Compendium › Wrecking Ball › LLY
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
LLY
Alpaca Tradeable

Wrecking Ball's Analysis

Last Month: 2026-04-06 to present • 4 trades in period

-5.98%
Last Month Return
$17,778.60
Current Value
25%
Win Rate
$18,908.60
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 11:21:43

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
47.7 neutral
20d Trend
-3.6%
5d Trend
+0.1%
EMA20 Dist
-1.1%
ATR%
3.7%
Range Pos
72%
Bounce Ratio
1.5×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

66
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
35.0/35
Total Return
15.8/25
Win Rate
7.7/15
Profit Factor
2.4/15
Consistency
6.4/10
Raw Quality 67.3/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 66.0

30-Day Momentum

1
-6.0%
30d Return
25%
Win Rate
4
Trades
0.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 1.4 Conf: 0.66×
Declining (-65 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,739
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-04-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
23 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$18,908.60
Current Value
$17,778.60
Period P&L
$-1,130.00
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.46

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
4
Winners / Losers
1 / 3
Best Trade
+3.09%
Worst Trade
-5.33%
Avg Trade Return
-1.48%
Avg Hold Time
4.8d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$150,895.57
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,130.00
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,130.00
Gross Return
-5.98%
Net Return (after fees)
-5.98%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 LLY Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 23 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 4 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Wrecking Ball had $18,908.60 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Apr 6, 2026 9:35am ET $926.68 20 $18,908.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 9, 2026 3:55pm ET $955.28 20 $19,492.07 $19,492.07 +$583.47
(+3.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Apr 10, 2026 9:35am ET $939.69 21 $19,492.07 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 15, 2026 3:55pm ET $907.93 21 $18,833.27 $18,833.27 $-658.80
(-3.4%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Apr 16, 2026 10:40am ET $906.58 21 $18,833.27 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 21, 2026 3:55pm ET $903.96 21 $18,778.84 $18,778.84 $-54.43
(-0.3%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 24, 2026 9:30am ET $900.42 21 $18,778.84 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 29, 2026 3:55pm ET $852.46 21 $17,778.60 $17,778.60 $-1,000.24
(-5.3%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $17,778.60
Net Profit/Loss: +$7,778.60
Total Return: +77.79%
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