USO Trent Follower's Analysis
2024-01-02 00:00:00+00 to 2026-05-05 19:55:00+00 • 30 trades executed
-15.72%
2 Years Return
$8,244.74
Current Value
31%
Win Rate
$9,782.50
Period Start
PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
55.8 neutral
20d Trend
+3.7%
5d Trend
-4.0%
EMA20 Dist
+1.4%
ATR%
3.2%
Range Pos
71%
Bounce Ratio
1.6×
Green/Red 10d
9/1
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 5, 2026
2
Lifetime
Confidence: 79%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
2.5/10
Raw Quality
2.5/100
× Confidence 0.79
= 2.0
30-Day Momentum
2
-4.8%
30d Return
20%
Win Rate
5
Trades
0.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 2.9
Conf: 0.70×
Steady (+0 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (79%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
67,612
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-05-06 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
530 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)
Market Closed (21 days)
2024-05-27 — Memorial Day, 2024-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2024-07-04 — Independence Day, 2024-09-02 — Labor Day, 2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary
Starting Capital
$9,782.50
Current Value
$8,244.74
Total P&L
$-1,537.76
Max Drawdown
-9.5%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.35
Trade Statistics
Total Trades
29
Winners / Losers
9 /
20
Best Trade
+2.98%
Worst Trade
-4.58%
Avg Trade Return
-0.58%
Avg Hold Time
10.3h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$524,452.02
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,537.76
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,537.76
Gross Return
-15.72%
Net Return (after fees)
-15.72%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 USO Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 530 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Complete Trade History
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Trent Follower had $9,782.50 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 26, 2024 9:30am ET | $78.12 | 125 | $9,765.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 26, 2024 1:35pm ET | $77.88 | 125 | $9,735.00 | $9,752.50 |
$-30.00 (-0.3%) |
TREND_BREAK
4.1h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 1, 2024 11:15am ET | $72.95 | 133 | $9,702.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 1, 2024 1:30pm ET | $72.21 | 133 | $9,603.93 | $9,654.08 |
$-98.42 (-1.0%) |
TREND_BREAK
2.3h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 3, 2024 10:10am ET | $75.37 | 128 | $9,647.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 4, 2024 2:20pm ET | $76.22 | 128 | $9,756.16 | $9,762.88 |
+$108.80 (+1.1%) |
TREND_BREAK
1.2d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 10, 2025 9:30am ET | $81.72 | 119 | $9,724.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 10, 2025 1:25pm ET | $80.14 | 119 | $9,536.66 | $9,574.86 |
$-188.02 (-1.9%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.9h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2025 1:20pm ET | $65.17 | 146 | $9,514.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2025 9:30am ET | $64.59 | 146 | $9,430.14 | $9,490.18 |
$-84.68 (-0.9%) |
TREND_BREAK
20.2h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | May 6, 2025 9:30am ET | $64.76 | 146 | $9,454.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2025 1:00pm ET | $64.61 | 146 | $9,433.06 | $9,468.28 |
$-21.90 (-0.2%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.5h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | May 12, 2025 9:30am ET | $69.16 | 136 | $9,405.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 12, 2025 1:00pm ET | $68.10 | 136 | $9,261.60 | $9,324.12 |
$-144.16 (-1.5%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.5h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2025 9:30am ET | $69.64 | 133 | $9,262.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 2, 2025 1:35pm ET | $69.36 | 133 | $9,224.88 | $9,286.88 |
$-37.24 (-0.4%) |
TREND_BREAK
4.1h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 13, 2025 9:30am ET | $79.99 | 116 | $9,278.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 16, 2025 9:30am ET | $79.15 | 116 | $9,180.98 | $9,189.02 |
$-97.86 (-1.1%) |
TREND_BREAK
3d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 17, 2025 9:50am ET | $81.29 | 113 | $9,185.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 18, 2025 10:05am ET | $81.76 | 113 | $9,238.88 | $9,242.13 |
