Compendium › Marcus Reversal › WMT
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
WMT
Alpaca Tradeable

Marcus Reversal's Analysis

Last Month: 2026-04-06 to present • 3 trades in period

+1.75%
Last Month Return
$18,710.31
Current Value
67%
Win Rate
$18,389.16
Period Start
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PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Signals generated 2026-05-06 10:07:49

Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
74 overbought
20d Trend
+6.1%
5d Trend
+7.2%
EMA20 Dist
+5.3%
ATR%
1.8%
Range Pos
94%
Bounce Ratio
3.3×
Green/Red 10d
6/4
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

44
Lifetime
Confidence: 87%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
17.3/35
Total Return
16.2/25
Win Rate
5.8/15
Profit Factor
4.2/15
Consistency
6.8/10
Raw Quality 50.3/100
× Confidence 0.87 = 43.7

30-Day Momentum

29
+6.9%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
3
Trades
1.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 46.9 Conf: 0.61×
Declining (-15 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (87%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,724
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-04-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
23 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$18,389.16
Current Value
$18,710.31
Period P&L
$321.16
Max Drawdown
-17.6%
Sharpe Ratio
0.59

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
3
Winners / Losers
2 / 1
Best Trade
+5.17%
Worst Trade
-3.27%
Avg Trade Return
+2.34%
Avg Hold Time
12.7d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$111,416.03
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$321.16
Net P&L (after fees)
$321.16
Gross Return
+1.75%
Net Return (after fees)
+1.75%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 WMT Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 23 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 3 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $18,389.16 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 20, 2026 10:15am ET $120.00 145 $17,400.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 6, 2026 9:30am ET $126.20 145 $18,299.00 $18,402.20 +$899.00
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
17d held
2 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2026 9:35am ET $125.07 147 $18,386.02 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 23, 2026 9:50am ET $131.47 147 $19,326.09 $19,342.27 +$940.07
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
16d held
3 🟢 BUY Apr 24, 2026 10:10am ET $130.53 148 $19,318.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 29, 2026 9:35am ET $126.26 148 $18,686.48 $18,710.31 $-631.96
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
5d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $18,710.31
Net Profit/Loss: +$8,710.31
Total Return: +87.10%
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