Compendium › Wrecking Ball › TLT
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
TLT
Alpaca Tradeable

Wrecking Ball's Analysis

to 2026-05-05 19:55:00+00 • 7 trades executed

+3.29%
2 Years Return
$10,209.48
Current Value
75%
Win Rate
$9,884.01
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-05-06 05:48:40

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
49.9 neutral
20d Trend
-0.2%
5d Trend
+0.1%
EMA20 Dist
+0.1%
ATR%
0.7%
Range Pos
20%
Bounce Ratio
2.0×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored Mar 6, 2026

0
Lifetime
Confidence: 0%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
84.0/35
Total Return
45.6/25
Win Rate
54.5/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
69.6/10
Raw Quality 0.0/100
× Confidence 0.00 = 0.0

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (0%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
84,512
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-05-06 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
535 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)

Market Closed (21 days)

2024-05-27 — Memorial Day, 2024-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2024-07-04 — Independence Day, 2024-09-02 — Labor Day, 2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary

Starting Capital
$9,884.01
Current Value
$10,209.48
Total P&L
$325.47
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.48

Trade Statistics

Total Trades
4
Winners / Losers
3 / 1
Best Trade
+3.04%
Worst Trade
-1.66%
Avg Trade Return
+0.83%
Avg Hold Time
2.7d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$80,852.45
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$325.47
Net P&L (after fees)
$325.47
Gross Return
+3.29%
Net Return (after fees)
+3.29%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 TLT Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 535 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Complete Trade History

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Wrecking Ball had $9,884.01 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 7, 2024 9:40am ET $91.48 108 $9,884.01 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 11, 2024 3:55pm ET $91.83 108 $9,922.31 $9,922.31 +$38.30
(+0.4%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Jul 1, 2024 9:30am ET $90.45 110 $9,922.31 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 3, 2024 1:00pm ET $91.84 110 $10,075.35 $10,075.35 +$153.04
(+1.5%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Nov 6, 2024 9:30am ET $89.75 112 $10,075.35 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 8, 2024 3:55pm ET $92.48 112 $10,381.82 $10,381.82 +$306.47
(+3.0%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2025 10:10am ET $90.36 115 $10,381.82 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 9, 2025 3:55pm ET $88.86 115 $10,209.48 $10,209.48 $-172.34
(-1.7%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $10,209.48
Net Profit/Loss: +$209.48
Total Return: +2.09%
Back to Wrecking Ball