Compendium › Wrecking Ball › ARKK
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
ARKK
Alpaca Tradeable

Wrecking Ball's Analysis

Last Year: 2025-05-06 to present • 5 trades in period

+22.13%
Last Year Return
$16,319.16
Current Value
100%
Win Rate
$13,362.41
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 12:22:49

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
19.1 oversold
20d Trend
-20.9%
5d Trend
-12.4%
EMA20 Dist
-13.6%
ATR%
4.1%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.5×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

51
Lifetime
Confidence: 57%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
35.0/35
Total Return
15.0/25
Win Rate
14.2/15
Profit Factor
15.0/15
Consistency
9.2/10
Raw Quality 88.4/100
× Confidence 0.57 = 50.5

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (57%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Year)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
29,524
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-05-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
265 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)

Market Closed (10 days)

2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Year)

Period Start Capital
$13,362.41
Current Value
$16,319.16
Period P&L
$2,956.75
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
2.04

Trade Statistics (Last Year)

Trades in Period
5
Winners / Losers
5 / 0
Best Trade
+8.06%
Worst Trade
+2.25%
Avg Trade Return
+4.10%
Avg Hold Time
4.8d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$146,759.95
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$2,956.75
Net P&L (after fees)
$2,956.75
Gross Return
+22.13%
Net Return (after fees)
+22.13%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 ARKK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 265 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Year - 5 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Wrecking Ball had $13,362.41 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 1, 2025 9:30am ET $71.79 186 $13,362.41 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 6, 2025 3:55pm ET $74.12 186 $13,796.10 $13,796.10 +$433.69
(+3.2%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Oct 10, 2025 11:30am ET $86.94 159 $13,796.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 15, 2025 3:55pm ET $88.90 159 $14,107.07 $14,107.07 +$310.97
(+2.3%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Nov 7, 2025 9:35am ET $78.08 181 $14,107.07 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 12, 2025 3:55pm ET $81.50 181 $14,724.92 $14,724.92 +$617.85
(+4.4%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 10:10am ET $66.91 220 $14,724.92 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 10, 2026 3:55pm ET $72.30 220 $15,911.10 $15,911.10 +$1,186.18
(+8.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Mar 3, 2026 10:00am ET $70.58 225 $15,911.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 6, 2026 3:55pm ET $72.39 225 $16,319.16 $16,319.16 +$408.06
(+2.6%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $16,319.16
Net Profit/Loss: +$6,319.16
Total Return: +63.19%
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