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Professor Mean
8

Professor Mean

The Mathematician

📐 Swing Trader 📅 146 years old (Born 1880)

"Price is a drunk stumbling home. It may wander, but it always returns to the mean."

Impossibly old—a walking artifact from the Victorian era. Bow tie, antique spectacles, chalk dust on his academic robes. His hands shake slightly, but his mind is sharp.

ℹ️ Character descriptions are creative personas representing trading strategy styles. They are not financial advice, promises, or guarantees of performance.

Jan 1, 2026 May 6, 2026 (124d)
⚠️ Crypto has 0.25% trading fees per side — results reflect fee impact

📊 Year to Date Performance: Showing Professor Mean's performance over the year to date across 12 crypto symbols. 🟢 LIVE

$3,039
Avg Value (per symbol)
Started at: $5,401 ($-2,362)
-43.74%
Year to Date ROI
22.3%
Win Rate
2,640
Total Trades

Quick Performance Comparison

Click any period to view detailed stats

-8.7%
1 Month
-51.5%
3 Months
-59.4%
6 Months
-43.7%
YTD
-60.2%
1 Year

Equity Curve (Year to Date)

Combined P&L across all 12 symbols

💰 Trading Activity (Year to Date)

Stock Volume
$0
0 trades
Stock Fees
$0
✓ Commission FREE
Crypto Volume
$5,785,809
2,640 trades
Crypto Fees
$14,465
0.25% of volume

⚙️ Trading Strategy

Trade 2 standard deviation extremes back to mean

When price moves 2 standard deviations from its 20-day average, the move is statistically extreme. Professor Mean profits from the inevitable return to normalcy.

🎯 Best Suited For

Range-bound stocks and ETFs

"Everything reverts to the mean. Everything."

📜 Why This Strategy Works

Markets overreact. Good news pushes prices above fair value; bad news pushes them below. Extremes are by definition unsustainable.

Mathematical Formula

CODE VERIFIED — These formulas are extracted directly from the simulation engine and verified against the source code.
Source: scripts/run-*-simulation.php

📊 Entry Signal

📈 Entry Signal

Z-Score ≤ -2.0 (price is 2+ std devs below mean)
→ BUY at current close price

📉 Exit Rules

• MEAN_REVERSION: Z-Score ≥ 0 (price returned to mean)
• STOP_LOSS: Z-Score ≤ -3.0 OR price ≤ entry × 0.92 (-8%)
• MAX_HOLD: Hold time ≥ 10 days

⚙️ Simulation Parameters

MEAN_PERIOD: 20
ENTRY_STD_DEVS: 2
EXIT_AT_MEAN: 1
STOP_LOSS_STD_DEVS: 3
MAX_HOLD_DAYS: 10

📖 Historical Origin

Origin: Sir Francis Galton's regression to the mean

Sir Francis Galton was a polymath who, in the 1880s, discovered "regression toward mediocrity" while studying hereditary traits. The principle was universal: extreme measurements tend to be followed by less extreme ones.

🏆 Top 10 Performing Symbols (Year to Date)

📉 Worst 5 Performing Symbols (Year to Date)

📊 All Symbol Results

Click on any row to see detailed trade history with equity curve

📅 Year to Date: Jan 1, 2026 May 6, 2026 (124 days)
📖 Understanding Score & Momentum columns
📊 Score — Lifetime Quality Score
Measures how well this strategy+symbol combination has performed across the entire simulation history. Based on return, win rate, drawdown control, profit factor, and trade count. Higher is better.
75+ Elite   60+ Good   40+ Fair   <40 Weak
⚡ Mom — 30-Day Momentum Score
Measures performance over the last 30 days only. Same quality model but calibrated for short-term activity. Captures recent regime shifts that the lifetime score may miss.
75+ Hot   60+ Active   40+ Moderate   <40 Quiet
Spread Indicators — Comparing Mom vs Score reveals regime sensitivity:
🔥 Heating Up — Mom is 20+ points above Score. This symbol is performing significantly better recently than its lifetime average. Could indicate a favorable regime shift.
🧊 Cooling Off — Mom is 20+ points below Score. This symbol is underperforming recently despite a strong lifetime track record. Could indicate an unfavorable regime shift.
No icon = Steady — Scores within ±20 points. Consistent performance.
⚠️ Scores are calculated from simulated backtest data and are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice or predict future performance. Full methodology →
Rank Symbol Score Mom Return YTD Start Final Value Trades Win Rate Fees Net Max DD Avg Hold Refunds Last Refund Action
1 PEPEUSD +0.00% $10,000 $10,000 NO ENTRY - - - -0.0% 0.0h -
2 SHIBUSD +0.00% $10,000 $10,000 NO ENTRY - - - -0.0% 0.0h -
3 DOTUSD -3.15% $10,100 $9,781 104 31% $5,137 -$318 -99.1% 1.0h 5 Feb 6, 2026
4 DOGEUSD -10.35% $4,117 $3,691 21 57% $7,010 -$426 -150.9% 4.0h 1 Jul 30, 2025
5 AVAXUSD -39.62% $10,100 $6,098 203 24% $6,777 -$4,002 -99.0% 1.1h 5 Jan 25, 2026
6 ETHUSD -46.97% $10,099 $5,356 233 24% $7,489 -$4,744 -99.0% 1.0h 5 Jan 22, 2026
7 LTCUSD -68.42% $1,236 $390 355 21% $12,903 -$846 -99.1% 1.0h 4 Oct 10, 2025
8 LINKUSD -70.47% $3,550 $1,048 344 24% $9,935 -$2,501 -99.0% 1.0h 4 Nov 25, 2025
9 BTCUSD -70.64% $1,692 $497 355 14% $10,511 -$1,195 -99.0% 1.0h 4 Oct 30, 2025
10 SOLUSD -71.34% $1,051 $301 330 20% $8,569 -$750 -99.1% 1.0h 4 Oct 27, 2025
11 UNIUSD -71.56% $2,278 $648 362 30% $8,974 -$1,630 -99.1% 1.0h 4 Nov 11, 2025
12 XRPUSD -72.34% $592 $164 333 22% $11,835 -$428 -99.0% 1.2h 3 Sep 14, 2025

👤 Personality

Speaks in equations. Finds human behavior predictable and slightly disappointing. Gets genuinely excited about standard deviations.