Compendium › Marcus Reversal › DIA
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
DIA
Alpaca Tradeable

Marcus Reversal's Analysis

Last Year: 2025-05-06 to present • 14 trades in period

+17.09%
Last Year Return
$11,260.78
Current Value
64%
Win Rate
$9,617.42
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-05-06 11:11:41

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
47 neutral
20d Trend
-0.8%
5d Trend
-0.1%
EMA20 Dist
-0.5%
ATR%
1.0%
Range Pos
78%
Bounce Ratio
1.0×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

19
Lifetime
Confidence: 76%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
2.1/35
Total Return
9.4/25
Win Rate
5.7/15
Profit Factor
1.3/15
Consistency
6.9/10
Raw Quality 25.5/100
× Confidence 0.76 = 19.3

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (76%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Year)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
30,590
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-05-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
265 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)

Market Closed (10 days)

2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Year)

Period Start Capital
$9,617.42
Current Value
$11,260.78
Period P&L
$1,643.37
Max Drawdown
-20.7%
Sharpe Ratio
0.36

Trade Statistics (Last Year)

Trades in Period
14
Winners / Losers
9 / 5
Best Trade
+5.10%
Worst Trade
-3.39%
Avg Trade Return
+1.16%
Avg Hold Time
22.3d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$299,225.88
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,643.37
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,643.37
Gross Return
+17.09%
Net Return (after fees)
+17.09%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 DIA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 265 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Year - 14 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $9,617.42 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY May 2, 2025 1:20pm ET $412.79 23 $9,494.17 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 2, 2025 9:30am ET $422.11 23 $9,708.53 $9,889.97 +$214.36
(+2.3%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
30.8d held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 4, 2025 12:10pm ET $425.64 23 $9,789.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 3, 2025 9:45am ET $447.23 23 $10,286.31 $10,386.56 +$496.59
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
28.9d held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2025 12:40pm ET $443.34 23 $10,196.82 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 6, 2025 12:40pm ET $442.09 23 $10,168.07 $10,357.81 $-28.75
(-0.3%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
30d held
4 🟢 BUY Aug 8, 2025 11:15am ET $440.99 23 $10,142.77 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 8, 2025 9:30am ET $454.91 23 $10,462.93 $10,677.97 +$320.16
(+3.2%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
30.9d held
5 🟢 BUY Sep 10, 2025 10:55am ET $455.69 23 $10,480.87 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 10, 2025 10:55am ET $462.50 23 $10,637.50 $10,834.60 +$156.63
(+1.5%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
30d held
6 🟢 BUY Oct 14, 2025 9:30am ET $456.60 23 $10,501.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 29, 2025 9:40am ET $479.88 23 $11,037.13 $11,369.93 +$535.33
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
15d held
7 🟢 BUY Oct 30, 2025 12:25pm ET $478.71 23 $11,010.33 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 18, 2025 9:30am ET $462.47 23 $10,636.81 $10,996.41 $-373.52
(-3.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
18.9d held
8 🟢 BUY Nov 19, 2025 9:35am ET $461.65 23 $10,617.95 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 11, 2025 9:40am ET $484.87 23 $11,152.01 $11,530.47 +$534.06
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
22d held
9 🟢 BUY Dec 12, 2025 10:55am ET $486.17 23 $11,181.91 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 12, 2026 9:30am ET $490.35 23 $11,277.94 $11,626.49 +$96.03
(+0.9%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
30.9d held
10 🟢 BUY Jan 13, 2026 9:35am ET $494.13 23 $11,364.99 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET $501.33 23 $11,530.59 $11,792.09 +$165.60
(+1.5%) 		📅 Sim Ended
27.3d held
11 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 3:30pm ET $495.95 23 $11,406.85 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 3, 2026 9:30am ET $480.27 23 $11,046.21 $11,431.45 $-360.64
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
13.8d held
12 🟢 BUY Mar 4, 2026 9:40am ET $484.78 23 $11,149.94 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 9, 2026 9:35am ET $469.92 23 $10,808.16 $11,089.67 $-341.78
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
5d held
13 🟢 BUY Mar 10, 2026 10:10am ET $475.34 23 $10,932.82 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 19, 2026 9:30am ET $459.83 23 $10,576.20 $10,733.05 $-356.62
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
9d held
14 🟢 BUY Mar 20, 2026 9:40am ET $458.67 23 $10,549.41 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 9, 2026 12:05pm ET $481.61 23 $11,077.14 $11,260.78 +$527.73
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
20.1d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $11,260.78
Net Profit/Loss: +$1,260.78
Total Return: +12.61%
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