Compendium › Marcus Reversal › COST
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
COST
Alpaca Tradeable

Marcus Reversal's Analysis

Last Month: 2026-04-06 to present • 3 trades in period

+3.68%
Last Month Return
$15,792.10
Current Value
67%
Win Rate
$15,231.72
Period Start
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PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Signals generated 2026-05-06 05:23:26

Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
68.2 neutral
20d Trend
+5.1%
5d Trend
+5.5%
EMA20 Dist
+3.1%
ATR%
1.8%
Range Pos
93%
Bounce Ratio
2.5×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 5, 2026

33
Lifetime
Confidence: 89%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
10.3/35
Total Return
14.7/25
Win Rate
4.1/15
Profit Factor
2.8/15
Consistency
5.4/10
Raw Quality 37.2/100
× Confidence 0.89 = 33.0

30-Day Momentum

28
+6.8%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
3
Trades
1.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 45.8 Conf: 0.61×
Cooling (-5 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (89%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,716
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-04-06 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
22 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$15,231.72
Current Value
$15,792.10
Period P&L
$560.39
Max Drawdown
-19.7%
Sharpe Ratio
0.56

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
3
Winners / Losers
2 / 1
Best Trade
+5.27%
Worst Trade
-3.48%
Avg Trade Return
+2.31%
Avg Hold Time
11.3d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$89,864.10
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$560.39
Net P&L (after fees)
$560.39
Gross Return
+3.68%
Net Return (after fees)
+3.68%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 COST Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 22 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 3 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $15,231.72 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 26, 2026 2:50pm ET $983.00 15 $14,745.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 9, 2026 10:00am ET $1,033.57 15 $15,503.62 $15,551.43 +$758.62
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
13.8d held
2 🟢 BUY Apr 10, 2026 10:00am ET $1,009.13 15 $15,136.95 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 14, 2026 9:30am ET $974.01 15 $14,610.15 $15,024.63 $-526.80
(-3.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4d held
3 🟢 BUY Apr 15, 2026 9:30am ET $970.03 15 $14,550.45 — — —
🔴 SELL May 1, 2026 9:30am ET $1,021.20 15 $15,317.93 $15,792.10 +$767.47
(+5.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
16d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $15,792.10
Net Profit/Loss: +$5,792.10
Total Return: +57.92%
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