Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 4: RECOVERY
Signals generated 2026-05-08 02:40:29

Bounce in progress. Hold existing positions, let trailing stops manage exits.

Fear & Greed
38
Fear
VIX
17.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.36%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.75
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
45.9 neutral
20d Trend
+4.5%
5d Trend
+2.6%
EMA20 Dist
-2.9%
ATR%
6.5%
Range Pos
8%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
5/5

Strategy Score Scored May 7, 2026

50
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
21.4/35
Total Return
18.6/25
Win Rate
1.7/15
Profit Factor
2.9/15
Consistency
6.4/10
Raw Quality 51.1/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 50.2

30-Day Momentum

18
+2.3%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
6
Trades
1.2×
Profit Factor
Quality: 24.3 Conf: 0.74×
Declining (-32 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
15,993
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-11-08 → 2026-05-07
Trading Days
137 days
Data Gaps
None (6 market holidays)

Market Closed (6 days)

2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$26,307.87
Current Value
$29,788.07
Period P&L
$3,480.21
Max Drawdown
-28.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.18

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
25
Winners / Losers
13 / 12
Best Trade
+9.63%
Worst Trade
-4.22%
Avg Trade Return
+0.54%
Avg Hold Time
7.7h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,274,191.97
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$3,480.21
Net P&L (after fees)
$3,480.21
Gross Return
+13.23%
Net Return (after fees)
+13.23%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 SMCI Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 137 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 25 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Trent Follower had $26,307.87 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Nov 10, 2025 9:30am ET $41.36 636 $26,304.96
🔴 SELL Nov 10, 2025 11:35am ET $40.02 636 $25,452.72 $25,455.64 $-852.24
(-3.2%)
TREND_BREAK
2.1h held
2 🟢 BUY Nov 14, 2025 10:35am ET $36.49 697 $25,433.53
🔴 SELL Nov 14, 2025 1:35pm ET $36.46 697 $25,412.62 $25,434.73 $-20.91
(-0.1%)
TREND_BREAK
3h held
3 🟢 BUY Nov 20, 2025 9:30am ET $35.33 719 $25,402.27
🔴 SELL Nov 20, 2025 11:15am ET $33.84 719 $24,330.96 $24,363.42 $-1,071.31
(-4.2%)
TREND_BREAK
1.8h held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 2, 2026 9:30am ET $30.30 804 $24,361.20
🔴 SELL Jan 2, 2026 1:45pm ET $30.88 804 $24,827.44 $24,829.66 +$466.24
(+1.9%)
TREND_BREAK
4.3h held
5 🟢 BUY Jan 15, 2026 9:35am ET $29.15 851 $24,806.65
🔴 SELL Jan 15, 2026 3:05pm ET $29.54 851 $25,134.29 $25,157.29 +$327.64
(+1.3%)
TREND_BREAK
5.5h held
6 🟢 BUY Jan 21, 2026 3:00pm ET $32.63 771 $25,153.88
🔴 SELL Jan 22, 2026 12:50pm ET $32.76 771 $25,261.04 $25,264.46 +$107.17
(+0.4%)
TREND_BREAK
21.8h held
7 🟢 BUY Jan 28, 2026 10:05am ET $32.15 785 $25,237.75
🔴 SELL Jan 28, 2026 11:40am ET $31.38 785 $24,629.38 $24,656.08 $-608.37
(-2.4%)
