ARKK Trent Follower's Analysis
2024-01-02 00:00:00+00 to 2026-05-05 19:55:00+00 • 41 trades executed
-9.54%
2 Years Return
$8,572.05
Current Value
53%
Win Rate
$9,475.71
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
19.1 oversold
20d Trend
-20.9%
5d Trend
-12.4%
EMA20 Dist
-13.6%
ATR%
4.1%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.5×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 5, 2026
6
Lifetime
Confidence: 80%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
2.4/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.6/10
Raw Quality
6.9/100
× Confidence 0.80
= 5.5
30-Day Momentum
0
-2.9%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
3
Trades
0.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 0.0
Conf: 0.61×
Cooling (-6 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (80%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
60,742
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-05-06 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
532 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)
Market Closed (21 days)
2024-05-27 — Memorial Day, 2024-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2024-07-04 — Independence Day, 2024-09-02 — Labor Day, 2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary
Starting Capital
$9,475.71
Current Value
$8,572.05
Total P&L
$-903.66
Max Drawdown
-18.6%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.14
Trade Statistics
Total Trades
34
Winners / Losers
18 /
16
Best Trade
+4.59%
Worst Trade
-5.65%
Avg Trade Return
-0.27%
Avg Hold Time
5.8h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$611,824.39
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-903.66
Net P&L (after fees)
$-903.66
Gross Return
-9.54%
Net Return (after fees)
-9.54%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 ARKK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 532 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Complete Trade History
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Trent Follower had $9,475.71 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | May 13, 2024 9:50am ET | $44.50 | 212 | $9,432.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 13, 2024 1:00pm ET | $44.15 | 212 | $9,359.80 | $9,402.57 |
$-73.14 (-0.8%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.2h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 3, 2024 9:40am ET | $43.40 | 216 | $9,374.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 3, 2024 12:15pm ET | $42.85 | 216 | $9,255.60 | $9,283.77 |
$-118.80 (-1.3%) |
TREND_BREAK
2.6h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 12, 2024 9:30am ET | $45.47 | 204 | $9,275.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 12, 2024 2:00pm ET | $45.64 | 204 | $9,310.56 | $9,318.45 |
+$34.68 (+0.4%) |
TREND_BREAK
4.5h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 11, 2024 10:00am ET | $47.44 | 196 | $9,298.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 11, 2024 11:35am ET | $46.29 | 196 | $9,072.84 | $9,092.95 |
$-225.50 (-2.4%) |
TREND_BREAK
1.6h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 15, 2024 9:35am ET | $43.17 | 210 | $9,065.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 15, 2024 3:10pm ET | $43.82 | 210 | $9,201.15 | $9,228.40 |
+$135.45 (+1.5%) |
TREND_BREAK
5.6h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 6, 2024 9:30am ET | $50.78 | 181 | $9,191.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 7, 2024 1:15pm ET | $52.63 | 181 | $9,525.13 | $9,562.34 |
+$333.95 (+3.6%) |
TREND_BREAK
1.2d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 11, 2024 9:30am ET | $56.54 | 169 | $9,555.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 11, 2024 1:15pm ET | $57.17 | 169 | $9,661.90 | $9,668.98 |
+$106.64 (+1.1%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.8h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2025 9:30am ET | $61.10 | 158 | $9,653.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 6, 2025 1:45pm ET | $61.40 | 158 | $9,700.41 | $9,715.59 |
+$46.61 (+0.5%) |
TREND_BREAK
4.3h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 14, 2025 9:30am ET | $58.00 | 167 | $9,686.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2025 11:35am ET | $56.76 | 167 | $9,478.92 | $9,508.51 |
$-207.08 (-2.1%) |
TREND_BREAK
2.1h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 14, 2025 9:30am ET | $66.49 | 143 | $9,508.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 14, 2025 1:55pm ET | $66.53 | 143 | $9,513.79 | $9,514.23 |
+$5.72 (+0.1%) |
TREND_BREAK
4.4h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2025 9:30am ET | $56.96 | 167 | $9,512.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2025 12:45pm ET | $55.67 | 167 | $9,296.17 | $9,298.08 |
$-216.15 (-2.3%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.3h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2025 1:55pm ET | $53.35 | 174 | $9,282.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 5, 2025 9:35am ET | $52.99 | 174 | $9,220.26 | $9,235.44 |
$-62.64 (-0.7%) |
TREND_BREAK
19.7h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 12, 2025 9:30am ET | $50.05 | 184 | $9,209.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 12, 2025 11:00am ET | $48.64 | 184 | $8,949.76 | $8,976.00 |
$-259.44 (-2.8%) |
