Compendium › Trent Follower › XLE
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
XLE
Alpaca Tradeable

Trent Follower's Analysis

Last 6 Months: 2025-11-06 to present • 4 trades in period

-6.58%
Last 6 Months Return
$9,059.27
Current Value
0%
Win Rate
$9,697.56
Period Start
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PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Signals generated 2026-05-06 10:08:24

Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
70 neutral
20d Trend
+11.0%
5d Trend
+2.0%
EMA20 Dist
+4.4%
ATR%
2.1%
Range Pos
76%
Bounce Ratio
3.3×
Green/Red 10d
8/2
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored Mar 6, 2026

13
Lifetime
Confidence: 16%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
62.6/35
Total Return
16.6/25
Win Rate
2.6/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
0.8/10
Raw Quality 76.8/100
× Confidence 0.16 = 12.6

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (16%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
13,512
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-11-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
137 days
Data Gaps
None (6 market holidays)

Market Closed (6 days)

2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$9,697.56
Current Value
$9,059.27
Period P&L
$-638.29
Max Drawdown
-5.4%
Sharpe Ratio
-1.93

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
4
Winners / Losers
0 / 4
Best Trade
-0.37%
Worst Trade
-2.80%
Avg Trade Return
-1.68%
Avg Hold Time
3.4h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$75,616.59
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-638.29
Net P&L (after fees)
$-638.29
Gross Return
-6.58%
Net Return (after fees)
-6.58%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 XLE Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 137 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 4 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Trent Follower had $9,697.56 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jan 5, 2026 9:30am ET $47.09 205 $9,652.43 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 5, 2026 3:40pm ET $46.91 205 $9,616.55 $9,661.68 $-35.88
(-0.4%) 		TREND_BREAK
6.2h held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 29, 2026 9:35am ET $51.61 187 $9,650.14 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 29, 2026 1:00pm ET $50.78 187 $9,495.86 $9,507.41 $-154.27
(-1.6%) 		TREND_BREAK
3.4h held
3 🟢 BUY Mar 2, 2026 9:30am ET $57.61 165 $9,505.65 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 2, 2026 12:25pm ET $56.47 165 $9,318.37 $9,320.13 $-187.28
(-2.0%) 		TREND_BREAK
2.9h held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 2, 2026 9:40am ET $60.91 153 $9,319.23 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 2, 2026 10:50am ET $59.21 153 $9,058.37 $9,059.27 $-260.86
(-2.8%) 		TREND_BREAK
1.2h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $9,059.27
Net Profit/Loss: $-940.73
Total Return: -9.41%
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