VXX Trent Follower's Analysis
Last Year: 2025-05-06 to present • 46 trades in period
-36.63%
Last Year Return
$9,206.89
Current Value
30%
Win Rate
$14,527.69
Period Start
PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
62.8 neutral
20d Trend
+12.6%
5d Trend
+8.3%
EMA20 Dist
+8.3%
ATR%
4.8%
Range Pos
29%
Bounce Ratio
1.8×
Green/Red 10d
7/3
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 5, 2026
4
Lifetime
Confidence: 97%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.8/10
Raw Quality
3.8/100
× Confidence 0.97
= 3.7
30-Day Momentum
0
-5.3%
30d Return
0%
Win Rate
3
Trades
0.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 0.0
Conf: 0.61×
Cooling (-4 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (97%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last Year)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
34,674
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-05-06 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
265 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)
Market Closed (10 days)
2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last Year)
Period Start Capital
$14,527.69
Current Value
$9,206.89
Period P&L
$-5,320.83
Max Drawdown
-29.8%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.38
Trade Statistics (Last Year)
Trades in Period
46
Winners / Losers
14 /
32
Best Trade
+7.11%
Worst Trade
-5.14%
Avg Trade Return
-0.96%
Avg Hold Time
12.9h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,020,880.26
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-5,320.83
Net P&L (after fees)
$-5,320.83
Gross Return
-36.63%
Net Return (after fees)
-36.63%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 VXX Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 265 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last Year - 46 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Trent Follower had $14,527.69 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | May 6, 2025 9:30am ET | $63.38 | 229 | $14,514.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 7, 2025 9:55am ET | $63.53 | 229 | $14,548.37 | $14,561.07 |
+$33.39 (+0.2%) |
TREND_BREAK
1d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | May 19, 2025 9:30am ET | $53.73 | 271 | $14,559.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 19, 2025 12:15pm ET | $52.53 | 271 | $14,235.63 | $14,237.23 |
$-323.85 (-2.2%) |
TREND_BREAK
2.8h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | May 21, 2025 1:20pm ET | $54.56 | 260 | $14,185.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 22, 2025 10:00am ET | $54.37 | 260 | $14,136.20 | $14,187.80 |
$-49.43 (-0.3%) |
TREND_BREAK
20.7h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | May 23, 2025 10:00am ET | $58.74 | 241 | $14,156.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 23, 2025 1:05pm ET | $57.50 | 241 | $13,856.30 | $13,887.76 |
$-300.05 (-2.1%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.1h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | May 30, 2025 12:50pm ET | $55.79 | 248 | $13,835.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 30, 2025 2:05pm ET | $54.34 | 248 | $13,476.32 | $13,528.16 |
$-359.60 (-2.6%) |
TREND_BREAK
1.3h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 5, 2025 3:15pm ET | $53.11 | 254 | $13,489.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 6, 2025 9:30am ET | $51.57 | 254 | $13,098.78 | $13,137.00 |
$-391.16 (-2.9%) |
TREND_BREAK
18.3h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 11, 2025 3:30pm ET | $51.24 | 256 | $13,117.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 12, 2025 12:35pm ET | $50.60 | 256 | $12,954.06 | $12,973.62 |
$-163.38 (-1.2%) |
TREND_BREAK
21.1h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 13, 2025 2:25pm ET | $55.14 | 235 | $12,957.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 16, 2025 9:30am ET | $52.31 | 235 | $12,291.68 | $12,307.39 |
$-666.23 (-5.1%) |
TREND_BREAK
2.8d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 17, 2025 2:00pm ET | $54.48 | 225 | $12,258.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 17, 2025 3:45pm ET | $53.58 | 225 | $12,055.50 | $12,104.83 |
$-202.57 (-1.6%) |
TREND_BREAK
1.8h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 23, 2025 12:30pm ET | $55.22 | 219 | $12,093.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 23, 2025 1:10pm ET | $53.50 | 219 | $11,716.54 | $11,728.19 |
