Compendium › Wrecking Ball › SPY
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
SPY
Alpaca Tradeable

Wrecking Ball's Analysis

Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 3 trades in period

+3.06%
Year to Date Return
$12,931.14
Current Value
67%
Win Rate
$12,547.65
Period Start
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PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-05-06 12:27:46

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
37.4 neutral
20d Trend
-2.6%
5d Trend
-2.0%
EMA20 Dist
-1.7%
ATR%
1.1%
Range Pos
54%
Bounce Ratio
0.7×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

39
Lifetime
Confidence: 59%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
20.5/35
Total Return
12.3/25
Win Rate
12.3/15
Profit Factor
13.4/15
Consistency
7.3/10
Raw Quality 65.8/100
× Confidence 0.59 = 38.9

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (59%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,459
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
92 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)

Market Closed (4 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$12,547.65
Current Value
$12,931.14
Period P&L
$383.49
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
3.23

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
3
Winners / Losers
2 / 1
Best Trade
+2.25%
Worst Trade
-0.39%
Avg Trade Return
+1.01%
Avg Hold Time
3.9d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$76,835.79
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$383.49
Net P&L (after fees)
$383.49
Gross Return
+3.06%
Net Return (after fees)
+3.06%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 SPY Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 92 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 3 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Wrecking Ball had $12,547.65 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jan 20, 2026 10:05am ET $681.11 18 $12,547.65 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 23, 2026 3:55pm ET $689.19 18 $12,696.41 $12,696.41 +$148.76
(+1.2%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 10:10am ET $676.86 19 $12,696.41 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 10, 2026 3:55pm ET $692.09 19 $12,982.09 $12,982.09 +$285.68
(+2.3%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Mar 3, 2026 9:30am ET $675.20 19 $12,982.09 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 6, 2026 3:55pm ET $672.55 19 $12,931.14 $12,931.14 $-50.95
(-0.4%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $12,931.14
Net Profit/Loss: +$2,931.14
Total Return: +29.31%
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