.71 | 560 | $23,917.71 | $23,922.16 |
+$792.51 (+3.4%) |
TREND_BREAK
4.5h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | May 29, 2025 9:30am ET | $43.96 | 544 | $23,914.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 29, 2025 10:00am ET | $41.91 | 544 | $22,799.04 | $22,806.96 |
$-1,115.20 (-4.7%) |
TREND_BREAK
30m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 3, 2025 10:25am ET | $42.35 | 538 | $22,783.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 3, 2025 2:00pm ET | $42.97 | 538 | $23,119.66 | $23,143.51 |
+$336.55 (+1.5%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.6h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 9, 2025 10:20am ET | $43.12 | 536 | $23,112.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2025 2:35pm ET | $42.77 | 536 | $22,924.72 | $22,955.91 |
$-187.60 (-0.8%) |
TREND_BREAK
4.3h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 11, 2025 11:00am ET | $44.52 | 515 | $22,925.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 11, 2025 12:15pm ET | $43.26 | 515 | $22,277.82 | $22,308.50 |
$-647.41 (-2.8%) |
TREND_BREAK
1.3h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 16, 2025 9:45am ET | $42.98 | 519 | $22,306.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 16, 2025 2:30pm ET | $43.60 | 519 | $22,629.70 | $22,631.58 |
+$323.08 (+1.4%) |
TREND_BREAK
4.8h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 18, 2025 1:00pm ET | $45.58 | 496 | $22,607.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 18, 2025 3:00pm ET | $44.50 | 496 | $22,069.52 | $22,093.42 |
$-538.16 (-2.4%) |
TREND_BREAK
2h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 25, 2025 9:30am ET | $44.28 | 498 | $22,051.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 26, 2025 2:35pm ET | $48.67 | 498 | $24,237.66 | $24,279.64 |
+$2,186.22 (+9.9%) |
TREND_BREAK
1.2d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 30, 2025 10:00am ET | $49.76 | 487 | $24,233.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 30, 2025 1:10pm ET | $49.31 | 487 | $24,013.97 | $24,060.49 |
$-219.15 (-0.9%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.2h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 10, 2025 9:30am ET | $50.92 | 472 | $24,034.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 10, 2025 1:05pm ET | $50.38 | 472 | $23,781.63 | $23,807.87 |
$-252.61 (-1.1%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.6h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 15, 2025 9:30am ET | $51.79 | 459 | $23,771.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 15, 2025 2:35pm ET | $53.37 | 459 | $24,494.54 | $24,530.80 |
+$722.93 (+3.0%) |
TREND_BREAK
5.1h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 21, 2025 10:25am ET | $53.68 | 456 | $24,478.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 21, 2025 12:10pm ET | $52.67 | 456 | $24,017.52 | $24,070.24 |
$-460.56 (-1.9%) |
TREND_BREAK
1.8h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 28, 2025 9:30am ET | $56.08 | 429 | $24,059.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 29, 2025 11:15am ET | $59.39 | 429 | $25,476.59 | $25,487.78 |
+$1,417.54 (+5.9%) |
TREND_BREAK
1.1d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 4, 2025 9:30am ET | $58.34 | 436 | $25,435.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 4, 2025 1:40pm ET | $58.78 | 436 | $25,628.08 | $25,680.06 |
+$192.28 (+0.8%) |
TREND_BREAK
4.2h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 6, 2025 2:30pm ET | $47.13 | 544 | $25,636.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 7, 2025 11:30am ET | $47.11 | 544 | $25,627.84 | $25,671.90 |
$-8.16 (-0.0%) |
TREND_BREAK
21h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 22, 2025 10:05am ET | $43.47 | 590 | $25,647.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 25, 2025 9:30am ET | $43.52 | 590 | $25,678.57 | $25,703.17 |
+$31.27 (+0.1%) |
TREND_BREAK
3d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 9, 2025 11:25am ET | $41.58 | 618 | $25,696.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 10, 2025 12:35pm ET | $44.16 | 618 | $27,290.88 | $27,297.61 |
+$1,594.44 (+6.2%) |
