Compendium › Trent Follower › VXX
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
VXX
Alpaca Tradeable

Trent Follower's Analysis

Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 22 trades in period

-14.41%
Year to Date Return
$9,206.89
Current Value
36%
Win Rate
$10,756.62
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Signals generated 2026-05-06 05:25:29

Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
62.8 neutral
20d Trend
+12.6%
5d Trend
+8.3%
EMA20 Dist
+8.3%
ATR%
4.8%
Range Pos
29%
Bounce Ratio
1.8×
Green/Red 10d
7/3
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 5, 2026

4
Lifetime
Confidence: 97%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.8/10
Raw Quality 3.8/100
× Confidence 0.97 = 3.7

30-Day Momentum

0
-5.3%
30d Return
0%
Win Rate
3
Trades
0.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 0.0 Conf: 0.61×
Cooling (-4 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (97%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
8,729
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
91 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)

Market Closed (4 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$10,756.62
Current Value
$9,206.89
Period P&L
$-1,549.76
Max Drawdown
-29.8%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.23

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
22
Winners / Losers
8 / 14
Best Trade
+7.11%
Worst Trade
-5.08%
Avg Trade Return
-0.66%
Avg Hold Time
11.6h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$444,210.49
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,549.76
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,549.76
Gross Return
-14.41%
Net Return (after fees)
-14.41%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 VXX Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 91 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 22 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Trent Follower had $10,756.62 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jan 14, 2026 9:35am ET $27.31 393 $10,733.11 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 14, 2026 1:25pm ET $27.50 393 $10,805.54 $10,829.07 +$72.43
(+0.7%) 		TREND_BREAK
3.8h held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET $28.04 386 $10,823.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 21, 2026 9:30am ET $28.29 386 $10,919.94 $10,925.57 +$96.50
(+0.9%) 		TREND_BREAK
1d held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 29, 2026 9:35am ET $27.79 393 $10,920.02 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 29, 2026 12:10pm ET $27.55 393 $10,827.15 $10,832.71 $-92.87
(-0.8%) 		TREND_BREAK
2.6h held
4 🟢 BUY Feb 3, 2026 12:10pm ET $27.45 394 $10,815.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 3, 2026 3:10pm ET $27.53 394 $10,846.82 $10,864.23 +$31.52
(+0.3%) 		TREND_BREAK
3h held
5 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 10:05am ET $29.13 372 $10,836.36 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 11:45am ET $28.49 372 $10,598.28 $10,626.15 $-238.08
(-2.2%) 		TREND_BREAK
1.7h held
6 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 9:30am ET $29.48 360 $10,612.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 17, 2026 11:15am ET $28.98 360 $10,431.00 $10,444.35 $-181.80
(-1.7%) 		TREND_BREAK
1.8h held
7 🟢 BUY Feb 19, 2026 9:30am ET $29.01 359 $10,416.38 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 19, 2026 2:15pm ET $29.10 359 $10,446.33 $10,474.29 +$29.94
(+0.3%) 		TREND_BREAK
4.8h held
8 🟢 BUY Feb 23, 2026 11:05am ET $29.44 355 $10,452.97 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 23, 2026 1:15pm ET $28.92 355 $10,267.31 $10,288.63 $-185.66
(-1.8%) 		TREND_BREAK
2.2h held
9 🟢 BUY Feb 26, 2026 10:25am ET $28.69 358 $10,271.02 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 26, 2026 1:35pm ET $28.21 358 $10,099.18 $10,116.79 $-171.84
(-1.7%) 		TREND_BREAK
3.2h held
10 🟢 BUY Mar 2, 2026 9:30am ET $30.60 330 $10,098.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 2, 2026 11:10am ET $29.20 330 $9,636.00 $9,654.79 $-462.00
(-4.6%) 		TREND_BREAK
1.7h held
11 🟢 BUY Mar 3, 2026 11:10am ET $32.44 297 $9,634.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 3, 2026 12:20pm ET $31.30 297 $9,294.62 $9,314.73 $-340.06
(-3.5%) 		TREND_BREAK
1.2h held
12 🟢 BUY Mar 5, 2026 9:30am ET $30.40 306 $9,302.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 5, 2026 3:10pm ET $31.82 306 $9,736.92 $9,749.25 +$434.52
(+4.7%) 		TREND_BREAK
5.7h held
13 🟢 BUY Mar 6, 2026 3:35pm ET $35.10 277 $9,722.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 9, 2026 11:20am ET $35.04 277 $9,707.46 $9,734.01 $-15.24
(-0.2%) 		TREND_BREAK
2.8d held
14 🟢 BUY Mar 10, 2026 2:20pm ET $32.49 299 $9,714.51 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 11, 2026 12:55pm ET $33.12 299 $9,901.39 $9,920.89 +$186.88
(+1.9%) 		TREND_BREAK
22.6h held
15 🟢 BUY Mar 18, 2026 9:30am ET $32.92 301 $9,910.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 18, 2026 1:55pm ET $33.96 301 $10,221.96 $10,232.73 +$311.84
(+3.1%) 		TREND_BREAK
4.4h held
16 🟢 BUY Mar 20, 2026 10:25am ET $35.46 288 $10,212.11 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 20, 2026 12:05pm ET $34.43 288 $9,915.84 $9,936.46 $-296.27
(-2.9%) 		TREND_BREAK
1.7h held
17 🟢 BUY Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET $35.39 280 $9,909.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 24, 2026 10:10am ET $34.08 280 $9,541.00 $9,568.26 $-368.20
(-3.7%) 		TREND_BREAK
40m held
18 🟢 BUY Mar 26, 2026 9:40am ET $35.51 269 $9,550.85 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 30, 2026 9:30am ET $38.03 269 $10,230.07 $10,247.48 +$679.22
(+7.1%) 		TREND_BREAK
4d held
19 🟢 BUY Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET $36.83 278 $10,238.74 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 2, 2026 10:40am ET $34.96 278 $9,718.88 $9,727.62 $-519.86
(-5.1%) 		TREND_BREAK
1.2h held
20 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2026 9:50am ET $35.25 275 $9,693.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 7, 2026 12:50pm ET $35.17 275 $9,671.75 $9,705.62 $-22.00
(-0.2%) 		TREND_BREAK
3h held
21 🟢 BUY Apr 23, 2026 1:45pm ET $30.85 314 $9,688.47 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 23, 2026 2:10pm ET $29.71 314 $9,328.94 $9,346.09 $-359.53
(-3.7%) 		TREND_BREAK
25m held
22 🟢 BUY May 4, 2026 12:10pm ET $29.14 320 $9,323.20 — — —
🔴 SELL May 4, 2026 3:10pm ET $28.70 320 $9,184.00 $9,206.89 $-139.20
(-1.5%) 		TREND_BREAK
3h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $9,206.89
Net Profit/Loss: $-793.11
Total Return: -7.93%
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