Compendium › Marcus Reversal › DIS
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
DIS
Alpaca Tradeable

Marcus Reversal's Analysis

Last Month: 2026-04-06 to present • 3 trades in period

+4.24%
Last Month Return
$11,071.10
Current Value
67%
Win Rate
$10,620.55
Period Start
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PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 05:22:58

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
37.5 neutral
20d Trend
-7.1%
5d Trend
-7.2%
EMA20 Dist
-4.1%
ATR%
3.0%
Range Pos
19%
Bounce Ratio
0.5×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 5, 2026

15
Lifetime
Confidence: 88%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
1.5/35
Total Return
8.9/25
Win Rate
0.5/15
Profit Factor
0.5/15
Consistency
5.4/10
Raw Quality 16.7/100
× Confidence 0.88 = 14.7

30-Day Momentum

30
+7.0%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
3
Trades
1.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 49.1 Conf: 0.61×
Accelerating (+15 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (88%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,716
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-04-06 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
22 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$10,620.55
Current Value
$11,071.10
Period P&L
$450.53
Max Drawdown
-24.9%
Sharpe Ratio
0.62

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
3
Winners / Losers
2 / 1
Best Trade
+5.03%
Worst Trade
-3.00%
Avg Trade Return
+2.35%
Avg Hold Time
6d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$65,493.82
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$450.53
Net P&L (after fees)
$450.53
Gross Return
+4.24%
Net Return (after fees)
+4.24%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 DIS Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 22 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 3 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $10,620.55 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 2:50pm ET $94.14 109 $10,261.26 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 1:00pm ET $98.87 109 $10,776.83 $10,866.91 +$515.57
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
8.9d held
2 🟢 BUY Apr 10, 2026 11:05am ET $99.24 109 $10,817.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 16, 2026 3:40pm ET $104.23 109 $11,361.08 $11,410.83 +$543.92
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
6.2d held
3 🟢 BUY Apr 20, 2026 2:20pm ET $106.68 106 $11,308.61 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 23, 2026 1:10pm ET $103.48 106 $10,968.88 $11,071.10 $-339.73
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $11,071.10
Net Profit/Loss: +$1,071.10
Total Return: +10.71%
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