Compendium › Marcus Reversal › IBM
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
IBM
Alpaca Tradeable

Marcus Reversal's Analysis

Last Month: 2026-04-06 to present • 3 trades in period

-9.28%
Last Month Return
$16,413.38
Current Value
33%
Win Rate
$18,092.67
Period Start
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PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 11:01:46

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
41.6 neutral
20d Trend
-5.4%
5d Trend
-6.3%
EMA20 Dist
-3.9%
ATR%
3.9%
Range Pos
40%
Bounce Ratio
1.2×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

35
Lifetime
Confidence: 90%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
12.7/35
Total Return
15.1/25
Win Rate
3.5/15
Profit Factor
2.3/15
Consistency
5.2/10
Raw Quality 38.7/100
× Confidence 0.90 = 34.9

30-Day Momentum

0
-6.0%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
3
Trades
0.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 0.0 Conf: 0.61×
Declining (-35 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (90%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,735
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-04-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
23 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$18,092.67
Current Value
$16,413.38
Period P&L
$-1,679.31
Max Drawdown
-17.7%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.29

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
3
Winners / Losers
1 / 2
Best Trade
+6.54%
Worst Trade
-8.99%
Avg Trade Return
-1.83%
Avg Hold Time
7.3d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$103,341.35
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,679.31
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,679.31
Gross Return
-9.28%
Net Return (after fees)
-9.28%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 IBM Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 23 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 3 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $18,092.67 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 25, 2026 11:20am ET $238.40 73 $17,403.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 10, 2026 2:10pm ET $231.16 73 $16,874.68 $16,935.64 $-528.88
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
16.1d held
2 🟢 BUY Apr 14, 2026 11:30am ET $239.79 70 $16,784.95 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 17, 2026 9:30am ET $255.46 70 $17,882.20 $18,032.89 +$1,097.25
(+6.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held
3 🟢 BUY Apr 20, 2026 11:00am ET $253.63 71 $18,007.73 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 23, 2026 9:30am ET $230.82 71 $16,388.22 $16,413.38 $-1,619.51
(-9.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $16,413.38
Net Profit/Loss: +$6,413.38
Total Return: +64.13%
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