+$53.11 (+0.6%) |
TREND_BREAK
1d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 23, 2025 9:30am ET | $73.10 | 126 | $9,210.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 23, 2025 1:50pm ET | $73.34 | 126 | $9,240.21 | $9,271.74 |
+$29.61 (+0.3%) |
TREND_BREAK
4.3h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 9:45am ET | $73.80 | 125 | $9,225.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2026 12:50pm ET | $73.15 | 125 | $9,143.75 | $9,190.49 |
$-81.25 (-0.9%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.1h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $73.91 | 124 | $9,164.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 23, 2026 1:45pm ET | $73.70 | 124 | $9,138.80 | $9,164.45 |
$-26.04 (-0.3%) |
TREND_BREAK
4.3h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $80.02 | 114 | $9,122.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 1:20pm ET | $79.01 | 114 | $9,007.14 | $9,049.31 |
$-115.14 (-1.3%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.8h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 18, 2026 9:50am ET | $78.28 | 115 | $9,002.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 19, 2026 1:20pm ET | $80.61 | 115 | $9,270.72 | $9,317.83 |
+$268.52 (+3.0%) |
TREND_BREAK
1.1d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $87.67 | 106 | $9,293.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 1:05pm ET | $85.74 | 106 | $9,088.43 | $9,113.24 |
$-204.59 (-2.2%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.6h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $94.40 | 96 | $9,062.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 5, 2026 3:15pm ET | $96.67 | 96 | $9,280.32 | $9,331.16 |
+$217.92 (+2.4%) |
TREND_BREAK
5.8h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $119.16 | 78 | $9,294.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 11:55am ET | $113.70 | 78 | $8,868.60 | $8,905.28 |
$-425.88 (-4.6%) |
TREND_BREAK
2.4h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 2:25pm ET | $104.46 | 85 | $8,879.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 11, 2026 1:15pm ET | $105.85 | 85 | $8,997.25 | $9,023.43 |
+$118.15 (+1.3%) |
TREND_BREAK
22.8h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 19, 2026 11:50am ET | $124.81 | 72 | $8,986.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 12:50pm ET | $120.66 | 72 | $8,687.43 | $8,724.54 |
$-298.89 (-3.3%) |
TREND_BREAK
1h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $115.22 | 75 | $8,641.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 2:00pm ET | $114.28 | 75 | $8,570.85 | $8,653.68 |
$-70.86 (-0.8%) |
TREND_BREAK
4.5h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $116.71 | 74 | $8,636.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 2:20pm ET | $117.68 | 74 | $8,708.32 | $8,725.46 |
+$71.78 (+0.8%) |
TREND_BREAK
4.8h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 9:35am ET | $127.30 | 68 | $8,656.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 2:15pm ET | $127.97 | 68 | $8,701.97 | $8,771.03 |
+$45.57 (+0.5%) |
TREND_BREAK
4.7h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $138.90 | 63 | $8,750.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 3:10pm ET | $137.21 | 63 | $8,643.92 | $8,664.25 |
$-106.78 (-1.2%) |
TREND_BREAK
5.7h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $127.31 | 68 | $8,657.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 11:50am ET | $126.10 | 68 | $8,574.80 | $8,581.97 |
$-82.28 (-1.0%) |
TREND_BREAK
2.3h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $133.26 | 64 | $8,528.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 12:40pm ET | $129.66 | 64 | $8,298.23 | $8,351.49 |
$-230.48 (-2.7%) |
TREND_BREAK
3.2h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $119.89 | 69 | $8,272.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 20, 2026 2:20pm ET | $121.57 | 69 | $8,388.33 | $8,467.41 |
+$115.92 (+1.4%) |
TREND_BREAK
4.8h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 1:40pm ET | $136.27 | 62 | $8,448.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $132.92 | 62 | $8,241.04 | $8,259.48 |
$-207.93 (-2.5%) |
TREND_BREAK
19.8h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $139.33 | 59 | $8,220.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 2:25pm ET | $139.08 | 59 | $8,205.73 | $8,244.74 |
$-14.74 (-0.2%) |
TREND_BREAK
4.9h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$8,244.74
Net Profit/Loss:
$-1,755.26
Total Return:
-17.55%