ADBE Marcus Reversal's Analysis
Last Year: 2025-05-06 to present • 41 trades in period
-36.60%
Last Year Return
$6,045.63
Current Value
29%
Win Rate
$9,535.20
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
23.9 oversold
20d Trend
-14.4%
5d Trend
-9.1%
EMA20 Dist
-9.2%
ATR%
3.4%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 5, 2026
4
Lifetime
Confidence: 93%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.8/10
Raw Quality
3.8/100
× Confidence 0.93
= 3.5
30-Day Momentum
34
+8.9%
30d Return
60%
Win Rate
5
Trades
1.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 48.6
Conf: 0.70×
Accelerating (+31 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (93%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last Year)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
26,674
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-05-06 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
265 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)
Market Closed (10 days)
2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last Year)
Period Start Capital
$9,535.20
Current Value
$6,045.63
Period P&L
$-3,489.55
Max Drawdown
-42.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.22
Trade Statistics (Last Year)
Trades in Period
41
Winners / Losers
12 /
29
Best Trade
+6.97%
Worst Trade
-9.16%
Avg Trade Return
-0.93%
Avg Hold Time
7.5d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$608,105.09
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-3,489.55
Net P&L (after fees)
$-3,489.55
Gross Return
-36.60%
Net Return (after fees)
-36.60%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 ADBE Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 265 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last Year - 41 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $9,535.20 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2025 11:55am ET | $367.43 | 25 | $9,185.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2025 12:10pm ET | $386.38 | 25 | $9,659.50 | $9,693.91 |
+$473.88 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
8d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | May 7, 2025 2:05pm ET | $381.75 | 25 | $9,543.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 15, 2025 9:30am ET | $401.25 | 25 | $10,031.25 | $10,181.38 |
+$487.47 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7.8d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | May 16, 2025 12:05pm ET | $415.18 | 24 | $9,964.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 2, 2025 9:50am ET | $402.60 | 24 | $9,662.40 | $9,879.58 |
$-301.80 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
16.9d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 4, 2025 12:15pm ET | $414.15 | 23 | $9,525.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 13, 2025 9:30am ET | $393.39 | 23 | $9,047.86 | $9,401.99 |
$-477.60 (-5.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
8.9d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 16, 2025 11:10am ET | $395.69 | 23 | $9,100.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 17, 2025 1:40pm ET | $383.68 | 23 | $8,824.71 | $9,125.95 |
$-276.04 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 18, 2025 3:40pm ET | $378.40 | 24 | $9,081.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 10, 2025 9:40am ET | $366.14 | 24 | $8,787.36 | $8,831.71 |
$-294.24 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.8d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 11, 2025 9:40am ET | $368.59 | 23 | $8,477.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 31, 2025 12:45pm ET | $357.29 | 23 | $8,217.67 | $8,571.81 |
$-259.90 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.1d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 1, 2025 1:10pm ET | $350.42 | 24 | $8,410.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 4, 2025 1:55pm ET | $339.40 | 24 | $8,145.60 | $8,307.33 |
$-264.48 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 5, 2025 2:25pm ET | $339.93 | 24 | $8,158.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 15, 2025 1:35pm ET | $356.93 | 24 | $8,566.32 | $8,715.33 |
+$408.00 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
10d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 19, 2025 11:25am ET | $359.55 | 24 | $8,629.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 21, 2025 9:35am ET | $348.67 | 24 | $8,368.08 | $8,454.23 |
$-261.10 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 22, 2025 11:40am ET | $359.75 | 23 | $8,274.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 2, 2025 9:40am ET | $348.16 | 23 | $8,007.68 | $8,187.66 |
$-266.57 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
10.9d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 3, 2025 3:35pm ET | $346.02 | 23 | $7,958.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 4, 2025 9:30am ET | $335.08 | 23 | $7,706.84 | $7,936.16 |
$-251.51 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.9h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 5, 2025 10:45am ET | $347.94 | 22 | $7,654.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 18, 2025 9:30am ET | $367.94 | 22 | $8,094.68 | $8,376.16 |
+$440.00 (+5.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
13d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 19, 2025 9:35am ET | $365.16 | 22 | $8,033.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 24, 2025 9:30am ET | $351.97 | 22 | $7,743.34 | $8,085.93 |
$-290.23 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 26, 2025 10:55am ET | $355.25 | 22 | $7,815.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 1, 2025 9:40am ET | $344.54 | 22 | $7,579.77 | $7,850.31 |
$-235.62 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 3, 2025 11:30am ET | $349.68 | 22 | $7,692.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 10, 2025 11:30am ET | $338.87 | 22 | $7,455.14 | $7,612.47 |
