Compendium › Marcus Reversal › BIIB
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
BIIB
Alpaca Tradeable

Marcus Reversal's Analysis

Last Month: 2026-04-06 to present • 3 trades in period

+7.97%
Last Month Return
$6,483.07
Current Value
67%
Win Rate
$6,004.24
Period Start
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PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-05-06 05:22:54

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
62.5 neutral
20d Trend
-0.6%
5d Trend
+4.3%
EMA20 Dist
+4.6%
ATR%
2.6%
Range Pos
93%
Bounce Ratio
2.4×
Green/Red 10d
7/3
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 5, 2026

4
Lifetime
Confidence: 96%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.9/10
Raw Quality 3.9/100
× Confidence 0.96 = 3.8

30-Day Momentum

33
+8.0%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
3
Trades
1.9×
Profit Factor
Quality: 53.7 Conf: 0.61×
Accelerating (+29 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (96%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,710
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-04-06 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
22 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$6,004.24
Current Value
$6,483.07
Period P&L
$478.79
Max Drawdown
-46.7%
Sharpe Ratio
0.67

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
3
Winners / Losers
2 / 1
Best Trade
+5.90%
Worst Trade
-3.02%
Avg Trade Return
+2.73%
Avg Hold Time
6.5d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$36,947.93
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$478.79
Net P&L (after fees)
$478.79
Gross Return
+7.97%
Net Return (after fees)
+7.97%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 BIIB Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 22 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 3 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $6,004.24 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2026 2:45pm ET $173.40 34 $5,895.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 20, 2026 10:20am ET $182.62 34 $6,209.22 $6,317.90 +$313.62
(+5.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
12.8d held
2 🟢 BUY Apr 21, 2026 3:45pm ET $185.57 34 $6,309.38 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 27, 2026 2:40pm ET $179.96 34 $6,118.64 $6,127.16 $-190.74
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6d held
3 🟢 BUY Apr 28, 2026 2:45pm ET $182.71 33 $6,029.59 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 29, 2026 11:15am ET $193.50 33 $6,385.50 $6,483.07 +$355.91
(+5.9%) 		🎯 +5% Target
20.5h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $6,483.07
Net Profit/Loss: $-3,516.93
Total Return: -35.17%
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