Compendium › Trent Follower › AVAXUSD
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
AVAXUSD
Alpaca Tradeable

Trent Follower's Analysis

Last 3 Months: 2026-03-20 to present • 8 trades in period

-2.27%
Last 3 Months Return
$5,127.61
Current Value
50%
Win Rate
$4,802.27
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-06-20 15:38:23

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
23
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟠 1.6
Active
RSI(14)
25.3 oversold
20d Trend
-38.3%
5d Trend
-38.9%
EMA20 Dist
-40.8%
ATR%
15.6%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
1.0×
Green/Red 10d
6/4
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Active magnetosphere: slight tilt toward volume/macro strategies.

Strategy Score Scored Jun 20, 2026

4
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.7/10
Raw Quality 3.7/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 3.6

30-Day Momentum

0
-3.3%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
3
Trades
0.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 0.0 Conf: 0.61×
Cooling (-4 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
26,732
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-20 → 2026-06-20
Trading Days
93 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$4,802.27
Current Value
$5,127.61
Period P&L
$-108.89
Max Drawdown
-51.9%
Sharpe Ratio
0.14

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
8
Winners / Losers
4 / 4
Best Trade
+3.62%
Worst Trade
-2.23%
Avg Trade Return
+0.26%
Avg Hold Time
3.7h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$82,625.53
Estimated Fees
$206.56
Gross P&L
$-108.89
Net P&L (after fees)
$-315.45
Gross Return
-2.27%
Net Return (after fees)
-6.57%

⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker). This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 AVAXUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 93 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 8 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Trent Follower had $4,802.27 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 23, 2026 7:10am ET $9.45 532 $5,029.95 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 23, 2026 11:40am ET $9.51 532 $5,061.89 $5,061.89 +$6.71
(+0.6%) 		TREND_BREAK
4.5h held
2 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2026 2:20am ET $9.26 547 $5,061.89 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 1, 2026 4:55am ET $9.24 547 $5,050.96 $5,050.96 $-36.21
(-0.2%) 		TREND_BREAK
2.6h held
3 🟢 BUY Apr 5, 2026 8:25pm ET $9.23 547 $5,050.96 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 6, 2026 12:00am ET $9.45 547 $5,171.35 $5,171.35 +$94.84
(+2.4%) 		TREND_BREAK
3.6h held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2026 5:50pm ET $9.12 567 $5,171.35 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 1:10am ET $9.45 567 $5,358.47 $5,358.47 +$160.80
(+3.6%) 		TREND_BREAK
7.3h held
5 🟢 BUY May 23, 2026 5:00pm ET $9.54 562 $5,358.47 — — —
🔴 SELL May 23, 2026 6:40pm ET $9.37 562 $5,262.98 $5,262.98 $-122.04
(-1.8%) 		TREND_BREAK
1.7h held
6 🟢 BUY Jun 7, 2026 6:15pm ET $6.86 767 $5,262.98 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 7, 2026 9:10pm ET $6.71 767 $5,145.63 $5,145.63 $-143.37
(-2.2%) 		TREND_BREAK
2.9h held
7 🟢 BUY Jun 14, 2026 5:40pm ET $6.66 772 $5,145.63 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 14, 2026 9:05pm ET $6.71 772 $5,182.70 $5,182.70 +$11.25
(+0.7%) 		TREND_BREAK
3.4h held
8 🟢 BUY Jun 20, 2026 3:30am ET $6.21 835 $5,182.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 20, 2026 7:15am ET $6.14 835 $5,127.61 $5,127.61 $-80.87
(-1.1%) 		TREND_BREAK
3.8h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $5,127.61
Net Profit/Loss: $-4,872.39
Total Return: -48.72%
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