Compendium › Victor Panic Surge › SMCI
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
SMCI
Alpaca Tradeable

Victor Panic Surge's Analysis

2024-01-02 09:10:00+00 to 2026-05-05 19:55:00+00 • 7 trades executed

+23.87%
2 Years Return
$12,386.99
Current Value
57%
Win Rate
$10,000.00
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-05-06 05:52:44

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
45.9 neutral
20d Trend
+4.5%
5d Trend
+2.6%
EMA20 Dist
-2.9%
ATR%
6.5%
Range Pos
8%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored Mar 6, 2026

0
Lifetime
Confidence: 0%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
84.0/35
Total Return
45.6/25
Win Rate
54.5/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
97.1/10
Raw Quality 0.0/100
× Confidence 0.00 = 0.0

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (0%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
83,052
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-05-06 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
535 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)

Market Closed (21 days)

2024-05-27 — Memorial Day, 2024-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2024-07-04 — Independence Day, 2024-09-02 — Labor Day, 2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary

Starting Capital
$10,000.00
Current Value
$12,386.99
Total P&L
$2,386.99
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.47

Trade Statistics

Total Trades
7
Winners / Losers
4 / 3
Best Trade
+9.92%
Worst Trade
-5.92%
Avg Trade Return
+3.36%
Avg Hold Time
1.2d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$157,645.23
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$2,386.99
Net P&L (after fees)
$2,386.99
Gross Return
+23.87%
Net Return (after fees)
+23.87%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 SMCI Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 535 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Complete Trade History

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Victor Panic Surge had $10,000.00 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 5, 2024 9:30am ET $54.98 181 $9,951.02 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 5, 2024 10:00am ET $59.82 181 $10,828.23 $10,877.22 +$877.22
(+8.8%) 		🎯 +5% Target
30m held
2 🟢 BUY Apr 3, 2025 9:30am ET $32.25 337 $10,867.41 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 4, 2025 9:30am ET $30.34 337 $10,224.58 $10,234.39 $-642.83
(-5.9%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
3 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2025 9:30am ET $28.53 358 $10,213.74 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 7, 2025 10:05am ET $31.36 358 $11,226.88 $11,247.53 +$1,013.14
(+9.9%) 		🎯 +5% Target
35m held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2025 3:50pm ET $31.50 357 $11,245.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 9, 2025 1:20pm ET $34.51 357 $12,320.07 $12,322.10 +$1,074.57
(+9.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
21.5h held
5 🟢 BUY Apr 10, 2025 3:50pm ET $33.63 366 $12,306.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 16, 2025 9:30am ET $32.17 366 $11,773.67 $11,789.02 $-533.08
(-4.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
5.7d held
6 🟢 BUY Apr 21, 2025 9:30am ET $30.76 383 $11,782.27 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 21, 2025 10:25am ET $29.46 383 $11,283.18 $11,289.93 $-499.09
(-4.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
55m held
7 🟢 BUY Apr 22, 2025 12:20pm ET $31.03 363 $11,262.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 23, 2025 9:30am ET $34.05 363 $12,359.50 $12,386.99 +$1,097.06
(+9.7%) 		🎯 +5% Target
21.2h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $12,386.99
Net Profit/Loss: +$2,386.99
Total Return: +23.87%
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