ARKK Marcus Reversal's Analysis
Last Year: 2025-05-06 to present • 50 trades in period
+38.64%
Last Year Return
$12,160.83
Current Value
48%
Win Rate
$8,771.66
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
19.1 oversold
20d Trend
-20.9%
5d Trend
-12.4%
EMA20 Dist
-13.6%
ATR%
4.1%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.5×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 5, 2026
20
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
2.9/35
Total Return
11.3/25
Win Rate
0.6/15
Profit Factor
0.7/15
Consistency
4.6/10
Raw Quality
20.0/100
× Confidence 0.98
= 19.7
30-Day Momentum
51
+19.0%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
6
Trades
2.2×
Profit Factor
Quality: 68.6
Conf: 0.74×
Accelerating (+31 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last Year)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
29,490
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-05-06 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
264 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)
Market Closed (10 days)
2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last Year)
Period Start Capital
$8,771.66
Current Value
$12,160.83
Period P&L
$3,389.18
Max Drawdown
-26.4%
Sharpe Ratio
0.16
Trade Statistics (Last Year)
Trades in Period
50
Winners / Losers
24 /
26
Best Trade
+7.55%
Worst Trade
-6.38%
Avg Trade Return
+0.74%
Avg Hold Time
5.5d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,066,695.53
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$3,389.18
Net P&L (after fees)
$3,389.18
Gross Return
+38.64%
Net Return (after fees)
+38.64%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 ARKK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 264 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last Year - 50 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $8,771.66 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 25, 2025 1:50pm ET | $50.47 | 175 | $8,832.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2025 9:50am ET | $48.95 | 175 | $8,565.38 | $8,585.29 |
$-266.88 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
10.8d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | May 7, 2025 11:45am ET | $48.94 | 175 | $8,564.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 8, 2025 11:40am ET | $51.69 | 175 | $9,044.88 | $9,065.67 |
+$480.38 (+5.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.9h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | May 9, 2025 12:05pm ET | $51.30 | 176 | $9,028.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 12, 2025 9:30am ET | $54.14 | 176 | $9,528.01 | $9,564.88 |
+$499.21 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | May 14, 2025 10:40am ET | $57.51 | 166 | $9,546.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 21, 2025 3:05pm ET | $55.64 | 166 | $9,236.24 | $9,254.46 |
$-310.42 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7.2d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | May 22, 2025 3:40pm ET | $56.69 | 163 | $9,240.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 6, 2025 9:50am ET | $59.96 | 163 | $9,773.48 | $9,787.47 |
+$533.01 (+5.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
14.8d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 10, 2025 11:15am ET | $62.66 | 156 | $9,774.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 18, 2025 11:30am ET | $65.84 | 156 | $10,271.35 | $10,283.86 |
+$496.39 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
8d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 23, 2025 12:15pm ET | $68.49 | 150 | $10,273.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 9, 2025 9:35am ET | $71.94 | 150 | $10,790.25 | $10,800.61 |
+$516.75 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
15.9d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 11, 2025 9:40am ET | $72.88 | 148 | $10,786.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 17, 2025 3:05pm ET | $76.54 | 148 | $11,327.92 | $11,342.29 |
+$541.68 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6.2d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 21, 2025 11:25am ET | $78.66 | 144 | $11,327.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 22, 2025 9:45am ET | $75.66 | 144 | $10,895.04 | $10,910.29 |
$-432.00 (-3.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.3h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 23, 2025 1:00pm ET | $76.68 | 142 | $10,888.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 1, 2025 9:30am ET | $71.79 | 142 | $10,194.18 | $10,215.91 |
$-694.38 (-6.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
8.9d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 5, 2025 10:45am ET | $72.30 | 141 | $10,194.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 11, 2025 9:35am ET | $76.17 | 141 | $10,739.97 | $10,761.58 |
+$545.67 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 13, 2025 10:55am ET | $77.73 | 138 | $10,726.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 19, 2025 9:45am ET | $75.37 | 138 | $10,400.78 | $10,435.62 |
$-325.96 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 20, 2025 9:45am ET | $72.24 | 144 | $10,402.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 22, 2025 10:05am ET | $76.11 | 144 | $10,959.84 | $10,992.90 |
+$557.28 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 25, 2025 1:55pm ET | $76.03 | 144 | $10,948.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 2, 2025 9:30am ET | $73.30 | 144 | $10,555.20 | $10,599.78 |
$-393.12 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7.8d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 3, 2025 1:30pm ET | $74.81 | 141 | $10,547.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 12, 2025 2:30pm ET | $78.60 | 141 | $11,082.60 | $11,134.88 |
+$535.09 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
9d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 15, 2025 2:35pm ET | $79.22 | 140 | $11,090.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 18, 2025 2:30pm ET | $83.21 | 140 | $11,648.70 | $11,693.48 |
+$558.60 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 19, 2025 2:30pm ET | $84.41 | 138 | $11,647.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 25, 2025 9:30am ET | $80.97 | 138 | $11,173.86 | $11,219.45 |
$-474.03 (-4.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.8d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 26, 2025 11:05am ET | $81.53 | 137 | $11,169.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 29, 2025 3:40pm ET | $85.66 | 137 | $11,735.42 | $11,785.26 |
+$565.81 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.2d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 1, 2025 12:00pm ET | $87.12 | 135 | $11,760.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 6, 2025 1:15pm ET | $91.56 | 135 | $12,359.93 | $12,384.66 |
+$599.40 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.1d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 8, 2025 9:35am ET | $89.08 | 139 | $12,382.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 10, 2025 3:35pm ET | $86.27 | 139 | $11,991.53 | $11,994.07 |
$-390.59 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.3d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 14, 2025 9:30am ET | $84.83 | 141 | $11,961.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 15, 2025 9:55am ET | $89.29 | 141 | $12,589.93 | $12,622.97 |
