Compendium › Yield Stress › TQQQ
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
TQQQ
Alpaca Tradeable

Yield Stress's Analysis

to 2026-05-06 16:20:00+00 • 13 trades executed

+22.97%
2 Years Return
$12,297.02
Current Value
54%
Win Rate
$10,000.00
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 12:26:03

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
31.4 neutral
20d Trend
-11.9%
5d Trend
-13.2%
EMA20 Dist
-11.3%
ATR%
5.7%
Range Pos
9%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

20
Lifetime
Confidence: 47%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
16.1/35
Total Return
11.5/25
Win Rate
5.2/15
Profit Factor
2.0/15
Consistency
7.1/10
Raw Quality 41.9/100
× Confidence 0.47 = 19.5

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (47%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
88,659
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-05-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
536 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)

Market Closed (21 days)

2024-05-27 — Memorial Day, 2024-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2024-07-04 — Independence Day, 2024-09-02 — Labor Day, 2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary

Starting Capital
$10,000.00
Current Value
$12,297.02
Total P&L
$2,297.02
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.24

Trade Statistics

Total Trades
13
Winners / Losers
7 / 6
Best Trade
+19.90%
Worst Trade
-11.24%
Avg Trade Return
+1.92%
Avg Hold Time
3.2d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$306,858.69
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$2,297.02
Net P&L (after fees)
$2,297.02
Gross Return
+22.97%
Net Return (after fees)
+22.97%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 TQQQ Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 536 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Complete Trade History

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Yield Stress had $10,000.00 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2025 3:15pm ET $19.25 519 $10,000.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 10, 2025 3:55pm ET $23.08 519 $11,989.61 $11,989.61 +$1,989.61
(+19.9%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Apr 16, 2025 9:30am ET $23.58 508 $11,989.61 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 21, 2025 3:55pm ET $20.93 508 $10,642.18 $10,642.18 $-1,347.43
(-11.2%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Apr 30, 2025 9:30am ET $25.96 410 $10,642.18 — — —
🔴 SELL May 2, 2025 3:55pm ET $29.73 410 $12,186.84 $12,186.84 +$1,544.66
(+14.5%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
4 🟢 BUY May 6, 2025 9:30am ET $28.20 432 $12,186.84 — — —
🔴 SELL May 8, 2025 3:55pm ET $29.56 432 $12,773.31 $12,773.31 +$586.47
(+4.8%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
5 🟢 BUY May 21, 2025 1:20pm ET $34.58 369 $12,773.31 — — —
🔴 SELL May 23, 2025 3:55pm ET $33.16 369 $12,248.71 $12,248.71 $-524.60
(-4.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Aug 1, 2025 9:30am ET $42.20 290 $12,248.71 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 5, 2025 3:55pm ET $42.82 290 $12,428.69 $12,428.69 +$179.98
(+1.5%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Oct 10, 2025 11:00am ET $52.53 237 $12,428.69 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 14, 2025 3:55pm ET $50.57 237 $11,964.95 $11,964.95 $-463.74
(-3.7%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Oct 15, 2025 1:10pm ET $50.26 238 $11,964.95 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 17, 2025 3:55pm ET $51.99 238 $12,375.68 $12,375.68 +$410.73
(+3.4%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Nov 4, 2025 9:30am ET $56.23 220 $12,375.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 6, 2025 3:55pm ET $53.44 220 $11,760.53 $11,760.53 $-615.15
(-5.0%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Nov 13, 2025 9:40am ET $53.60 219 $11,760.53 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 17, 2025 3:55pm ET $51.03 219 $11,196.59 $11,196.59 $-563.94
(-4.8%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
11 🟢 BUY Nov 20, 2025 11:15am ET $51.31 218 $11,196.59 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 24, 2025 3:55pm ET $51.13 218 $11,157.31 $11,157.31 $-39.28
(-0.4%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
12 🟢 BUY Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET $52.05 214 $11,157.31 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 22, 2026 3:55pm ET $53.91 214 $11,556.44 $11,556.44 +$399.13
(+3.6%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
13 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 9:30am ET $48.63 238 $11,556.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET $51.75 238 $12,297.02 $12,297.02 +$740.58
(+6.4%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $12,297.02
Net Profit/Loss: +$2,297.02
Total Return: +22.97%
Back to Yield Stress