Compendium › Marcus Reversal › ETHUSD
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
ETHUSD
Alpaca Tradeable

Marcus Reversal's Analysis

Last Month: 2026-04-06 to present • 13 trades in period

-1.19%
Last Month Return
$334.46
Current Value
46%
Win Rate
$268.11
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 12:19:15

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
22.2 oversold
20d Trend
-34.3%
5d Trend
-40.1%
EMA20 Dist
-35.3%
ATR%
13.6%
Range Pos
0%
Bounce Ratio
0.5×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

2
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
2.4/10
Raw Quality 2.4/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 2.4

30-Day Momentum

33
+7.6%
30d Return
46%
Win Rate
13
Trades
1.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 34.9 Conf: 0.95×
Accelerating (+31 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
8,836
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-04-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
31 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$268.11
Current Value
$334.46
Period P&L
$-3.20
Max Drawdown
-98.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.16

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
13
Winners / Losers
6 / 7
Best Trade
+5.30%
Worst Trade
-3.67%
Avg Trade Return
+0.65%
Avg Hold Time
2.4d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$8,549.36
Estimated Fees
$21.37
Gross P&L
$-3.20
Net P&L (after fees)
$-24.58
Gross Return
-1.19%
Net Return (after fees)
-9.17%

⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker). This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 ETHUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 31 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 13 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $268.11 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2026 11:05pm ET $2,072.67 0 $310.82 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 7, 2026 6:35pm ET $2,177.48 0 $326.54 $326.54 +$14.12
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5.8d held
2 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2026 8:35pm ET $2,233.81 0 $326.54 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 9, 2026 9:55am ET $2,162.44 0 $316.11 $316.11 $-12.04
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.6d held
3 🟢 BUY Apr 9, 2026 10:00am ET $2,165.17 0 $316.11 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 11, 2026 2:35pm ET $2,276.04 0 $332.30 $332.30 +$14.57
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2.2d held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 11, 2026 4:35pm ET $2,291.25 0 $332.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 11, 2026 9:50pm ET $2,211.84 0 $320.78 $320.78 $-13.15
(-3.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
5.3h held
5 🟢 BUY Apr 11, 2026 9:55pm ET $2,224.02 0 $320.78 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 13, 2026 6:35pm ET $2,341.86 0 $337.78 $337.78 +$15.35
(+5.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
6 🟢 BUY Apr 13, 2026 8:35pm ET $2,365.11 0 $337.78 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 16, 2026 10:20am ET $2,293.74 0 $327.59 $327.59 $-11.86
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.6d held
7 🟢 BUY Apr 16, 2026 10:25am ET $2,290.37 0 $327.59 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 17, 2026 9:15am ET $2,408.24 0 $344.45 $344.45 +$15.18
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
22.8h held
8 🟢 BUY Apr 17, 2026 1:30pm ET $2,430.10 0 $344.45 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 18, 2026 7:10am ET $2,357.14 0 $334.11 $334.11 $-12.04
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
17.7h held
9 🟢 BUY Apr 18, 2026 7:40am ET $2,345.54 0 $334.11 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 19, 2026 6:00pm ET $2,275.07 0 $324.07 $324.07 $-11.68
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.4d held
10 🟢 BUY Apr 19, 2026 6:05pm ET $2,258.87 0 $324.07 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 21, 2026 11:05pm ET $2,374.48 0 $340.66 $340.66 +$14.92
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2.2d held
11 🟢 BUY Apr 22, 2026 2:55am ET $2,392.75 0 $340.66 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 23, 2026 5:50am ET $2,317.00 0 $329.88 $329.88 $-12.46
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held
12 🟢 BUY Apr 23, 2026 5:55am ET $2,317.05 0 $329.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 29, 2026 2:10pm ET $2,232.05 0 $317.78 $317.78 $-13.72
(-3.7%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6.3d held
13 🟢 BUY Apr 29, 2026 2:30pm ET $2,230.30 0 $317.78 — — —
🔴 SELL May 3, 2026 6:15pm ET $2,347.37 0 $334.46 $334.46 +$15.05
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
4.2d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $334.46
Net Profit/Loss: $-9,665.54
Total Return: -96.66%
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