$-376.64 (-3.1%) |
TREND_BREAK
42m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 16, 2025 11:15am ET | $47.09 | 249 | $11,725.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 16, 2025 12:50pm ET | $45.93 | 249 | $11,436.57 | $11,439.35 |
$-288.84 (-2.5%) |
TREND_BREAK
1.6h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 1, 2025 9:30am ET | $44.87 | 254 | $11,396.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 1, 2025 2:35pm ET | $45.77 | 254 | $11,624.31 | $11,666.68 |
+$227.33 (+2.0%) |
TREND_BREAK
5.1h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 2, 2025 9:30am ET | $38.33 | 304 | $11,651.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 2, 2025 1:20pm ET | $37.98 | 304 | $11,544.40 | $11,559.52 |
$-107.16 (-0.9%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.8h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 10, 2025 11:00am ET | $34.62 | 333 | $11,526.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 13, 2025 9:30am ET | $35.40 | 333 | $11,788.17 | $11,820.89 |
+$261.37 (+2.3%) |
TREND_BREAK
2.9d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 14, 2025 9:30am ET | $37.09 | 318 | $11,793.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 14, 2025 11:45am ET | $35.67 | 318 | $11,343.06 | $11,370.92 |
$-449.97 (-3.8%) |
TREND_BREAK
2.3h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 15, 2025 1:05pm ET | $36.96 | 307 | $11,346.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 15, 2025 3:15pm ET | $36.18 | 307 | $11,107.26 | $11,131.46 |
$-239.46 (-2.1%) |
TREND_BREAK
2.2h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 16, 2025 3:15pm ET | $40.03 | 278 | $11,128.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 17, 2025 10:10am ET | $38.95 | 278 | $10,828.10 | $10,831.22 |
$-300.24 (-2.7%) |
TREND_BREAK
18.9h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 22, 2025 1:20pm ET | $35.35 | 306 | $10,817.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 22, 2025 2:55pm ET | $34.64 | 306 | $10,598.34 | $10,612.46 |
$-218.76 (-2.0%) |
TREND_BREAK
1.6h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 4, 2025 9:30am ET | $35.16 | 301 | $10,582.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 4, 2025 2:20pm ET | $34.63 | 301 | $10,423.63 | $10,453.29 |
$-159.17 (-1.5%) |
TREND_BREAK
4.8h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 6, 2025 10:00am ET | $34.83 | 300 | $10,447.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 6, 2025 1:30pm ET | $34.77 | 300 | $10,431.00 | $10,436.79 |
$-16.50 (-0.2%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.5h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 13, 2025 1:30pm ET | $34.97 | 298 | $10,421.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 14, 2025 10:35am ET | $35.28 | 298 | $10,511.95 | $10,527.68 |
+$90.89 (+0.9%) |
TREND_BREAK
21.1h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 17, 2025 2:45pm ET | $36.45 | 288 | $10,497.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 18, 2025 11:40am ET | $37.12 | 288 | $10,690.56 | $10,720.64 |
+$192.96 (+1.8%) |
TREND_BREAK
20.9h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 20, 2025 11:40am ET | $37.18 | 288 | $10,707.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 21, 2025 9:30am ET | $38.23 | 288 | $11,010.24 | $11,023.04 |
+$302.40 (+2.8%) |
TREND_BREAK
21.8h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 12, 2025 11:20am ET | $30.58 | 360 | $11,008.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 12, 2025 1:00pm ET | $29.84 | 360 | $10,742.40 | $10,756.64 |
$-266.40 (-2.4%) |
TREND_BREAK
1.7h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 14, 2026 9:35am ET | $27.31 | 393 | $10,733.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2026 1:25pm ET | $27.50 | 393 | $10,805.54 | $10,829.07 |
+$72.43 (+0.7%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.8h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $28.04 | 386 | $10,823.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $28.29 | 386 | $10,919.94 | $10,925.57 |
+$96.50 (+0.9%) |
TREND_BREAK
1d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 9:35am ET | $27.79 | 393 | $10,920.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 12:10pm ET | $27.55 | 393 | $10,827.15 | $10,832.71 |
$-92.87 (-0.8%) |
TREND_BREAK
2.6h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 12:10pm ET | $27.45 | 394 | $10,815.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 3:10pm ET | $27.53 | 394 | $10,846.82 | $10,864.23 |