TREND_BREAK
1.1d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 12, 2025 9:30am ET | $45.99 | 593 | $27,272.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 12, 2025 1:10pm ET | $45.21 | 593 | $26,807.45 | $26,832.99 |
$-464.62 (-1.7%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.7h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 22, 2025 12:30pm ET | $48.05 | 558 | $26,811.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 22, 2025 2:40pm ET | $46.94 | 558 | $26,192.52 | $26,213.61 |
$-619.38 (-2.3%) |
TREND_BREAK
2.2h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 30, 2025 9:55am ET | $48.04 | 545 | $26,181.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 30, 2025 11:35am ET | $46.83 | 545 | $25,522.40 | $25,554.22 |
$-659.40 (-2.5%) |
TREND_BREAK
1.7h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 1, 2025 11:35am ET | $49.92 | 511 | $25,509.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 2, 2025 1:25pm ET | $51.89 | 511 | $26,513.24 | $26,558.33 |
+$1,004.12 (+3.9%) |
TREND_BREAK
1.1d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 6, 2025 9:30am ET | $54.16 | 490 | $26,539.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 6, 2025 1:00pm ET | $54.32 | 490 | $26,616.80 | $26,635.66 |
+$77.32 (+0.3%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.5h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 8, 2025 11:15am ET | $57.31 | 464 | $26,590.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 9, 2025 9:30am ET | $57.68 | 464 | $26,763.47 | $26,808.77 |
+$173.12 (+0.7%) |
TREND_BREAK
22.3h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 20, 2025 9:30am ET | $55.81 | 480 | $26,788.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 20, 2025 2:25pm ET | $55.42 | 480 | $26,599.20 | $26,619.17 |
$-189.60 (-0.7%) |
TREND_BREAK
4.9h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 27, 2025 9:35am ET | $51.09 | 521 | $26,617.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 27, 2025 1:20pm ET | $50.49 | 521 | $26,306.59 | $26,307.88 |
$-311.30 (-1.2%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.8h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 10, 2025 9:30am ET | $41.36 | 636 | $26,304.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 10, 2025 11:35am ET | $40.02 | 636 | $25,452.72 | $25,455.64 |
$-852.24 (-3.2%) |
TREND_BREAK
2.1h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 14, 2025 10:35am ET | $36.49 | 697 | $25,433.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 14, 2025 1:35pm ET | $36.46 | 697 | $25,412.62 | $25,434.73 |
$-20.91 (-0.1%) |
TREND_BREAK
3h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 20, 2025 9:30am ET | $35.33 | 719 | $25,402.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 20, 2025 11:15am ET | $33.84 | 719 | $24,330.96 | $24,363.42 |
$-1,071.31 (-4.2%) |
TREND_BREAK
1.8h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $30.30 | 804 | $24,361.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2026 1:45pm ET | $30.88 | 804 | $24,827.44 | $24,829.66 |
+$466.24 (+1.9%) |
TREND_BREAK
4.3h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 15, 2026 9:35am ET | $29.15 | 851 | $24,806.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 15, 2026 3:05pm ET | $29.54 | 851 | $25,134.29 | $25,157.29 |
+$327.64 (+1.3%) |
TREND_BREAK
5.5h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 3:00pm ET | $32.63 | 771 | $25,153.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 22, 2026 12:50pm ET | $32.76 | 771 | $25,261.04 | $25,264.46 |
+$107.17 (+0.4%) |
TREND_BREAK
21.8h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 28, 2026 10:05am ET | $32.15 | 785 | $25,237.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 28, 2026 11:40am ET | $31.38 | 785 | $24,629.38 | $24,656.08 |
$-608.37 (-2.4%) |
TREND_BREAK
1.6h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 12:15pm ET | $30.49 | 808 | $24,635.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 2:30pm ET | $30.33 | 808 | $24,510.68 | $24,530.84 |
$-125.24 (-0.5%) |
TREND_BREAK
2.3h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $33.56 | 730 | $24,498.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 12:30pm ET | $32.23 | 730 | $23,527.90 | $23,559.94 |
