Compendium › Marcus Reversal › AMGN
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
AMGN
Alpaca Tradeable

Marcus Reversal's Analysis

Last Month: 2026-04-06 to present • 3 trades in period

-11.72%
Last Month Return
$9,018.44
Current Value
0%
Win Rate
$10,216.22
Period Start
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PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Signals generated 2026-05-06 08:39:48

Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
74.9 overbought
20d Trend
+13.8%
5d Trend
+8.9%
EMA20 Dist
+7.0%
ATR%
3.0%
Range Pos
95%
Bounce Ratio
3.1×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

4
Lifetime
Confidence: 90%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.5/10
Raw Quality 4.5/100
× Confidence 0.90 = 4.0

30-Day Momentum

0
-12.9%
30d Return
0%
Win Rate
3
Trades
0.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 0.0 Conf: 0.61×
Cooling (-4 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (90%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,716
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-04-06 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
22 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$10,216.22
Current Value
$9,018.44
Period P&L
$-1,197.78
Max Drawdown
-28.3%
Sharpe Ratio
-4.46

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
3
Winners / Losers
0 / 3
Best Trade
-3.64%
Worst Trade
-6.03%
Avg Trade Return
-4.60%
Avg Hold Time
13.5d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$57,284.46
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,197.78
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,197.78
Gross Return
-11.72%
Net Return (after fees)
-11.72%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 AMGN Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 22 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 3 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $10,216.22 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 19, 2026 12:20pm ET $350.75 29 $10,171.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 7, 2026 9:30am ET $336.25 29 $9,751.25 $9,938.98 $-420.50
(-4.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
18.9d held
2 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2026 3:10pm ET $348.46 28 $9,756.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET $335.79 28 $9,402.12 $9,584.22 $-354.76
(-3.6%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
20.8d held
3 🟢 BUY Apr 30, 2026 1:35pm ET $347.56 27 $9,384.12 — — —
🔴 SELL May 1, 2026 9:30am ET $326.61 27 $8,818.34 $9,018.44 $-565.78
(-6.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
19.9h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $9,018.44
Net Profit/Loss: $-981.56
Total Return: -9.82%
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