Compendium › Marcus Reversal › XLK
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
XLK
Alpaca Tradeable

Marcus Reversal's Analysis

Last Month: 2026-04-06 to present • 3 trades in period

+15.43%
Last Month Return
$15,058.14
Current Value
100%
Win Rate
$13,045.42
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 05:23:56

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
30.1 neutral
20d Trend
-8.0%
5d Trend
-6.2%
EMA20 Dist
-5.6%
ATR%
2.5%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.7×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 5, 2026

30
Lifetime
Confidence: 88%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
6.9/35
Total Return
14.2/25
Win Rate
3.5/15
Profit Factor
3.1/15
Consistency
6.1/10
Raw Quality 33.8/100
× Confidence 0.88 = 29.8

30-Day Momentum

53
+17.3%
30d Return
100%
Win Rate
3
Trades
10.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 86.0 Conf: 0.61×
Accelerating (+23 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (88%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,716
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-04-06 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
22 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$13,045.42
Current Value
$15,058.14
Period P&L
$2,012.71
Max Drawdown
-25.5%
Sharpe Ratio
9.76

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
3
Winners / Losers
3 / 0
Best Trade
+6.28%
Worst Trade
+5.01%
Avg Trade Return
+5.50%
Avg Hold Time
6.3d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$83,245.28
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$2,012.71
Net P&L (after fees)
$2,012.71
Gross Return
+15.43%
Net Return (after fees)
+15.43%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 XLK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 22 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 3 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $13,045.42 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Apr 2, 2026 12:20pm ET $134.70 95 $12,796.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $143.16 95 $13,600.67 $13,643.45 +$804.17
(+6.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5.9d held
2 🟢 BUY Apr 9, 2026 10:50am ET $140.70 96 $13,507.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 14, 2026 3:50pm ET $147.74 96 $14,183.52 $14,319.77 +$676.32
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5.2d held
3 🟢 BUY Apr 16, 2026 2:30pm ET $151.16 94 $14,209.51 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 24, 2026 9:35am ET $159.02 94 $14,947.88 $15,058.14 +$738.37
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
7.8d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $15,058.14
Net Profit/Loss: +$5,058.14
Total Return: +50.58%
Back to Marcus Reversal