$-970.90 (-4.0%) |
TREND_BREAK
3h held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 9:45am ET | $32.95 | 715 | $23,559.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 2:10pm ET | $33.81 | 715 | $24,174.15 | $24,174.84 |
+$614.90 (+2.6%) |
TREND_BREAK
4.4h held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $31.25 | 773 | $24,156.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 19, 2026 1:20pm ET | $31.23 | 773 | $24,137.47 | $24,156.06 |
$-18.78 (-0.1%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.8h held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2026 9:35am ET | $32.04 | 753 | $24,126.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $33.07 | 753 | $24,901.71 | $24,931.65 |
+$775.59 (+3.2%) |
TREND_BREAK
23.9h held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 27, 2026 10:10am ET | $32.93 | 757 | $24,928.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 27, 2026 11:45am ET | $32.22 | 757 | $24,390.62 | $24,394.26 |
$-537.39 (-2.2%) |
TREND_BREAK
1.6h held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 11:00am ET | $32.08 | 760 | $24,377.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 4, 2026 3:25pm ET | $32.42 | 760 | $24,639.20 | $24,656.46 |
+$262.20 (+1.1%) |
TREND_BREAK
4.4h held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $31.50 | 782 | $24,633.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 17, 2026 11:25am ET | $32.08 | 782 | $25,082.65 | $25,106.11 |
+$449.65 (+1.8%) |
TREND_BREAK
1.1d held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 11:10am ET | $21.77 | 1,153 | $25,099.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 23, 2026 3:25pm ET | $21.73 | 1,153 | $25,057.57 | $25,064.49 |
$-41.62 (-0.2%) |
TREND_BREAK
4.3h held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 9:35am ET | $23.06 | 1,086 | $25,043.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 1:45pm ET | $23.77 | 1,086 | $25,819.65 | $25,840.98 |
+$776.49 (+3.1%) |
TREND_BREAK
4.2h held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 31, 2026 12:45pm ET | $22.14 | 1,167 | $25,837.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 11:30am ET | $22.75 | 1,167 | $26,555.08 | $26,558.68 |
+$717.70 (+2.8%) |
TREND_BREAK
22.8h held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $24.03 | 1,105 | $26,553.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 2:35pm ET | $23.36 | 1,105 | $25,812.80 | $25,818.33 |
$-740.35 (-2.8%) |
TREND_BREAK
5.1h held |
|
| 49 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 9:45am ET | $24.22 | 1,065 | $25,794.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 2:50pm ET | $25.07 | 1,065 | $26,699.44 | $26,723.47 |
+$905.14 (+3.5%) |
TREND_BREAK
5.1h held |
|
| 50 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $27.00 | 989 | $26,703.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 1:50pm ET | $27.42 | 989 | $27,113.44 | $27,133.91 |
+$410.44 (+1.5%) |
TREND_BREAK
4.3h held |
|
| 51 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 9:55am ET | $29.63 | 915 | $27,111.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 12:30pm ET | $29.28 | 915 | $26,795.77 | $26,818.24 |
$-315.67 (-1.2%) |
TREND_BREAK
2.6h held |
|
| 52 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 24, 2026 9:40am ET | $27.98 | 958 | $26,804.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 24, 2026 3:40pm ET | $28.86 | 958 | $27,647.98 | $27,661.38 |
+$843.14 (+3.1%) |
TREND_BREAK
6h held |
|
| 53 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 9:45am ET | $28.23 | 979 | $27,637.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 12:10pm ET | $27.73 | 979 | $27,147.57 | $27,171.88 |
$-489.50 (-1.8%) |
TREND_BREAK
2.4h held |
|
| 54 | 🟢 BUY | May 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $31.36 | 866 | $27,157.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 7, 2026 12:00pm ET | $34.38 | 866 | $29,773.95 | $29,788.07 |
+$2,616.19 (+9.6%) |
TREND_BREAK
1.1d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$29,788.07
Net Profit/Loss:
+$19,788.07
Total Return:
+197.88%