$-237.84 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 13, 2025 12:35pm ET | $336.09 | 22 | $7,393.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 21, 2025 10:50am ET | $353.70 | 22 | $7,781.40 | $7,999.89 |
+$387.42 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7.9d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 22, 2025 1:50pm ET | $354.48 | 22 | $7,798.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 29, 2025 9:50am ET | $343.70 | 22 | $7,561.40 | $7,762.73 |
$-237.16 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.8d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 30, 2025 12:25pm ET | $342.36 | 22 | $7,532.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 5, 2025 11:00am ET | $331.40 | 22 | $7,290.80 | $7,521.50 |
$-241.23 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 7, 2025 9:35am ET | $327.56 | 22 | $7,206.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 19, 2025 10:00am ET | $317.31 | 22 | $6,980.71 | $7,295.89 |
$-225.61 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
12d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 20, 2025 11:20am ET | $317.06 | 23 | $7,292.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 5, 2025 9:30am ET | $336.14 | 23 | $7,731.11 | $7,734.61 |
+$438.72 (+6.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
14.9d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 8, 2025 9:30am ET | $345.68 | 22 | $7,604.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2026 10:25am ET | $335.00 | 22 | $7,370.00 | $7,499.76 |
$-234.85 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
25d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 10:55am ET | $328.68 | 22 | $7,230.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2026 10:05am ET | $318.44 | 22 | $7,005.57 | $7,274.48 |
$-225.28 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
8d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 14, 2026 10:20am ET | $306.80 | 23 | $7,056.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 16, 2026 9:50am ET | $297.52 | 23 | $6,842.96 | $7,061.04 |
$-213.44 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 9:50am ET | $290.13 | 24 | $6,963.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $304.97 | 24 | $7,319.16 | $7,417.08 |
+$356.04 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $300.05 | 24 | $7,201.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 9:35am ET | $290.59 | 24 | $6,974.04 | $7,189.92 |
$-227.16 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 30, 2026 3:10pm ET | $292.84 | 24 | $7,028.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $282.01 | 24 | $6,768.24 | $6,930.00 |
$-259.92 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $264.94 | 26 | $6,888.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 10:40am ET | $278.35 | 26 | $7,237.10 | $7,278.66 |
+$348.66 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.2h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 10:40am ET | $273.85 | 26 | $7,120.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 3:05pm ET | $265.50 | 26 | $6,903.00 | $7,061.56 |
$-217.10 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 3:20pm ET | $267.12 | 26 | $6,945.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET | $266.64 | 26 | $6,932.64 | $7,049.08 |
$-12.48 (-0.2%) |
📅 Sim Ended
36m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 10:00am ET | $258.56 | 27 | $6,981.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 9:40am ET | $250.43 | 27 | $6,761.61 | $6,829.57 |
$-219.51 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 24, 2026 11:35am ET | $253.48 | 26 | $6,590.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $267.15 | 26 | $6,945.90 | $7,185.12 |
+$355.55 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6.9d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 2:20pm ET | $274.83 | 26 | $7,145.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $252.22 | 26 | $6,557.72 | $6,597.26 |
$-587.86 (-8.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
8.8d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 2:20pm ET | $274.83 | 26 | $7,145.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $249.65 | 26 | $6,490.77 | $5,942.45 |
$-654.81 (-9.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.8d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $243.19 | 24 | $5,836.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 11:15am ET | $234.58 | 24 | $5,629.92 | $5,735.81 |
$-206.64 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 11:55am ET | $241.11 | 23 | $5,545.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 2:05pm ET | $233.15 | 23 | $5,362.56 | $5,552.84 |
$-182.97 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 2:05pm ET | $240.56 | 23 | $5,532.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $231.26 | 23 | $5,318.89 | $5,338.85 |
$-213.99 (-3.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
9.8d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 9:50am ET | $226.25 | 23 | $5,203.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 12:25pm ET | $237.69 | 23 | $5,466.87 | $5,601.97 |
+$263.12 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.1d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 2:00pm ET | $235.17 | 23 | $5,408.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $251.55 | 23 | $5,785.65 | $5,978.71 |
+$376.74 (+7.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.8d held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 11:30am ET | $247.74 | 24 | $5,945.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 9:40am ET | $238.41 | 24 | $5,721.84 | $5,754.79 |
$-223.92 (-3.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.9d held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $240.71 | 23 | $5,536.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 10:15am ET | $253.36 | 23 | $5,827.28 | $6,045.63 |
+$290.84 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$6,045.63
Net Profit/Loss:
$-3,954.37
Total Return:
-39.54%