Compendium › Wrecking Ball › LLY
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
LLY
Alpaca Tradeable

Wrecking Ball's Analysis

Last 6 Months: 2025-11-06 to present • 27 trades in period

-5.81%
Last 6 Months Return
$17,778.60
Current Value
48%
Win Rate
$18,876.18
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 12:21:37

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
47.7 neutral
20d Trend
-3.6%
5d Trend
+0.1%
EMA20 Dist
-1.1%
ATR%
3.7%
Range Pos
72%
Bounce Ratio
1.5×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

66
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
35.0/35
Total Return
15.8/25
Win Rate
7.7/15
Profit Factor
2.4/15
Consistency
6.4/10
Raw Quality 67.3/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 66.0

30-Day Momentum

1
-6.0%
30d Return
25%
Win Rate
4
Trades
0.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 1.4 Conf: 0.66×
Declining (-65 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
12,572
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-11-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
138 days
Data Gaps
None (6 market holidays)

Market Closed (6 days)

2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$18,876.18
Current Value
$17,778.60
Period P&L
$-1,097.58
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.20

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
27
Winners / Losers
13 / 14
Best Trade
+8.55%
Worst Trade
-5.62%
Avg Trade Return
-0.14%
Avg Hold Time
4.4d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,102,453.94
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,097.58
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,097.58
Gross Return
-5.81%
Net Return (after fees)
-5.81%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 LLY Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 138 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 27 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Wrecking Ball had $18,876.18 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Nov 6, 2025 9:40am ET $919.10 21 $18,876.18 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 11, 2025 3:55pm ET $988.73 21 $20,306.22 $20,306.22 +$1,430.04
(+7.6%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Nov 12, 2025 10:55am ET $1,005.15 20 $20,306.22 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 17, 2025 3:55pm ET $1,022.67 20 $20,660.16 $20,660.16 +$353.94
(+1.7%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Nov 20, 2025 11:55am ET $1,042.43 20 $20,660.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 25, 2025 3:55pm ET $1,109.59 20 $21,991.12 $21,991.12 +$1,330.96
(+6.4%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Nov 28, 2025 9:30am ET $1,090.65 20 $21,991.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 3, 2025 3:55pm ET $1,033.27 20 $20,834.24 $20,834.24 $-1,156.88
(-5.3%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Dec 4, 2025 9:45am ET $1,020.80 20 $20,834.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 9, 2025 3:55pm ET $981.86 20 $20,039.49 $20,039.49 $-794.75
(-3.8%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Dec 10, 2025 9:35am ET $978.21 20 $20,039.49 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 15, 2025 3:55pm ET $1,061.88 20 $21,753.65 $21,753.65 +$1,714.16
(+8.6%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Dec 16, 2025 9:40am ET $1,044.06 21 $21,753.65 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 19, 2025 3:55pm ET $1,070.50 21 $22,304.54 $22,304.54 +$550.89
(+2.5%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Dec 22, 2025 10:35am ET $1,067.42 21 $22,304.54 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 26, 2025 3:55pm ET $1,077.51 21 $22,515.48 $22,515.48 +$210.94
(+0.9%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Dec 30, 2025 9:30am ET $1,072.70 21 $22,515.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 5, 2026 3:55pm ET $1,041.44 21 $21,859.35 $21,859.35 $-656.13
(-2.9%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Jan 6, 2026 11:05am ET $1,054.02 21 $21,859.35 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 9, 2026 3:55pm ET $1,063.56 21 $22,057.23 $22,057.23 +$197.88
(+0.9%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
11 🟢 BUY Jan 14, 2026 9:35am ET $1,066.85 21 $22,057.23 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 20, 2026 3:55pm ET $1,041.87 21 $21,540.87 $21,540.87 $-516.36
(-2.3%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
12 🟢 BUY Jan 22, 2026 11:30am ET $1,082.40 20 $21,540.87 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 27, 2026 3:55pm ET $1,038.54 20 $20,668.01 $20,668.01 $-872.86
(-4.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
13 🟢 BUY Jan 28, 2026 9:30am ET $1,019.00 20 $20,668.01 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 2, 2026 3:55pm ET $1,043.09 20 $21,156.62 $21,156.62 +$488.61
(+2.4%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
14 🟢 BUY Feb 3, 2026 11:05am ET $1,034.37 20 $21,156.62 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 6, 2026 3:55pm ET $1,057.89 20 $21,637.69 $21,637.69 +$481.07
(+2.3%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
15 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 10:30am ET $1,064.47 20 $21,637.69 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 12, 2026 3:55pm ET $1,038.95 20 $21,118.94 $21,118.94 $-518.75
(-2.4%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
16 🟢 BUY Feb 12, 2026 3:55pm ET $1,038.95 20 $21,118.94 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 13, 2026 3:55pm ET $1,040.22 20 $21,144.76 $21,144.76 +$25.82
(+0.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
17 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 10:45am ET $1,053.00 20 $21,144.76 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 20, 2026 3:55pm ET $1,010.25 20 $20,286.32 $20,286.32 $-858.44
(-4.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
18 🟢 BUY Feb 24, 2026 9:35am ET $1,028.82 20 $20,286.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 27, 2026 3:55pm ET $1,048.12 20 $20,666.78 $20,666.78 +$380.46
(+1.9%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
19 🟢 BUY Mar 2, 2026 10:25am ET $1,037.38 20 $20,666.78 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 5, 2026 3:55pm ET $981.36 20 $19,550.74 $19,550.74 $-1,116.04
(-5.4%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
20 🟢 BUY Mar 12, 2026 9:45am ET $984.61 20 $19,550.74 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 17, 2026 3:55pm ET $929.24 20 $18,451.39 $18,451.39 $-1,099.35
(-5.6%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
21 🟢 BUY Mar 18, 2026 9:45am ET $913.33 20 $18,451.39 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 23, 2026 3:55pm ET $912.18 20 $18,428.26 $18,428.26 $-23.13
(-0.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
22 🟢 BUY Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET $902.70 20 $18,428.26 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 3:55pm ET $877.55 20 $17,914.93 $17,914.93 $-513.33
(-2.8%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
23 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 2:35pm ET $886.85 20 $17,914.93 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 2, 2026 3:55pm ET $936.04 20 $18,908.60 $18,908.60 +$993.67
(+5.5%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
24 🟢 BUY Apr 6, 2026 9:35am ET $926.68 20 $18,908.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 9, 2026 3:55pm ET $955.28 20 $19,492.07 $19,492.07 +$583.47
(+3.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
25 🟢 BUY Apr 10, 2026 9:35am ET $939.69 21 $19,492.07 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 15, 2026 3:55pm ET $907.93 21 $18,833.27 $18,833.27 $-658.80
(-3.4%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
26 🟢 BUY Apr 16, 2026 10:40am ET $906.58 21 $18,833.27 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 21, 2026 3:55pm ET $903.96 21 $18,778.84 $18,778.84 $-54.43
(-0.3%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
27 🟢 BUY Apr 24, 2026 9:30am ET $900.42 21 $18,778.84 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 29, 2026 3:55pm ET $852.46 21 $17,778.60 $17,778.60 $-1,000.24
(-5.3%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $17,778.60
Net Profit/Loss: +$7,778.60
Total Return: +77.79%
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