Compendium › Wally Whale › BTCUSD
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
BTCUSD
Alpaca Tradeable

Wally Whale's Analysis

2024-01-01 00:00:00+00 to 2026-05-07 11:55:00+00 • 5 trades executed

+7.12%
2 Years Return
$10,711.77
Current Value
60%
Win Rate
$10,000.00
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-07 07:57:03

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
47
Neutral
VIX
17.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
19.3 oversold
20d Trend
-26.5%
5d Trend
-29.8%
EMA20 Dist
-27.1%
ATR%
8.2%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Mar 6, 2026

55
Lifetime
Confidence: 11%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
65.7/35
Total Return
45.6/25
Win Rate
63.4/15
Profit Factor
15.0/15
Consistency
97.1/10
Raw Quality 489.3/100
× Confidence 0.11 = 54.8

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (11%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
210,384
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-05-07 → 2026-05-07
Trading Days
731 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary

Starting Capital
$10,000.00
Current Value
$10,711.77
Total P&L
$711.77
Max Drawdown
-3.5%
Sharpe Ratio
0.48

Trade Statistics

Total Trades
5
Winners / Losers
3 / 2
Best Trade
+5.73%
Worst Trade
-3.05%
Avg Trade Return
+1.97%
Avg Hold Time
1.1h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)

Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$103,524.69
Estimated Fees
$258.81
Gross P&L
$711.77
Net P&L (after fees)
$452.96
Gross Return
+7.12%
Net Return (after fees)
+4.53%

⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker). This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 BTCUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 731 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Complete Trade History

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Wally Whale had $10,000.00 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 5, 2024 2:20am ET $49,364.82 0 $10,000.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 5, 2024 3:05am ET $51,858.34 0 $10,505.12 $10,453.86 +$453.86
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
48m held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 5, 2024 6:25am ET $51,283.00 0 $10,453.86 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 5, 2024 9:25am ET $49,736.86 0 $10,138.68 $10,087.20 $-366.66
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3h held
3 🟢 BUY Aug 5, 2024 9:30am ET $51,249.22 0 $10,087.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 5, 2024 10:35am ET $53,888.66 0 $10,606.71 $10,554.98 +$467.78
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.1h held
4 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 7:00pm ET $62,181.96 0 $10,554.98 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 7:10pm ET $60,285.00 0 $10,232.98 $10,181.01 $-373.97
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
12m held
5 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 7:10pm ET $60,285.00 0 $10,181.01 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 7:50pm ET $63,737.88 0 $10,764.14 $10,711.77 +$530.76
(+5.7%) 		🎯 +5% Target
42m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $10,711.77
Net Profit/Loss: +$711.77
Total Return: +7.12%
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