HD Marcus Reversal's Analysis
Last Year: 2025-05-06 to present • 29 trades in period
-20.35%
Last Year Return
$8,703.82
Current Value
31%
Win Rate
$10,928.14
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
58.5 neutral
20d Trend
+2.0%
5d Trend
+2.1%
EMA20 Dist
+1.4%
ATR%
2.0%
Range Pos
82%
Bounce Ratio
0.9×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026
5
Lifetime
Confidence: 90%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.2/10
Raw Quality
5.2/100
× Confidence 0.90
= 4.6
30-Day Momentum
1
-4.2%
30d Return
25%
Win Rate
4
Trades
0.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 1.4
Conf: 0.66×
Cooling (-4 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (90%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last Year)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
23,244
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-05-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
264 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)
Market Closed (10 days)
2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last Year)
Period Start Capital
$10,928.14
Current Value
$8,703.82
Period P&L
$-2,224.32
Max Drawdown
-19.9%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.19
Trade Statistics (Last Year)
Trades in Period
29
Winners / Losers
9 /
20
Best Trade
+5.72%
Worst Trade
-3.57%
Avg Trade Return
-0.70%
Avg Hold Time
11.1d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$610,543.65
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-2,224.32
Net P&L (after fees)
$-2,224.32
Gross Return
-20.35%
Net Return (after fees)
-20.35%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 HD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 264 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last Year - 29 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $10,928.14 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 24, 2025 11:40am ET | $357.16 | 30 | $10,714.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 12, 2025 9:30am ET | $377.60 | 30 | $11,328.00 | $11,456.15 |
+$613.20 (+5.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
17.9d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | May 13, 2025 12:00pm ET | $375.02 | 30 | $11,250.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 23, 2025 9:30am ET | $362.56 | 30 | $10,876.80 | $11,082.40 |
$-373.75 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
9.9d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | May 28, 2025 1:55pm ET | $368.54 | 30 | $11,056.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 13, 2025 12:25pm ET | $357.42 | 30 | $10,722.60 | $10,748.80 |
$-333.60 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
15.9d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 17, 2025 9:35am ET | $352.14 | 30 | $10,564.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 27, 2025 12:25pm ET | $370.09 | 30 | $11,102.70 | $11,287.30 |
+$538.50 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
10.1d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 30, 2025 2:35pm ET | $366.05 | 30 | $10,981.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 16, 2025 11:15am ET | $354.34 | 30 | $10,630.20 | $10,936.00 |
$-351.30 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
15.9d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 18, 2025 9:35am ET | $358.55 | 30 | $10,756.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 23, 2025 1:35pm ET | $377.50 | 30 | $11,325.00 | $11,504.65 |
+$568.65 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.2d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 24, 2025 3:35pm ET | $373.19 | 30 | $11,195.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 12, 2025 9:45am ET | $393.08 | 30 | $11,792.25 | $12,101.35 |
+$596.70 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18.8d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 14, 2025 9:30am ET | $401.67 | 30 | $12,049.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 11, 2025 10:40am ET | $421.88 | 30 | $12,656.25 | $12,707.65 |
+$606.30 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
28.1d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 15, 2025 9:35am ET | $418.47 | 30 | $12,554.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 29, 2025 10:10am ET | $405.87 | 30 | $12,176.10 | $12,329.65 |
$-378.00 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
14d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 30, 2025 10:35am ET | $404.20 | 30 | $12,125.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 6, 2025 9:30am ET | $391.93 | 30 | $11,757.90 | $11,961.70 |
$-367.95 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 7, 2025 9:40am ET | $386.36 | 30 | $11,590.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 3, 2025 10:25am ET | $374.49 | 30 | $11,234.55 | $11,605.45 |
$-356.25 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
27.1d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 5, 2025 9:40am ET | $380.21 | 30 | $11,406.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 6, 2025 10:00am ET | $368.16 | 30 | $11,044.80 | $11,243.95 |
$-361.50 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 7, 2025 12:30pm ET | $371.00 | 30 | $11,130.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 17, 2025 10:10am ET | $359.63 | 30 | $10,788.90 | $10,902.78 |
$-341.17 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
9.9d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 18, 2025 10:10am ET | $346.05 | 31 | $10,727.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 19, 2025 9:40am ET | $334.15 | 31 | $10,358.65 | $10,533.88 |
$-368.90 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.5h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 20, 2025 11:35am ET | $335.36 | 31 | $10,396.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 25, 2025 3:05pm ET | $352.13 | 31 | $10,916.03 | $11,053.75 |
+$519.87 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.1d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 26, 2025 3:55pm ET | $355.52 | 31 | $11,021.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 10, 2025 9:30am ET | $344.68 | 31 | $10,684.93 | $10,717.55 |
$-336.19 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
13.7d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 11, 2025 1:15pm ET | $359.61 | 29 | $10,428.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 19, 2025 10:05am ET | $348.26 | 29 | $10,099.54 | $10,388.40 |
$-329.15 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7.9d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 22, 2025 1:50pm ET | $347.04 | 29 | $10,064.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 9, 2026 9:55am ET | $365.11 | 29 | $10,588.05 | $10,912.29 |
+$523.89 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
17.8d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 12, 2026 2:15pm ET | $374.69 | 29 | $10,865.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET | $381.28 | 29 | $11,057.12 | $11,103.54 |
+$191.25 (+1.8%) |
📅 Sim Ended
28.1d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 9:40am ET | $387.42 | 28 | $10,847.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 9:55am ET | $375.37 | 28 | $10,510.36 | $10,766.14 |
$-337.40 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 24, 2026 1:00pm ET | $387.52 | 27 | $10,463.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2026 10:00am ET | $374.10 | 27 | $10,100.70 | $10,403.80 |
$-362.34 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 26, 2026 11:45am ET | $376.38 | 27 | $10,162.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $362.99 | 27 | $9,800.73 | $10,042.27 |
$-361.53 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.9d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 9:35am ET | $363.35 | 27 | $9,810.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 9:35am ET | $350.36 | 27 | $9,459.63 | $9,691.58 |
$-350.69 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 2:55pm ET | $358.27 | 27 | $9,673.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $346.21 | 27 | $9,347.67 | $9,365.96 |
$-325.62 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 13, 2026 3:50pm ET | $338.36 | 27 | $9,135.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 10:25am ET | $327.79 | 27 | $8,850.33 | $9,080.57 |
$-285.39 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.8d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 10:30am ET | $325.53 | 27 | $8,789.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 3:05pm ET | $315.74 | 27 | $8,524.98 | $8,816.24 |
$-264.33 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.2d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 3:10pm ET | $335.02 | 26 | $8,710.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $352.00 | 26 | $9,152.00 | $9,257.59 |
+$441.35 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
12.8d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 22, 2026 11:45am ET | $340.91 | 27 | $9,204.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 9:50am ET | $330.61 | 27 | $8,926.34 | $8,979.36 |
$-278.23 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.9d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 9:50am ET | $320.92 | 27 | $8,664.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 5, 2026 9:45am ET | $310.71 | 27 | $8,389.17 | $8,703.82 |
$-275.54 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$8,703.82
Net Profit/Loss:
$-1,296.18
Total Return:
-12.96%