Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-06-20 14:28:27

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
23
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟠 1.6
Active
RSI(14)
17.7 oversold
20d Trend
-28.4%
5d Trend
-8.8%
EMA20 Dist
-13.1%
ATR%
4.1%
Range Pos
12%
Bounce Ratio
0.1×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Active magnetosphere: slight tilt toward volume/macro strategies.

Strategy Score Scored Jun 20, 2026

42
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
16.2/35
Total Return
16.2/25
Win Rate
0.5/15
Profit Factor
3.2/15
Consistency
5.7/10
Raw Quality 41.8/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 41.5

30-Day Momentum

27
+3.6%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
6
Trades
1.4×
Profit Factor
Quality: 35.8 Conf: 0.74×
Declining (-15 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,914
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-20 → 2026-06-18
Trading Days
63 days
Data Gaps
None (3 market holidays)

Market Closed (3 days)

2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$20,882.49
Current Value
$18,874.18
Period P&L
$-2,008.30
Max Drawdown
-19.2%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.31

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
14
Winners / Losers
5 / 9
Best Trade
+4.44%
Worst Trade
-3.55%
Avg Trade Return
-0.70%
Avg Hold Time
5.9h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$540,947.95
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-2,008.30
Net P&L (after fees)
$-2,008.30
Gross Return
-9.62%
Net Return (after fees)
-9.62%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 RIVN Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 63 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 14 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Trent Follower had $20,882.49 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 23, 2026 9:40am ET $15.63 1,336 $20,881.68
🔴 SELL Mar 23, 2026 1:10pm ET $15.76 1,336 $21,055.49 $21,056.29 +$173.81
(+0.8%)
TREND_BREAK
3.5h held
2 🟢 BUY Mar 25, 2026 9:30am ET $16.33 1,289 $21,042.93
🔴 SELL Mar 25, 2026 11:00am ET $15.86 1,289 $20,443.41 $20,456.78 $-599.51
(-2.8%)
TREND_BREAK
1.5h held
3 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2026 9:30am ET $15.57 1,313 $20,443.41
🔴 SELL Apr 1, 2026 10:50am ET $15.10 1,313 $19,819.74 $19,833.11 $-623.67
(-3.1%)
TREND_BREAK
1.3h held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $15.39 1,288 $19,822.32
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 2:20pm ET $15.18 1,288 $19,551.84 $19,562.63 $-270.48
(-1.4%)
TREND_BREAK
4.8h held
5 🟢 BUY Apr 14, 2026 9:30am ET $16.47 1,187 $19,549.89
🔴 SELL Apr 14, 2026 10:15am ET $15.89 1,187 $18,855.50 $18,868.24 $-694.39
(-3.6%)
TREND_BREAK
45m held
6 🟢 BUY Apr 17, 2026 10:40am ET $17.59 1,072 $18,856.48
🔴 SELL Apr 17, 2026 1:15pm ET $17.40 1,072 $18,647.44 $18,659.20 $-209.04
(-1.1%)
TREND_BREAK
2.6h held
7 🟢 BUY Apr 22, 2026 12:00pm ET $17.92 1,041 $18,654.72
🔴 SELL Apr 22, 2026 2:35pm ET $17.69 1,041 $18,415.19 $18,419.67 $-239.53
(-1.3%)
TREND_BREAK
2.6h held
8 🟢 BUY May 13, 2026 11:20am ET $14.54 1,266 $18,407.64
🔴 SELL May 13, 2026 2:00pm ET $14.38 1,266 $18,205.21 $18,217.24 $-202.43
(-1.1%)
TREND_BREAK
2.7h held
9 🟢 BUY May 20, 2026 12:10pm ET $13.52 1,347 $18,204.71
🔴 SELL May 22, 2026 10:15am ET $14.11 1,347 $19,012.90 $19,025.44 +$808.20
(+4.4%)
TREND_BREAK
1.9d held
10 🟢 BUY May 29, 2026 11:45am ET $15.73 1,209 $19,023.61
🔴 SELL May 29, 2026 3:15pm ET $16.14 1,209 $19,507.22 $19,509.04 +$483.60
(+2.5%)
TREND_BREAK
3.5h held
11 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 10:45am ET $17.56 1,111 $19,503.61
🔴 SELL Jun 2, 2026 12:35pm ET $17.16 1,111 $19,064.76 $19,070.19 $-438.85
(-2.3%)
TREND_BREAK
1.8h held
12 🟢 BUY Jun 8, 2026 10:00am ET $17.12 1,113 $19,054.56
🔴 SELL Jun 8, 2026 1:35pm ET $17.30 1,113 $19,254.90 $19,270.53 +$200.34
(+1.1%)
TREND_BREAK
3.6h held
13 🟢 BUY Jun 12, 2026 9:35am ET $16.03 1,202 $19,268.18
🔴 SELL Jun 12, 2026 11:45am ET $15.61 1,202 $18,769.23 $18,771.58 $-498.95
(-2.6%)
TREND_BREAK
2.2h held
14 🟢 BUY Jun 17, 2026 9:40am ET $16.46 1,140 $18,764.40
🔴 SELL Jun 17, 2026 3:25pm ET $16.55 1,140 $18,867.00 $18,874.18 +$102.60
(+0.5%)
TREND_BREAK
5.8h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $18,874.18
Net Profit/Loss: +$8,874.18
Total Return: +88.74%
Back to Trent Follower