Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 11:23:23

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
19.3 oversold
20d Trend
-26.5%
5d Trend
-29.8%
EMA20 Dist
-27.1%
ATR%
8.2%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

5
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.6/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.1/10
Raw Quality 4.7/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 4.7

30-Day Momentum

72
+23.1%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
9
Trades
1.9×
Profit Factor
Quality: 85.8 Conf: 0.84×
Accelerating (+68 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
8,825
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-04-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
31 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$2,968.57
Current Value
$3,779.39
Period P&L
$435.73
Max Drawdown
-78.6%
Sharpe Ratio
0.62

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
9
Winners / Losers
6 / 3
Best Trade
+5.28%
Worst Trade
-3.11%
Avg Trade Return
+2.41%
Avg Hold Time
4.1d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$62,593.74
Estimated Fees
$156.48
Gross P&L
$435.73
Net P&L (after fees)
$279.25
Gross Return
+14.68%
Net Return (after fees)
+9.41%

⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker). This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 BTCUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 31 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 9 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $2,968.57 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 27, 2026 7:05am ET $66,412.50 0 $3,069.63
🔴 SELL Apr 6, 2026 5:20am ET $69,920.30 0 $3,231.76 $3,231.76 +$146.38
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
9.9d held
2 🟢 BUY Apr 6, 2026 7:45am ET $69,652.70 0 $3,231.76
🔴 SELL Apr 10, 2026 11:25am ET $73,286.20 0 $3,400.35 $3,400.35 +$152.01
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.2d held
3 🟢 BUY Apr 10, 2026 12:30pm ET $72,772.80 0 $3,400.35
🔴 SELL Apr 12, 2026 7:35pm ET $70,576.40 0 $3,297.72 $3,297.72 $-119.37
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.3d held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 13, 2026 1:35am ET $70,799.80 0 $3,297.72
🔴 SELL Apr 13, 2026 6:50pm ET $74,352.90 0 $3,463.22 $3,463.22 +$148.59
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
17.3h held
5 🟢 BUY Apr 13, 2026 8:15pm ET $74,349.90 0 $3,463.22
🔴 SELL Apr 17, 2026 12:25pm ET $78,210.90 0 $3,643.07 $3,643.07 +$162.08
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.7d held
6 🟢 BUY Apr 17, 2026 1:25pm ET $77,217.40 0 $3,643.07
🔴 SELL Apr 19, 2026 1:55pm ET $74,815.40 0 $3,529.74 $3,529.75 $-131.26
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
7 🟢 BUY Apr 19, 2026 2:00pm ET $74,824.00 0 $3,529.75
🔴 SELL Apr 22, 2026 9:45am ET $78,632.40 0 $3,709.41 $3,709.41 +$161.56
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held
8 🟢 BUY Apr 22, 2026 12:45pm ET $78,837.20 0 $3,709.41
🔴 SELL Apr 28, 2026 7:15am ET $76,450.00 0 $3,597.09 $3,597.09 $-130.59
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5.8d held
9 🟢 BUY Apr 28, 2026 7:35am ET $76,284.50 0 $3,597.09
🔴 SELL May 3, 2026 10:45pm ET $80,150.50 0 $3,779.39 $3,779.39 +$163.85
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
5.6d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $3,779.39
Net Profit/Loss: $-6,220.61
Total Return: -62.21%
Back to Marcus Reversal