Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-06-20 14:23:45

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
23
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟠 1.6
Active
RSI(14)
23.9 oversold
20d Trend
-14.4%
5d Trend
-9.1%
EMA20 Dist
-9.2%
ATR%
3.4%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Active magnetosphere: slight tilt toward volume/macro strategies.

Strategy Score Scored Jun 20, 2026

3
Lifetime
Confidence: 76%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.8/10
Raw Quality 3.8/100
× Confidence 0.76 = 2.9

30-Day Momentum

18
+5.0%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
3
Trades
1.5×
Profit Factor
Quality: 29.3 Conf: 0.61×
Accelerating (+15 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (76%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,914
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-20 → 2026-06-18
Trading Days
63 days
Data Gaps
None (3 market holidays)

Market Closed (3 days)

2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$9,393.18
Current Value
$9,613.77
Period P&L
$220.60
Max Drawdown
-7.8%
Sharpe Ratio
0.15

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
4
Winners / Losers
1 / 3
Best Trade
+8.47%
Worst Trade
-2.53%
Avg Trade Return
+0.69%
Avg Hold Time
20.8h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$75,822.55
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$220.60
Net P&L (after fees)
$220.60
Gross Return
+2.35%
Net Return (after fees)
+2.35%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 ADBE Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 63 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 4 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Trent Follower had $9,393.18 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY May 19, 2026 9:50am ET $263.77 35 $9,231.95
🔴 SELL May 19, 2026 11:25am ET $257.10 35 $8,998.50 $9,159.72 $-233.45
(-2.5%)
TREND_BREAK
1.6h held
2 🟢 BUY May 29, 2026 10:35am ET $251.50 36 $9,054.00
🔴 SELL Jun 1, 2026 2:30pm ET $272.80 36 $9,820.62 $9,926.34 +$766.62
(+8.5%)
TREND_BREAK
3.2d held
3 🟢 BUY Jun 4, 2026 10:00am ET $265.80 37 $9,834.78
🔴 SELL Jun 4, 2026 12:35pm ET $260.72 37 $9,646.64 $9,738.20 $-188.14
(-1.9%)
TREND_BREAK
2.6h held
4 🟢 BUY Jun 15, 2026 9:35am ET $210.44 46 $9,680.24
🔴 SELL Jun 15, 2026 12:45pm ET $207.74 46 $9,555.81 $9,613.77 $-124.43
(-1.3%)
TREND_BREAK
3.2h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $9,613.77
Net Profit/Loss: $-386.23
Total Return: -3.86%
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