Compendium › Marcus Reversal › XOM
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
XOM
Alpaca Tradeable

Marcus Reversal's Analysis

Last Month: 2026-04-06 to present • 4 trades in period

-13.66%
Last Month Return
$13,408.06
Current Value
0%
Win Rate
$15,529.91
Period Start
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PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Signals generated 2026-05-06 10:08:05

Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
74.9 overbought
20d Trend
+15.2%
5d Trend
+3.0%
EMA20 Dist
+5.9%
ATR%
2.4%
Range Pos
94%
Bounce Ratio
3.7×
Green/Red 10d
7/3
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

26
Lifetime
Confidence: 86%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
6.4/35
Total Return
12.8/25
Win Rate
2.6/15
Profit Factor
2.0/15
Consistency
6.1/10
Raw Quality 29.9/100
× Confidence 0.86 = 25.7

30-Day Momentum

1
-13.1%
30d Return
0%
Win Rate
4
Trades
0.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 1.4 Conf: 0.66×
Declining (-25 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (86%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,724
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-04-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
23 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$15,529.91
Current Value
$13,408.06
Period P&L
$-2,121.85
Max Drawdown
-18.5%
Sharpe Ratio
-4.83

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
4
Winners / Losers
0 / 4
Best Trade
-3.04%
Worst Trade
-4.72%
Avg Trade Return
-3.47%
Avg Hold Time
2.7d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$113,735.70
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-2,121.85
Net P&L (after fees)
$-2,121.85
Gross Return
-13.66%
Net Return (after fees)
-13.66%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 XOM Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 23 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 4 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $15,529.91 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2026 1:25pm ET $160.23 96 $15,382.09 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $152.67 96 $14,656.32 $14,707.19 $-725.77
(-4.7%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6.8d held
2 🟢 BUY Apr 9, 2026 11:20am ET $157.46 93 $14,643.78 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 10, 2026 10:25am ET $152.64 93 $14,195.52 $14,258.93 $-448.26
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
23.1h held
3 🟢 BUY Apr 13, 2026 10:45am ET $152.25 93 $14,159.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 14, 2026 9:35am ET $147.62 93 $13,728.66 $13,828.34 $-430.59
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
22.8h held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 15, 2026 9:45am ET $147.26 93 $13,695.18 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 17, 2026 10:35am ET $142.74 93 $13,274.90 $13,408.06 $-420.28
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $13,408.06
Net Profit/Loss: +$3,408.06
Total Return: +34.08%
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