+$31.52 (+0.3%) |
TREND_BREAK
3h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 10:05am ET | $29.13 | 372 | $10,836.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 11:45am ET | $28.49 | 372 | $10,598.28 | $10,626.15 |
$-238.08 (-2.2%) |
TREND_BREAK
1.7h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $29.48 | 360 | $10,612.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 17, 2026 11:15am ET | $28.98 | 360 | $10,431.00 | $10,444.35 |
$-181.80 (-1.7%) |
TREND_BREAK
1.8h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $29.01 | 359 | $10,416.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 19, 2026 2:15pm ET | $29.10 | 359 | $10,446.33 | $10,474.29 |
+$29.94 (+0.3%) |
TREND_BREAK
4.8h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 23, 2026 11:05am ET | $29.44 | 355 | $10,452.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 1:15pm ET | $28.92 | 355 | $10,267.31 | $10,288.63 |
$-185.66 (-1.8%) |
TREND_BREAK
2.2h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 26, 2026 10:25am ET | $28.69 | 358 | $10,271.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 1:35pm ET | $28.21 | 358 | $10,099.18 | $10,116.79 |
$-171.84 (-1.7%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.2h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $30.60 | 330 | $10,098.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 11:10am ET | $29.20 | 330 | $9,636.00 | $9,654.79 |
$-462.00 (-4.6%) |
TREND_BREAK
1.7h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 11:10am ET | $32.44 | 297 | $9,634.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 12:20pm ET | $31.30 | 297 | $9,294.62 | $9,314.73 |
$-340.06 (-3.5%) |
TREND_BREAK
1.2h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $30.40 | 306 | $9,302.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 5, 2026 3:10pm ET | $31.82 | 306 | $9,736.92 | $9,749.25 |
+$434.52 (+4.7%) |
TREND_BREAK
5.7h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 3:35pm ET | $35.10 | 277 | $9,722.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 11:20am ET | $35.04 | 277 | $9,707.46 | $9,734.01 |
$-15.24 (-0.2%) |
TREND_BREAK
2.8d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 2:20pm ET | $32.49 | 299 | $9,714.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 11, 2026 12:55pm ET | $33.12 | 299 | $9,901.39 | $9,920.89 |
+$186.88 (+1.9%) |
TREND_BREAK
22.6h held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $32.92 | 301 | $9,910.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 18, 2026 1:55pm ET | $33.96 | 301 | $10,221.96 | $10,232.73 |
+$311.84 (+3.1%) |
TREND_BREAK
4.4h held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 10:25am ET | $35.46 | 288 | $10,212.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 20, 2026 12:05pm ET | $34.43 | 288 | $9,915.84 | $9,936.46 |
$-296.27 (-2.9%) |
TREND_BREAK
1.7h held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $35.39 | 280 | $9,909.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 10:10am ET | $34.08 | 280 | $9,541.00 | $9,568.26 |
$-368.20 (-3.7%) |
TREND_BREAK
40m held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 9:40am ET | $35.51 | 269 | $9,550.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $38.03 | 269 | $10,230.07 | $10,247.48 |
+$679.22 (+7.1%) |
TREND_BREAK
4d held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $36.83 | 278 | $10,238.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 10:40am ET | $34.96 | 278 | $9,718.88 | $9,727.62 |
$-519.86 (-5.1%) |
TREND_BREAK
1.2h held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 9:50am ET | $35.25 | 275 | $9,693.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 12:50pm ET | $35.17 | 275 | $9,671.75 | $9,705.62 |
$-22.00 (-0.2%) |
TREND_BREAK
3h held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 1:45pm ET | $30.85 | 314 | $9,688.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 2:10pm ET | $29.71 | 314 | $9,328.94 | $9,346.09 |
$-359.53 (-3.7%) |
TREND_BREAK
25m held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | May 4, 2026 12:10pm ET | $29.14 | 320 | $9,323.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 3:10pm ET | $28.70 | 320 | $9,184.00 | $9,206.89 |
$-139.20 (-1.5%) |
TREND_BREAK
3h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$9,206.89
Net Profit/Loss:
$-793.11
Total Return:
-7.93%