TREND_BREAK
1.5h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 14, 2025 9:45am ET | $49.01 | 183 | $8,968.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 14, 2025 1:40pm ET | $48.86 | 183 | $8,941.38 | $8,948.55 |
$-27.45 (-0.3%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.9h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2025 9:30am ET | $53.05 | 168 | $8,912.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2025 2:00pm ET | $53.74 | 168 | $9,028.32 | $9,064.47 |
+$115.92 (+1.3%) |
TREND_BREAK
4.5h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2025 10:10am ET | $43.74 | 207 | $9,054.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2025 10:25am ET | $41.27 | 207 | $8,542.89 | $8,553.18 |
$-511.29 (-5.7%) |
TREND_BREAK
18m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2025 10:25am ET | $44.15 | 193 | $8,520.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2025 11:25am ET | $42.95 | 193 | $8,289.35 | $8,321.58 |
$-231.60 (-2.7%) |
TREND_BREAK
1h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2025 1:15pm ET | $42.95 | 193 | $8,289.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2025 9:40am ET | $44.92 | 193 | $8,669.56 | $8,701.79 |
+$380.21 (+4.6%) |
TREND_BREAK
20.4h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2025 9:30am ET | $47.00 | 185 | $8,695.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2025 11:25am ET | $46.09 | 185 | $8,526.65 | $8,533.44 |
$-168.35 (-1.9%) |
TREND_BREAK
1.9h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 22, 2025 9:35am ET | $45.48 | 187 | $8,504.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 22, 2025 1:20pm ET | $45.77 | 187 | $8,558.99 | $8,587.49 |
+$54.04 (+0.6%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.8h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | May 8, 2025 11:40am ET | $51.69 | 166 | $8,579.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 8, 2025 3:45pm ET | $51.81 | 166 | $8,599.63 | $8,607.41 |
+$19.92 (+0.2%) |
TREND_BREAK
4.1h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | May 12, 2025 9:30am ET | $54.14 | 158 | $8,553.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 12, 2025 2:45pm ET | $54.41 | 158 | $8,596.78 | $8,650.64 |
+$43.23 (+0.5%) |
TREND_BREAK
5.3h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 6, 2025 9:45am ET | $59.49 | 145 | $8,626.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 6, 2025 3:30pm ET | $61.25 | 145 | $8,880.53 | $8,905.11 |
+$254.47 (+3.0%) |
TREND_BREAK
5.8h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 16, 2025 9:35am ET | $64.16 | 138 | $8,854.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 16, 2025 2:35pm ET | $64.89 | 138 | $8,954.13 | $9,005.16 |
+$100.05 (+1.1%) |
TREND_BREAK
5h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 22, 2025 10:05am ET | $76.11 | 118 | $8,980.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 22, 2025 2:00pm ET | $76.60 | 118 | $9,038.80 | $9,062.98 |
+$57.82 (+0.6%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.9h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 20, 2025 9:40am ET | $89.18 | 101 | $9,007.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 20, 2025 2:25pm ET | $89.86 | 101 | $9,075.86 | $9,131.66 |
+$68.68 (+0.8%) |
TREND_BREAK
4.8h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 10, 2025 9:30am ET | $83.24 | 109 | $9,072.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 10, 2025 1:55pm ET | $82.81 | 109 | $9,026.29 | $9,085.12 |
$-46.54 (-0.5%) |
TREND_BREAK
4.4h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 20, 2025 9:30am ET | $76.78 | 118 | $9,060.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 20, 2025 11:15am ET | $75.12 | 118 | $8,864.16 | $8,889.24 |
$-195.88 (-2.2%) |
TREND_BREAK
1.8h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 9:40am ET | $80.82 | 109 | $8,809.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 6, 2026 10:50am ET | $81.40 | 109 | $8,872.60 | $8,952.46 |
+$63.22 (+0.7%) |
TREND_BREAK
1.1d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 11:05am ET | $69.56 | 128 | $8,903.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 2:55pm ET | $69.96 | 128 | $8,954.88 | $9,003.66 |
+$51.20 (+0.6%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.8h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 9:40am ET | $71.30 | 126 | $8,983.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 11:20am ET | $69.89 | 126 | $8,806.77 | $8,826.63 |
$-177.03 (-2.0%) |
TREND_BREAK
1.7h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $72.92 | 121 | $8,823.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 1:15pm ET | $70.87 | 121 | $8,575.27 | $8,578.43 |
$-248.20 (-2.8%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.8h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 9:35am ET | $74.29 | 115 | $8,543.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 2:00pm ET | $74.68 | 115 | $8,587.63 | $8,622.34 |
+$43.91 (+0.5%) |
TREND_BREAK
4.4h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 10:35am ET | $80.13 | 107 | $8,573.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 1:20pm ET | $79.66 | 107 | $8,523.62 | $8,572.05 |
$-50.29 (-0.6%) |
TREND_BREAK
2.8h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$8,572.05
Net Profit/Loss:
$-1,427.95
Total Return:
-14.28%