+$628.90 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 16, 2025 11:40am ET | $88.32 | 142 | $12,541.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 17, 2025 10:55am ET | $85.58 | 142 | $12,152.36 | $12,233.89 |
$-389.08 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.3h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 20, 2025 2:15pm ET | $89.94 | 136 | $12,231.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 22, 2025 10:10am ET | $86.92 | 136 | $11,820.44 | $11,822.49 |
$-411.40 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 24, 2025 12:30pm ET | $89.17 | 132 | $11,770.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 30, 2025 2:40pm ET | $86.44 | 132 | $11,409.95 | $11,462.00 |
$-360.49 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.1d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 3, 2025 10:05am ET | $88.48 | 129 | $11,413.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 4, 2025 9:30am ET | $84.66 | 129 | $10,921.14 | $10,969.22 |
$-492.78 (-4.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.4h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 5, 2025 9:30am ET | $83.24 | 131 | $10,904.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 7, 2025 9:30am ET | $78.84 | 131 | $10,328.04 | $10,392.82 |
$-576.40 (-5.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 10, 2025 10:50am ET | $82.44 | 126 | $10,387.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 13, 2025 9:30am ET | $79.86 | 126 | $10,062.36 | $10,067.74 |
$-325.08 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 14, 2025 9:30am ET | $74.83 | 134 | $10,027.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 20, 2025 12:30pm ET | $72.46 | 134 | $9,709.64 | $9,750.16 |
$-317.58 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.1d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 21, 2025 1:15pm ET | $72.88 | 133 | $9,692.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 24, 2025 2:05pm ET | $76.54 | 133 | $10,179.82 | $10,237.60 |
+$487.45 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 28, 2025 12:20pm ET | $79.45 | 128 | $10,169.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 10, 2025 2:55pm ET | $83.54 | 128 | $10,693.12 | $10,760.97 |
+$523.37 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
12.1d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 12, 2025 10:25am ET | $81.08 | 132 | $10,702.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 17, 2025 1:45pm ET | $78.63 | 132 | $10,379.16 | $10,437.57 |
$-323.40 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.1d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 18, 2025 2:40pm ET | $78.81 | 132 | $10,402.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $82.94 | 132 | $10,948.08 | $10,982.73 |
+$545.16 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
25.8d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 14, 2026 9:35am ET | $82.95 | 132 | $10,949.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $79.66 | 132 | $10,514.46 | $10,547.79 |
$-434.94 (-4.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 11:40am ET | $79.08 | 133 | $10,517.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 10:40am ET | $76.67 | 133 | $10,197.11 | $10,227.26 |
$-320.53 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
8d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 30, 2026 11:20am ET | $75.59 | 135 | $10,204.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 12:10pm ET | $73.03 | 135 | $9,858.38 | $9,880.98 |
$-346.27 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 12:30pm ET | $69.13 | 142 | $9,816.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 10:10am ET | $66.91 | 142 | $9,501.22 | $9,565.74 |
$-315.24 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.7h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 2:05pm ET | $69.88 | 136 | $9,503.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET | $72.46 | 136 | $9,855.24 | $9,917.30 |
+$351.56 (+3.7%) |
📅 Sim Ended
3.1d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 3:55pm ET | $72.30 | 137 | $9,905.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 10:10am ET | $70.07 | 137 | $9,599.59 | $9,611.79 |
$-305.51 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.3h held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 9:55am ET | $68.75 | 139 | $9,556.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 18, 2026 10:40am ET | $72.35 | 139 | $10,055.96 | $10,110.80 |
+$499.01 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 20, 2026 12:10pm ET | $71.74 | 140 | $10,043.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 11:00am ET | $69.51 | 140 | $9,731.40 | $9,798.60 |
$-312.20 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 24, 2026 3:10pm ET | $71.81 | 136 | $9,765.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 5, 2026 9:55am ET | $75.40 | 136 | $10,254.40 | $10,287.52 |
+$488.92 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
8.8d held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 9:55am ET | $72.08 | 142 | $10,235.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $69.83 | 142 | $9,915.86 | $9,968.38 |
$-319.14 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
12.9d held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 9:40am ET | $70.30 | 141 | $9,912.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 12:30pm ET | $68.14 | 141 | $9,608.44 | $9,664.52 |
$-303.86 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.1d held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 12:40pm ET | $64.92 | 148 | $9,608.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $68.67 | 148 | $10,162.42 | $10,218.80 |
+$554.28 (+5.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $66.05 | 154 | $10,171.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 9:35am ET | $69.46 | 154 | $10,696.84 | $10,743.94 |
+$525.14 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4d held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 9:35am ET | $67.80 | 158 | $10,712.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $72.92 | 158 | $11,521.55 | $11,553.09 |
+$809.15 (+7.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.9h held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 10:10am ET | $68.65 | 168 | $11,533.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $73.53 | 168 | $12,353.04 | $12,372.93 |
+$819.84 (+7.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5d held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 9:55am ET | $75.90 | 163 | $12,371.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 10:30am ET | $79.82 | 163 | $13,010.66 | $13,011.89 |
+$638.96 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 49 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 11:05am ET | $77.94 | 166 | $12,938.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 1:45pm ET | $75.53 | 166 | $12,537.98 | $12,611.83 |
$-400.06 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.1d held |
|
| 50 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 24, 2026 3:00pm ET | $76.89 | 164 | $12,609.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $74.14 | 164 | $12,158.96 | $12,160.83 |
$-451.00 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.8d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$12,160.83
Net Profit/Loss:
+$2,160.83
Total Return:
+21.61%