TREND_BREAK
1.6h held
8 🟢 BUY Feb 2, 2026 12:15pm ET $30.49 808 $24,635.92
🔴 SELL Feb 2, 2026 2:30pm ET $30.33 808 $24,510.68 $24,530.84 $-125.24
(-0.5%)
TREND_BREAK
2.3h held
9 🟢 BUY Feb 4, 2026 9:30am ET $33.56 730 $24,498.80
🔴 SELL Feb 4, 2026 12:30pm ET $32.23 730 $23,527.90 $23,559.94 $-970.90
(-4.0%)
TREND_BREAK
3h held
10 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 9:45am ET $32.95 715 $23,559.25
🔴 SELL Feb 6, 2026 2:10pm ET $33.81 715 $24,174.15 $24,174.84 +$614.90
(+2.6%)
TREND_BREAK
4.4h held
11 🟢 BUY Feb 19, 2026 9:30am ET $31.25 773 $24,156.25
🔴 SELL Feb 19, 2026 1:20pm ET $31.23 773 $24,137.47 $24,156.06 $-18.78
(-0.1%)
TREND_BREAK
3.8h held
12 🟢 BUY Feb 25, 2026 9:35am ET $32.04 753 $24,126.12
🔴 SELL Feb 26, 2026 9:30am ET $33.07 753 $24,901.71 $24,931.65 +$775.59
(+3.2%)
TREND_BREAK
23.9h held
13 🟢 BUY Feb 27, 2026 10:10am ET $32.93 757 $24,928.01
🔴 SELL Feb 27, 2026 11:45am ET $32.22 757 $24,390.62 $24,394.26 $-537.39
(-2.2%)
TREND_BREAK
1.6h held
14 🟢 BUY Mar 4, 2026 11:00am ET $32.08 760 $24,377.00
🔴 SELL Mar 4, 2026 3:25pm ET $32.42 760 $24,639.20 $24,656.46 +$262.20
(+1.1%)
TREND_BREAK
4.4h held
15 🟢 BUY Mar 16, 2026 9:30am ET $31.50 782 $24,633.00
🔴 SELL Mar 17, 2026 11:25am ET $32.08 782 $25,082.65 $25,106.11 +$449.65
(+1.8%)
TREND_BREAK
1.1d held
16 🟢 BUY Mar 23, 2026 11:10am ET $21.77 1,153 $25,099.20
🔴 SELL Mar 23, 2026 3:25pm ET $21.73 1,153 $25,057.57 $25,064.49 $-41.62
(-0.2%)
TREND_BREAK
4.3h held
17 🟢 BUY Mar 25, 2026 9:35am ET $23.06 1,086 $25,043.16
🔴 SELL Mar 25, 2026 1:45pm ET $23.77 1,086 $25,819.65 $25,840.98 +$776.49
(+3.1%)
TREND_BREAK
4.2h held
18 🟢 BUY Mar 31, 2026 12:45pm ET $22.14 1,167 $25,837.38
🔴 SELL Apr 1, 2026 11:30am ET $22.75 1,167 $26,555.08 $26,558.68 +$717.70
(+2.8%)
TREND_BREAK
22.8h held
19 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $24.03 1,105 $26,553.15
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 2:35pm ET $23.36 1,105 $25,812.80 $25,818.33 $-740.35
(-2.8%)
TREND_BREAK
5.1h held
20 🟢 BUY Apr 10, 2026 9:45am ET $24.22 1,065 $25,794.30
🔴 SELL Apr 10, 2026 2:50pm ET $25.07 1,065 $26,699.44 $26,723.47 +$905.14
(+3.5%)
TREND_BREAK
5.1h held
21 🟢 BUY Apr 14, 2026 9:30am ET $27.00 989 $26,703.00
🔴 SELL Apr 14, 2026 1:50pm ET $27.42 989 $27,113.44 $27,133.91 +$410.44
(+1.5%)
TREND_BREAK
4.3h held
22 🟢 BUY Apr 21, 2026 9:55am ET $29.63 915 $27,111.45
🔴 SELL Apr 21, 2026 12:30pm ET $29.28 915 $26,795.77 $26,818.24 $-315.67
(-1.2%)
TREND_BREAK
2.6h held
23 🟢 BUY Apr 24, 2026 9:40am ET $27.98 958 $26,804.84
🔴 SELL Apr 24, 2026 3:40pm ET $28.86 958 $27,647.98 $27,661.38 +$843.14
(+3.1%)
TREND_BREAK
6h held
24 🟢 BUY May 1, 2026 9:45am ET $28.23 979 $27,637.07
🔴 SELL May 1, 2026 12:10pm ET $27.73 979 $27,147.57 $27,171.88 $-489.50
(-1.8%)
TREND_BREAK
2.4h held
25 🟢 BUY May 6, 2026 9:30am ET $31.36 866 $27,157.76
🔴 SELL May 7, 2026 12:00pm ET $34.38 866 $29,773.95 $29,788.07 +$2,616.19
(+9.6%)
TREND_BREAK
1.1d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $29,788.07
Net Profit/Loss: +$19,788.07
Total Return: +197.88%
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