Compendium › Wrecking Ball › LLY
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
LLY
Alpaca Tradeable

Wrecking Ball's Analysis

Last Month: 2026-05-22 to present • 4 trades in period

-4.09%
Last Month Return
$18,415.90
Current Value
50%
Win Rate
$19,201.58
Period Start
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PHASE 3: CAPITULATION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-06-22 10:20:41

Extreme fear + bounces appearing. Mean reversion and reversal strategies have best edge NOW.

Fear & Greed
20
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 1.0
Quiet
RSI(14)
47.7 neutral
20d Trend
-3.6%
5d Trend
+0.1%
EMA20 Dist
-1.1%
ATR%
3.7%
Range Pos
72%
Bounce Ratio
1.5×
Green/Red 10d
5/5

Strategy Score Scored Jun 22, 2026

66
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
35.0/35
Total Return
16.0/25
Win Rate
7.9/15
Profit Factor
2.5/15
Consistency
6.3/10
Raw Quality 67.8/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 66.5

30-Day Momentum

3
-1.0%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
4
Trades
0.9×
Profit Factor
Quality: 5.2 Conf: 0.66×
Declining (-63 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,492
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-05-22 → 2026-06-22
Trading Days
20 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$19,201.58
Current Value
$18,415.90
Period P&L
$-785.68
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.05

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
4
Winners / Losers
2 / 2
Best Trade
+4.17%
Worst Trade
-5.53%
Avg Trade Return
-0.19%
Avg Hold Time
5.4d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$149,630.11
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-785.68
Net P&L (after fees)
$-785.68
Gross Return
-4.09%
Net Return (after fees)
-4.09%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 LLY Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 20 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 4 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Wrecking Ball had $19,201.58 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY May 20, 2026 10:30am ET $1,024.27 18 $18,606.91 — — —
🔴 SELL May 26, 2026 3:55pm ET $1,067.00 18 $19,383.24 $19,383.24 +$776.33
(+4.2%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
2 🟢 BUY May 28, 2026 11:25am ET $1,127.00 17 $19,383.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 2, 2026 3:55pm ET $1,064.63 17 $18,310.54 $18,310.54 $-1,072.70
(-5.5%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Jun 4, 2026 2:05pm ET $1,124.95 16 $18,310.54 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 9, 2026 3:55pm ET $1,143.34 16 $18,609.87 $18,609.87 +$299.33
(+1.6%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Jun 10, 2026 12:00pm ET $1,141.74 16 $18,609.87 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 15, 2026 3:55pm ET $1,129.84 16 $18,415.90 $18,415.90 $-193.97
(-1.0%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $18,415.90
Net Profit/Loss: +$8,415.90
Total Return: +84.16%
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