Compendium › Wrecking Ball › XLK
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
XLK
Alpaca Tradeable

Wrecking Ball's Analysis

Last Month: 2026-05-22 to present • 4 trades in period

-2.38%
Last Month Return
$22,229.78
Current Value
75%
Win Rate
$22,772.53
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-06-22 08:00:05

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
20
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 1.0
Quiet
RSI(14)
30.1 neutral
20d Trend
-8.0%
5d Trend
-6.2%
EMA20 Dist
-5.6%
ATR%
2.5%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.7×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Jun 22, 2026

77
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
35.0/35
Total Return
17.4/25
Win Rate
10.1/15
Profit Factor
7.8/15
Consistency
7.0/10
Raw Quality 77.3/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 76.5

30-Day Momentum

10
-2.4%
30d Return
75%
Win Rate
4
Trades
0.9×
Profit Factor
Quality: 14.6 Conf: 0.66×
Declining (-67 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,482
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-05-22 → 2026-06-18
Trading Days
19 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$22,772.53
Current Value
$22,229.78
Period P&L
$-542.75
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.12

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
4
Winners / Losers
3 / 1
Best Trade
+4.32%
Worst Trade
-7.49%
Avg Trade Return
-0.51%
Avg Hold Time
2.2d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$180,544.21
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-542.75
Net P&L (after fees)
$-542.75
Gross Return
-2.38%
Net Return (after fees)
-2.38%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 XLK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 19 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 4 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Wrecking Ball had $22,772.53 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY May 27, 2026 10:30am ET $183.21 124 $22,772.53 — — —
🔴 SELL May 29, 2026 3:55pm ET $191.13 124 $23,756.97 $23,756.97 +$984.44
(+4.3%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 3, 2026 9:45am ET $194.86 122 $23,756.97 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 3:55pm ET $180.26 122 $21,976.96 $21,976.96 $-1,780.01
(-7.5%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Jun 9, 2026 10:30am ET $182.92 120 $21,976.96 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 11, 2026 3:55pm ET $183.42 120 $22,037.02 $22,037.02 +$60.06
(+0.3%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Jun 16, 2026 10:45am ET $189.77 116 $22,037.02 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 18, 2026 3:55pm ET $191.43 116 $22,229.78 $22,229.78 +$192.76
(+0.9%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $22,229.78
Net Profit/Loss: +$12,229.78
Total Return: +122.30%
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