Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-06-22 12:26:04

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
20
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 1.0
Quiet
RSI(14)
13.3 oversold
20d Trend
-41.6%
5d Trend
-28.6%
EMA20 Dist
-26.6%
ATR%
7.5%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.1×
Green/Red 10d
1/9

Strategy Score Scored Jun 22, 2026

5
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.0/10
Raw Quality 5.0/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 4.9

30-Day Momentum

4
-10.2%
30d Return
29%
Win Rate
7
Trades
0.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 5.7 Conf: 0.78×
Cooling (-0 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,518
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-05-22 → 2026-06-22
Trading Days
20 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$8,224.25
Current Value
$7,744.26
Period P&L
$-479.99
Max Drawdown
-45.6%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.13

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
8
Winners / Losers
3 / 5
Best Trade
+5.25%
Worst Trade
-6.97%
Avg Trade Return
-0.62%
Avg Hold Time
2.4d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$123,225.78
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-479.99
Net P&L (after fees)
$-479.99
Gross Return
-5.84%
Net Return (after fees)
-5.84%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 HOOD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 20 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 8 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $8,224.25 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY May 20, 2026 3:05pm ET $75.47 108 $8,150.76
🔴 SELL May 28, 2026 11:25am ET $79.42 108 $8,576.82 $8,629.79 +$426.06
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
7.8d held
2 🟢 BUY May 29, 2026 1:50pm ET $92.52 93 $8,604.37
🔴 SELL Jun 1, 2026 9:35am ET $86.07 93 $8,004.97 $8,030.40 $-599.39
(-7.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held
3 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 9:35am ET $88.68 90 $7,980.75
🔴 SELL Jun 3, 2026 9:30am ET $85.11 90 $7,659.90 $7,709.55 $-320.85
(-4.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23.9h held
4 🟢 BUY Jun 5, 2026 9:45am ET $84.93 90 $7,643.25
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 12:10pm ET $82.22 90 $7,400.25 $7,466.55 $-243.00
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.4h held
5 🟢 BUY Jun 8, 2026 1:25pm ET $84.03 88 $7,394.63
🔴 SELL Jun 9, 2026 12:00pm ET $81.26 88 $7,150.88 $7,222.80 $-243.75
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
22.6h held
6 🟢 BUY Jun 10, 2026 3:10pm ET $88.00 82 $7,216.01
🔴 SELL Jun 11, 2026 3:15pm ET $92.62 82 $7,594.84 $7,601.63 +$378.83
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
7 🟢 BUY Jun 15, 2026 12:45pm ET $99.35 76 $7,550.60
🔴 SELL Jun 16, 2026 10:50am ET $96.21 76 $7,312.34 $7,363.37 $-238.26
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
22.1h held
8 🟢 BUY Jun 17, 2026 3:45pm ET $105.83 69 $7,302.26
🔴 SELL Jun 22, 2026 9:50am ET $111.35 69 $7,683.15 $7,744.26 +$380.89
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.8d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $7,744.26
Net Profit/Loss: $-2,255.74
Total Return: -22.56%
Back to Marcus Reversal