Compendium › Marcus Reversal › MCD
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
MCD
Alpaca Tradeable

Marcus Reversal's Analysis

Last Month: 2026-04-07 to present • 3 trades in period

-4.96%
Last Month Return
$10,518.30
Current Value
33%
Win Rate
$11,067.13
Period Start
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PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Signals generated 2026-05-07 09:15:23

Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.

Fear & Greed
47
Neutral
VIX
17.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
71.6 overbought
20d Trend
+5.3%
5d Trend
+2.7%
EMA20 Dist
+2.8%
ATR%
1.5%
Range Pos
87%
Bounce Ratio
3.3×
Green/Red 10d
8/2

Strategy Score Scored May 7, 2026

15
Lifetime
Confidence: 86%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
1.4/35
Total Return
6.6/25
Win Rate
3.8/15
Profit Factor
0.4/15
Consistency
4.8/10
Raw Quality 16.9/100
× Confidence 0.86 = 14.6

30-Day Momentum

0
-5.0%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
3
Trades
0.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 0.0 Conf: 0.61×
Declining (-15 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (86%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,716
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-04-07 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
22 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$11,067.13
Current Value
$10,518.30
Period P&L
$-548.83
Max Drawdown
-12.9%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.93

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
3
Winners / Losers
1 / 2
Best Trade
+0.91%
Worst Trade
-3.07%
Avg Trade Return
-1.73%
Avg Hold Time
14.3d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$64,114.38
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-548.83
Net P&L (after fees)
$-548.83
Gross Return
-4.96%
Net Return (after fees)
-4.96%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MCD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 22 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 3 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $11,067.13 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 20, 2026 9:35am ET $309.45 35 $10,830.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 20, 2026 9:30am ET $312.27 35 $10,929.45 $11,174.40 +$98.70
(+0.9%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
31d held
2 🟢 BUY Apr 21, 2026 9:35am ET $303.68 36 $10,932.66 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 27, 2026 11:10am ET $294.46 36 $10,600.74 $10,842.48 $-331.92
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6.1d held
3 🟢 BUY Apr 28, 2026 1:25pm ET $293.68 36 $10,572.48 — — —
🔴 SELL May 4, 2026 12:55pm ET $284.67 36 $10,248.30 $10,518.30 $-324.18
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $10,518.30
Net Profit/Loss: +$518.30
Total Return: +5.18%
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