Compendium › Victor Volume › TLT
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
TLT
Alpaca Tradeable

Victor Volume's Analysis

Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 4 trades in period

-0.20%
Year to Date Return
$9,853.86
Current Value
50%
Win Rate
$9,873.62
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-05-06 11:21:22

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
49.9 neutral
20d Trend
-0.2%
5d Trend
+0.1%
EMA20 Dist
+0.1%
ATR%
0.7%
Range Pos
20%
Bounce Ratio
2.0×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

7
Lifetime
Confidence: 66%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
5.7/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.2/10
Raw Quality 10.9/100
× Confidence 0.66 = 7.3

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (66%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,225
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
92 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)

Market Closed (4 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$9,873.62
Current Value
$9,853.86
Period P&L
$-19.77
Max Drawdown
-11.8%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.07

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
4
Winners / Losers
2 / 2
Best Trade
+0.97%
Worst Trade
-1.72%
Avg Trade Return
-0.08%
Avg Hold Time
19.2d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$79,105.12
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-19.77
Net P&L (after fees)
$-19.77
Gross Return
-0.20%
Net Return (after fees)
-0.20%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 TLT Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 92 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 4 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Victor Volume had $9,873.62 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Dec 12, 2025 3:50pm ET $87.37 113 $9,872.81 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 2, 2026 3:50pm ET $87.11 113 $9,842.87 $9,857.25 $-29.95
(-0.3%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
21d held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 5, 2026 3:50pm ET $87.48 112 $9,797.78 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 26, 2026 3:50pm ET $88.33 112 $9,892.42 $9,951.89 +$94.64
(+1.0%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
21d held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 27, 2026 3:55pm ET $87.80 113 $9,921.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 10, 2026 12:30pm ET $88.46 113 $9,995.42 $10,025.91 +$74.02
(+0.8%) 		📅 Sim Ended
13.9d held
4 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 2:50pm ET $89.89 111 $9,977.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 10, 2026 3:50pm ET $88.33 111 $9,805.18 $9,853.86 $-172.05
(-1.7%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
21d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $9,853.86
Net Profit/Loss: $-146.14
Total Return: -1.46%
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