Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Signals generated 2026-05-06 05:24:05

Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
68.2 neutral
20d Trend
+5.1%
5d Trend
+5.5%
EMA20 Dist
+3.1%
ATR%
1.8%
Range Pos
93%
Bounce Ratio
2.5×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 5, 2026

33
Lifetime
Confidence: 89%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
10.3/35
Total Return
14.7/25
Win Rate
4.1/15
Profit Factor
2.8/15
Consistency
5.4/10
Raw Quality 37.2/100
× Confidence 0.89 = 33.0

30-Day Momentum

28
+6.8%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
3
Trades
1.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 45.8 Conf: 0.61×
Cooling (-5 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (89%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Year)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
24,118
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-05-06 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
264 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)

Market Closed (10 days)

2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Year)

Period Start Capital
$16,887.83
Current Value
$15,792.10
Period P&L
$-1,095.72
Max Drawdown
-19.7%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.07

Trade Statistics (Last Year)

Trades in Period
20
Winners / Losers
7 / 13
Best Trade
+5.69%
Worst Trade
-4.48%
Avg Trade Return
-0.26%
Avg Hold Time
15.9d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$609,853.73
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,095.72
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,095.72
Gross Return
-6.49%
Net Return (after fees)
-6.49%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 COST Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 264 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Year - 20 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $16,887.83 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY May 6, 2025 9:30am ET $1,007.72 16 $16,123.52
🔴 SELL Jun 3, 2025 9:30am ET $1,065.03 16 $17,040.48 $17,804.78 +$916.96
(+5.7%)
🎯 +5% Target
28d held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 4, 2025 2:35pm ET $1,053.79 16 $16,860.64
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2025 10:20am ET $1,021.69 16 $16,346.96 $17,291.10 $-513.68
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
19.8h held
3 🟢 BUY Jun 6, 2025 11:45am ET $1,014.53 17 $17,246.96
🔴 SELL Jun 16, 2025 3:40pm ET $983.61 17 $16,721.29 $16,765.43 $-525.67
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
10.2d held
4 🟢 BUY Jun 20, 2025 11:55am ET $978.67 17 $16,637.39
🔴 SELL Jul 17, 2025 9:30am ET $948.68 17 $16,127.56 $16,255.60 $-509.83
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
26.9d held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 18, 2025 12:00pm ET $954.46 17 $16,225.82
🔴 SELL Jul 30, 2025 3:50pm ET $925.79 17 $15,738.48 $15,768.26 $-487.34
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
12.2d held
6 🟢 BUY Aug 1, 2025 1:35pm ET $951.71 16 $15,227.28
🔴 SELL Sep 2, 2025 9:30am ET $942.00 16 $15,072.00 $15,612.98 $-155.28
(-1.0%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
31.8d held
7 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2025 1:45pm ET $955.11 16 $15,281.76
🔴 SELL Sep 26, 2025 9:30am ET $912.31 16 $14,596.96 $14,928.18 $-684.80
(-4.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
21.8d held
8 🟢 BUY Sep 29, 2025 9:30am ET $911.72 16 $14,587.52
🔴 SELL Oct 15, 2025 9:40am ET $960.48 16 $15,367.63 $15,708.29 +$780.11
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
16d held
9 🟢 BUY Oct 16, 2025 9:40am ET $947.39 16 $15,158.24
🔴 SELL Oct 29, 2025 9:30am ET $916.65 16 $14,666.40 $15,216.45 $-491.84
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
13d held
10 🟢 BUY Oct 31, 2025 9:30am ET $913.63 16 $14,618.09
🔴 SELL Nov 19, 2025 9:40am ET $883.93 16 $14,142.88 $14,741.24 $-475.21
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
19.1d held
11 🟢 BUY Nov 20, 2025 11:10am ET $895.63 16 $14,330.08
🔴 SELL Dec 12, 2025 1:00pm ET $868.00 16 $13,888.02 $14,299.18 $-442.06
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
22.1d held
12 🟢 BUY Dec 15, 2025 1:00pm ET $855.91 16 $13,694.48
🔴 SELL Jan 8, 2026 9:30am ET $899.00 16 $14,384.00 $14,988.70 +$689.52
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
23.9d held
13 🟢 BUY Jan 9, 2026 2:05pm ET $925.61 16 $14,809.76
🔴 SELL Jan 21, 2026 10:05am ET $972.18 16 $15,554.80 $15,733.74 +$745.04
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
11.8d held
14 🟢 BUY Jan 22, 2026 10:05am ET $973.33 16 $15,573.20
🔴 SELL Jan 30, 2026 9:40am ET $940.68 16 $15,050.88 $15,211.42 $-522.32
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
8d held
15 🟢 BUY Feb 3, 2026 1:45pm ET $982.92 15 $14,743.73
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET $997.58 15 $14,963.70 $15,431.39 +$219.97
(+1.5%)
📅 Sim Ended
6.1d held
16 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 10:40am ET $1,013.26 15 $15,198.96
🔴 SELL Feb 20, 2026 9:30am ET $979.16 15 $14,687.43 $14,919.86 $-511.53
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
17 🟢 BUY Feb 23, 2026 9:35am ET $981.66 15 $14,724.90
🔴 SELL Mar 25, 2026 10:35am ET $973.19 15 $14,597.85 $14,792.81 $-127.05
(-0.9%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
30d held
18 🟢 BUY Mar 26, 2026 2:50pm ET $983.00 15 $14,745.00
🔴 SELL Apr 9, 2026 10:00am ET $1,033.57 15 $15,503.62 $15,551.43 +$758.62
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
13.8d held
19 🟢 BUY Apr 10, 2026 10:00am ET $1,009.13 15 $15,136.95
🔴 SELL Apr 14, 2026 9:30am ET $974.01 15 $14,610.15 $15,024.63 $-526.80
(-3.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held
20 🟢 BUY Apr 15, 2026 9:30am ET $970.03 15 $14,550.45
🔴 SELL May 1, 2026 9:30am ET $1,021.20 15 $15,317.93 $15,792.10 +$767.47
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
16d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $15,792.10
Net Profit/Loss: +$5,792.10
Total Return: +57.92%
Back to Marcus Reversal