Compendium › Wally Whale › AVAXUSD
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
AVAXUSD
Alpaca Tradeable

Wally Whale's Analysis

Last 3 Months: 2026-02-07 to present • 1 trades in period

-0.07%
Last 3 Months Return
$7,993.70
Current Value
0%
Win Rate
$7,959.61
Period Start
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PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-07 12:28:25

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
47
Neutral
VIX
17.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
25.3 oversold
20d Trend
-38.3%
5d Trend
-38.9%
EMA20 Dist
-40.8%
ATR%
15.6%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
1.0×
Green/Red 10d
6/4

Strategy Score Scored May 7, 2026

4
Lifetime
Confidence: 69%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
1.9/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.9/10
Raw Quality 5.8/100
× Confidence 0.69 = 4.0

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (69%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
25,795
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-02-07 → 2026-05-07
Trading Days
90 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$7,959.61
Current Value
$7,993.70
Period P&L
$-5.80
Max Drawdown
-45.2%
Sharpe Ratio
—

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
1
Winners / Losers
0 / 1
Best Trade
+0.43%
Worst Trade
+0.43%
Avg Trade Return
+0.43%
Avg Hold Time
12h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$15,953.31
Estimated Fees
$39.88
Gross P&L
$-5.80
Net P&L (after fees)
$-45.68
Gross Return
-0.07%
Net Return (after fees)
-0.57%

⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker). This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 AVAXUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 90 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 1 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Wally Whale had $7,959.61 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 5, 2026 1:50pm ET $9.34 852 $7,959.61 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 6, 2026 1:50am ET $9.38 852 $7,993.70 $7,993.70 $-5.80
(+0.4%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
12h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $7,993.70
Net Profit/Loss: $-2,006.30
Total Return: -20.06%
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